A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Self-training with noisy student-teacher boosts keyword spotting accuracy.
The diagonal effect of orders is well documented in different markets, which states that orders are more likely to be followed by orders of the same aggressiveness and implies the presence of short-term correlations in order flows. Based on the order flow data of 43 Chinese stocks, we investigate if there are long-rang…
The last financial and economic crisis demonstrated the dysfunctional long-term effects of aggressive behaviour in financial markets. Yet, evolutionary game theory predicts that under the condition of strategic dependence a certain degree of aggressive behaviour remains within a given population of agents. However, as …
Price changes are induced by aggressive market orders in stock market. We introduce a bivariate marked Hawkes process to model aggressive market order arrivals at the microstructural level. The order arrival intensity is marked by an exogenous part and two endogenous processes reflecting the self-excitation and cross-e…
New online learning algorithm combines PA and TER for binary classification.
Stabilizes online learning by using weighted reservoir sampling.
A method learns common bias for multiple low-variance tasks without hyper-parameter tuning.
Models predict order book recovery from aggressive trading follows a simple t^1/3 scaling.
New theory shows alliances neither deter nor provoke aggression.
Addressing the ongoing examination of high-frequency trading practices in financial markets, we report the results of an extensive empirical study estimating the maximum possible profitability of the most aggressive such practices, and arrive at figures that are surprisingly modest. By "aggressive" we mean any trading …
Machine learning detects road anomalies and aggressive driving from smartphone data.
We propose a general framework to describe the impact of different events in the order book, that generalizes previous work on the impact of market orders. Two different modeling routes can be considered, which are equivalent when only market orders are taken into account. One model posits that each event type has a te…
Paper uses stats to predict treatment choice based on illness probability.
A survey of existing methods for stopping active learning (AL) reveals the needs for methods that are: more widely applicable; more aggressive in saving annotations; and more stable across changing datasets. A new method for stopping AL based on stabilizing predictions is presented that addresses these needs. Furthermo…
CSER improves SGD efficiency by resetting errors and partial synchronization.
New research shows IBM's GDX algorithm outperforms Vytelingum's Adaptive-Aggressive strategy in market simulations.
Urban traffic systems worldwide are suffering from severe traffic safety problems. Traffic safety is affected by many complex factors, and heavily related to all drivers' behaviors involved in traffic system. Drivers with aggressive driving behaviors increase the risk of traffic accidents. In order to manage the safety…
Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic point-estimation problems governed by a set of user-defined hyperparameters: the a…
In order-driven markets, limit-order book (LOB) resiliency is an important microscopic indicator of market quality when the order book is hit by a liquidity shock and plays an essential role in the design of optimal submission strategies of large orders. However, the evolutionary behavior of LOB resilience around liqui…
The kind of realized mission inflows the sensitivity to risk. Among other factors, the risk results from decision about liquid assets investment level and liquid assets financing. The higher the risk exposure, the higher the level of liquid assets. If the specific risk exposure is smaller, the more aggressive could be …
Investors' strategies in a market influenced by price impact are analyzed, showing aggressive behavior when impact exceeds a critical point.
Detecting aggressive cancer tumors using ctDNA dynamics from few blood samples.
New method preserves spectral clustering performance under aggressive sparsification and quantization.
The study analyzes how large language models form and express investor risk profiles.
In this paper, we propose exact passive-aggressive (PA) online algorithms for learning to rank. The proposed algorithms can be used even when we have interval labels instead of actual labels for examples. The proposed algorithms solve a convex optimization problem at every trial. We find exact solution to those optimiz…
The paper examines how random seed affects model stability and proposes ASWA and NASWA techniques to improve model robustness.
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
We consider the problem of demixing a sequence of source signals from the sum of noisy bilinear measurements. It is a generalized mathematical model for blind demixing with blind deconvolution, which is prevalent across the areas of dictionary learning, image processing, and communications. However, state-of- the-art c…
The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF…
Experience replay is an important technique for addressing sample-inefficiency in deep reinforcement learning (RL), but faces difficulty in learning from binary and sparse rewards due to disproportionately few successful experiences in the replay buffer. Hindsight experience replay (HER) was recently proposed to tackle…
RSO uses random weight perturbations to train deep networks without gradients.
We propose a design for schedule-based execution trading strategies based on uncertainty bands. This formulation: 1) simplifies strategy specification and implementation; 2) provides for flexible allocation among passive, opportunistic, aggressive, and dark pool crossing execution tactics; 3) allows for rapid enhanceme…
A model of open economics composed of producers and speculators is investigated by numerical simulations. The capital flows from the environment to the producers and from them to the speculators. The price fluctuations are suppressed by the speculators. When the aggressivity of the speculators grows, there is a transit…
Modern deep learning models are often trained in parallel over a collection of distributed machines to reduce training time. In such settings, communication of model updates among machines becomes a significant performance bottleneck and various lossy update compression techniques have been proposed to alleviate this p…
Driving styles have a great influence on vehicle fuel economy, active safety, and drivability. To recognize driving styles of path-tracking behaviors for different divers, a statistical pattern-recognition method is developed to deal with the uncertainty of driving styles or characteristics based on probability density…
Paper introduces new risk measures for Kelly criterion.
We analyse all Mini Flash Crashes (or Flash Equity Failures) in the US equity markets in the four most volatile months during 2006-2011. In contrast to previous studies, we find that Mini Flash Crashes are the result of regulation framework and market fragmentation, in particular due to the aggressive use of Intermarke…
We develop a new active learning algorithm for the streaming setting satisfying three important properties: 1) It provably works for any classifier representation and classification problem including those with severe noise. 2) It is efficiently implementable with an ERM oracle. 3) It is more aggressive than all previo…
This paper describes an empirical study of shortfall optimization with Barra Extreme Risk. We compare minimum shortfall to minimum variance portfolios in the US, UK, and Japanese equity markets using Barra Style Factors (Value, Growth, Momentum, etc.). We show that minimizing shortfall generally improves performance ov…
We propose a new Bayesian model for flexible nonlinear regression and classification using tree ensembles. The model is based on the RuleFit approach in Friedman and Popescu (2008) where rules from decision trees and linear terms are used in a L1-regularized regression. We modify RuleFit by replacing the L1-regularizat…
New algorithm improves active learning in agnostic pool-based classification.
Characterizing a patient's progression through stages of sepsis is critical for enabling risk stratification and adaptive, personalized treatment. However, commonly used sepsis diagnostic criteria fail to account for significant underlying heterogeneity, both between patients as well as over time in a single patient. W…
A new method quantifies a specific class without labeled data.
A new scoring function improves ordinal regression by combining binary predictions.
Kelly betting is a prescription for optimal resource allocation among a set of gambles which are typically repeated in an independent and identically distributed manner. In this setting, there is a large body of literature which includes arguments that the theory often leads to bets which are "too aggressive" with resp…
We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market with trader identifiers at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and…
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice of over-optimism or over…
Improved Thompson Sampling reduces regret in contextual bandits and reinforcement learning.