A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This study examines local co-movements in energy, agriculture, and metal markets using copulas.
Study reveals dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets.
In this paper we investigate the adaptive market efficiency of the agricultural commodity futures market, using a sample of eight futures contracts. Using a battery of nonlinear tests, we uncover the nonlinear serial dependence in the returns series. We run the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test to uncover the momen…
We analyze the market efficiency of 25 commodity futures across various groups -- metals, energies, softs, grains and other agricultural commodities. To do so, we utilize recently proposed Efficiency Index to find that the most efficient of all the analyzed commodities is heating oil, closely followed by WTI crude oil,…
Python tool assesses European agricultural production resilience.
This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to value quality options in agricultural futures contracts.
In developing countries like India agriculture plays an extremely important role in the lives of the population. In India, around 80\% of the population depend on agriculture or its by-products as the primary means for employment. Given large population dependency on agriculture, it becomes extremely important for the …
This study analyzes the correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets using RMT.
Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers - are studied using the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. We account for the p…
In this article, we analyze the application of options contract in special commodity supply chain such as fresh agricultural products. This problem is discussed in the point of the retailer. When spot market and future market are both available, we discuss how the retailer chooses the optimal production. Furthermore, o…
We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the a…
Commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a significant part of the rapidly growing ETF market. They have become popular in recent years as they provide investors access to a great variety of commodities, ranging from precious metals to building materials, and from oil and gas to agricultural products. In this article…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the market's expectation and is often used as an ex-ante measure of the investor sentiment.…
This thesis applies RL to market making in China's commodity market.
In this study, we applied a stochastic spread pairs trading strategy on the Indian commodity market. The complete set of commodities were taken whose spot price was available for the period of January 1st 2010 to December 31st 2018 including energy, metals and the agricultural commodity sector. Spot data was taken from…
Commodity ETFs' portfolio optimization under heavy-tailed returns.
We propose a stylized model of production and exchange in which long-term investors set their production decision over a horizon τ , the "time to produce", and are liquidity constrained, while financial investors trade over a much shorter horizon δ (<< τ ) and are therefore more duly informed on the exogenous shocks af…
Study forecasts vegetable prices in Nepal using a novel index and ensemble model.
Models assess how USDA orange production forecasts impact FCOJ market decisions.
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and five different specifications of the seasonality pattern are proposed. We calcula…
SAGDA generates synthetic agricultural datasets to improve ML in African farming.
Study measures risk spillovers between US and China's agricultural futures markets.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
The paper examines spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon, and climate markets.
Crop yield forecasting is the methodology of predicting crop yields prior to harvest. The availability of accurate yield prediction frameworks have enormous implications from multiple standpoints, including impact on the crop commodity futures markets, formulation of agricultural policy, as well as crop insurance ratin…
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value …
Study improves paddy rice yield predictions in Peru using sparse regression and climatic variables.
Precision farming uses data analysis to optimize crop management.
Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts th…
Study finds farmers are willing to pay higher premiums for higher coverage in agricultural insurance.
Recent introduction of ICT in agriculture has brought a number of changes in the way farming is done. This means use of Internet of Things(IoT), Cloud Computing(CC), Big Data (BD) and automation to gain better control over the process of farming. As the use of these technologies in farms has grown exponentially with ma…
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
Deep learning predicts crop prices with improved accuracy.
Study reveals clusters of resilient and vulnerable Spanish agri-food firms post-Ukraine-Russia war.
We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuat…
Generic model for commodity derivatives pricing.
Botswana's agricultural credit scheme is unsustainable and needs reform.
Model prices commodity futures and index options.
Study finds multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and external uncertainties.
This study examines how economic policy uncertainty impacts commodity prices across different crises.
We analyze daily prices of 29 commodities and 2449 stocks, each over a period of years. We find that the price fluctuations for commodities have a significantly broader multifractal spectrum than for stocks. We also propose that multifractal properties of both stocks and commodities can be attributed mainl…
In this model study of the commodity market, we present some evidence of competition of commodities for the status of money in the regime of parameters, where emergence of money is possible. The competition reveals itself as a rivalry of a few (typically two) dominant commodities, which take the status of money in turn…
We study the topological properties of the multinetwork of commodity-specific trade relations among world countries over the 1992-2003 period, comparing them with those of the aggregate-trade network, known in the literature as the international-trade network (ITN). We show that link-weight distributions of commodity-s…
Generative models improve commodity hedging using deep learning.
The paper analyzes the crash of stock and commodity markets during COVID-19 using Topological Data Analysis.
The paper develops a new model for rough volatility in commodity markets.
We investigate an economic system in which one large agent - the Japan government changes the environment of numerous smaller agents - the Japan agriculture producers by indirect regulation of prices of agriculture goods. The reason for this intervention was that before the oil crisis in 1974 Japan agriculture producti…
Develops adaptive algorithms for sustainable fertilizer use in agriculture.