arXiv research

We propose a new blind source separation algorithm based on mixtures of alpha-stable distributions. Complex symmetric alpha-stable distributions have been recently showed to better model audio signals in the time-frequency domain than classical Gaussian distributions thanks to their larger dynamic range. However, infer…

A new distribution family extends the $\alpha$-stable distribution with a degree of freedom parameter.

Modeling risk and performance with Levy-stable distributions.

The study assesses how financial markets' efficiency changed during the COVID-19 crisis.

This paper applies Thompson Sampling to asymmetric $\alpha$-stable bandits for financial and wireless data.

The real homology of a compact, n-dimensional Riemannian manifold M is naturally endowed with the stable norm. The stable norm of a homology class is the minimal Riemannian volume of its representatives. If M is orientable the stable norm on H_{n-1}(M,R) is a homogenized version of the Riemannian (n-1)-volume. We study…

Financial time series typically exhibit strong fluctuations that cannot be described by a Gaussian distribution. In recent empirical studies of stock market indices it was examined whether the distribution P(r) of returns r(tau) after some time tau can be described by a (truncated) Levy-stable distribution L_{alpha}(r)…

Adaptive estimation of alpha-Stable distribution and Hurst exponent for nonstationary time series.

This paper focuses on single-channel semi-supervised speech enhancement. We learn a speaker-independent deep generative speech model using the framework of variational autoencoders. The noise model remains unsupervised because we do not assume prior knowledge of the noisy recording environment. In this context, our con…

Upper bound on withdrawal success for geometric Levy alpha-stable wealth process.

This paper models cryptocurrencies using $\alpha$-stable distributions, outperforming other models.

An explicit expression is obtained for the sectional curvature in the plane spanned by two stationary flows, cos(k, x) and cos(l, x). It is shown that for certain values of the wave vectors k and l the curvature becomes positive for alpha > alpha_0, where 0 < alpha_0 < 1 is of the order 1/k. This suggests that the flow…

We give a purely algebro-geometric proof that if the alpha-invariant of a Q-Fano variety X is greater than dim X/(dim X+1), then (X,O(-K_X)) is K-stable. The key of our proof is a relation among the Seshadri constants, the alpha-invariant and K-stability. It also gives applications concerning the automorphism group.

Tian's criterion for K-stability states that a Fano variety of dimension $n$ whose alpha invariant is greater than $\frac{n}{n+1}$ is K-stable. We show that this criterion is sharp by constructing singular Fano varieties with alpha invariants $\frac{n}{n+1}$ that are not K-polystable for sufficiently large $n$. We also…

We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price series level shifts which are not accurately modeled in the standard Gaussian error correction mo…

Statistic dynamics of financial systems is investigated, basing on a model of randomly coupled equation system driven by stochastic Langevin force. It is found that in stable regime the noise power spectrum of the system is of 1/f^alpha form, with the exponent alpha=3/2 in case of Hermitian coupling matrices, or slight…

We show that any $n$-dimensional Fano manifold $X$ with $α(X)=n/(n+1)$ and $n\geq 2$ is K-stable, where $α(X)$ is the alpha invariant of $X$ introduced by Tian. In particular, any such $X$ admits Kähler-Einstein metrics and the holomorphic automorphism group of $X$ is finite.

Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss…

We provide a sufficient condition for polarisations of Fano varieties to be K-stable in terms of Tian's alpha invariant, which uses the log canonical threshold to measure singularities of divisors in the linear system associated to the polarisation. This generalises a result of Odaka-Sano in the anti-canonically polari…

We prove that every birationally superrigid Fano variety whose alpha invariant is greater than (resp. no smaller than) $\frac{1}{2}$ is K-stable (resp. K-semistable). We also prove that the alpha invariant of a birationally superrigid Fano variety of dimension $n$ is at least $\frac{1}{n+1}$ (under mild assumptions) an…

PPO optimizes LLM-generated alpha weights for better trading performance.

MAFLA improves sampling from heavy-tailed distributions using MH-inspired corrections.

Alpha-based performance evaluation may fail to capture correlated residuals due to model errors. This paper proposes using the Generalized Information Ratio (GIR) to measure performance under misspecified benchmarks. Motivated by the theoretical link between abnormal returns and residual covariance matrix, GIR is deriv…

Unbiased methods for alpha-divergence minimization struggle in high dimensions.

We compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{FTSE100,+} and F{FTSE100,-} of the normalized positive and negative FTSE100 (UK) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled FTSE100 daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns (-r(t))^alpha that we call, aft…

We give an explicit algorithm and source code for combining alpha streams via bounded regression. In practical applications typically there is insufficient history to compute a sample covariance matrix (SCM) for a large number of alphas. To compute alpha allocation weights, one then resorts to (weighted) regression ove…

In terms of the stock exchange returns, we compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{DAX,+} and F{DAX,-} of the normalized positive and negative DAX (Germany) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled DAX daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns (-…

We prove that a stable minimal hypersurface of an open ball having a singular set of locally finite codimension 2 Hausdorff measure which is weakly close to a multiplicity 2 hyperplane is a 2-valued C^{1, alpha} graph in the interior. Applications including a compactness theorem for a class of immersed stable minimal h…

It has long been agreed by academics that the inversion method is the method of choice for generating random variates, given the availability of the quantile function. However for several probability distributions arising in practice a satisfactory method of approximating these functions is not available. The main focu…

Study on non-negative solutions for stochastic Volterra equations with jumps.

Approximate algorithms for structured prediction problems---such as LP relaxations and the popular alpha-expansion algorithm (Boykov et al. 2001)---typically far exceed their theoretical performance guarantees on real-world instances. These algorithms often find solutions that are very close to optimal. The goal of thi…

We describe the underlying probabilistic interpretation of alpha and beta divergences. We first show that beta divergences are inherently tied to Tweedie distributions, a particular type of exponential family, known as exponential dispersion models. Starting from the variance function of a Tweedie model, we outline how…

New $\alpha$-divergence loss function improves neural density ratio estimation.

In this work, a statistical analysis of the distribution of daily fluctuations of the IPC, the Mexican Stock Market Index is presented. A sample of the IPC covering the 13-year period 04/19/1990 - 08/21/2003 was analyzed and the cumulative probability distribution of its daily logarithmic variations studied. Results sh…

We exploit the spinor description of four-dimensional Walker geometry, and conformal rescalings of such, to describe the local geometry of four-dimensional neutral geometries with algebraically degenerate self-dual Weyl curvature and an integrable distribution of alpha-planes (algebraically special real alpha-geometry)…

This paper studies geometrical structure of the manifold of escort probability distributions and shows its new applicability to information science. In order to realize escort probabilities we use a conformal transformation that flattens so-called alpha-geometry of the space of discrete probability distributions, which…

The global log canonical threshold (or Tian's alpha-invariant) plays an important role in the geometry of Fano varieties. Tian showed that Fano manifolds with big alpha-invariant can be equipped with a Kahler-Einstein metric. In recent years Donaldson drafted a programme to determine when a smooth Fano variety X admits…

In the present paper we study locally semiflat (we also call them semiintegrable) almost Grassmann structures. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for an almost Grassmann structure to be alpha- or beta-semiintegrable. These conditions are expressed in terms of the fundamental tensors of almost Grassmann st…

The probability distribution of stock price changes is studied by analyzing a database (the Trades and Quotes Database) documenting every trade for all stocks in three major US stock markets, for the two year period Jan 1994 -- Dec 1995. A sample of 40 million data points is extracted, which is substantially larger tha…

Study analyzes smart contract adoption under bounded risk, showing stable adoption but fragile financial outcomes.

Using as an underlying manifold an alpha-Sasakian manifold we introduce warped product Kaehler manifolds. We prove that if the underlying manifold is an alpha-Sasakian space form, then the corresponding Kaehler manifold is of quasi-constant holomorphic sectional curvatures with special distribution. Conversely, we prov…

Benchmark detects decision-time leakage in financial backtests.

By a real alphabeta-geometry we mean a four-dimensional manifold M equipped with a neutral metric h such that (M,h) admits both an integrable distribution of alpha-planes and an integrable distribution of beta-planes. We obtain a local characterization of the metric when at least one of the distributions is parallel (i…

Paper proposes a new REINFORCE algorithm for mining formulaic alpha factors with reduced variance.

QuantaAlpha uses evolutionary algorithms to mine financial alpha robustly across market distributions.

In light of the power problems of statistical tests and undisciplined use of alpha-based statistics to compare models, this paper proposes a unified set of distance-based performance metrics, derived as the square root of the sum of squared alphas and squared standard errors. The Bayesian investor views model performan…

Alpha2 discovers logical formulaic alphas using deep reinforcement learning.

A fast method for estimating radar amplitude density parameters.