A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Productivity and credit limits affect aggregate production in non-monotonic ways.
We study productivity dispersions across workers, firms and industrial sectors. Empirical study of the Japanese data shows that they all obey the Pareto law, and also that the Pareto index decreases with the level of aggregation. In order to explain these two stylized facts, we propose a theoretical framework built upo…
Paper proposes a method to aggregate customer engagement data for better ranking of e-commerce results.
We review the production function and the hypothesis of equilibrium in the neoclassical framework. We notify that in a soup of sectors in economy, while capital and labor resemble extensive variables, wage and rate of return on capital act as intensive variables. As a result, Baumol and Bowen's statement of equal wages…
The hierarchical structure of production planning has the advantage of assigning different decision variables to their respective time horizons and therefore ensures their manageability. However, the restrictive structure of this top-down approach implying that upper level decisions are the constraints for lower level …
Sharp bounds found on expert error in binary advice aggregation.
Production forecasting is a key step to design the future development of a reservoir. A classical way to generate such forecasts consists in simulating future production for numerical models representative of the reservoir. However, identifying such models can be very challenging as they need to be constrained to all a…
No fair and strategy-proof automated market maker exists for more than two assets.
We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking advantage of the information revealed by disaggregated data, we identify the fi…
We discuss superstatistics theory of labour productivity. Productivity distribution across workers, firms and industrial sectors are studied empirically and found to obey power-distributions, in sharp contrast to the equilibrium theories of mainstream economics. The Pareto index is found to decrease with the level of a…
This work studies a unified approach to ensemble aggregation using likelihood perspective.
This work improves multi-modal generative models by using permutation-invariant neural networks.
New method for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting at household level.
Model predicts stationary equilibrium in investment decisions of firms in fluctuating markets.
This paper examines pricing and hedging strategies for cross-currency equity protection swaps.
Recently, new defense techniques have been developed to tolerate Byzantine failures for distributed machine learning. The Byzantine model captures workers that behave arbitrarily, including malicious and compromised workers. In this paper, we break two prevailing Byzantine-tolerant techniques. Specifically we show robu…
LPF provides formal guarantees for aggregating multi-evidence in probabilistic tasks.
We propose a stylized model of production and exchange in which long-term investors set their production decision over a horizon τ , the "time to produce", and are liquidity constrained, while financial investors trade over a much shorter horizon δ (<< τ ) and are therefore more duly informed on the exogenous shocks af…
Time series data in the retail world are particularly rich in terms of dimensionality, and these dimensions can be aggregated in groups or hierarchies. Valuable information is nested in these complex structures, which helps to predict the aggregated time series data. From a portfolio of brands under HUUB's monitoring, …
Buyer--seller relationships among firms can be regarded as a longitudinal network in which the connectivity pattern evolves as each firm receives productivity shocks. Based on a data set describing the evolution of buyer--seller links among 55,608 firms over a decade and structural equation modeling, we find some evide…
HierarchicalForecast provides a Python framework for coherent hierarchical forecasting.
Recent advancements in deep neural networks for graph-structured data have led to state-of-the-art performance on recommender system benchmarks. In this work, we present a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) algorithm SWAG (Sample Weight and AGgregate), which combines efficient random walks and graph convolutions on weig…
This work proves MultiKrum is robust in mean estimation with adversaries.
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or 'capabilities'. Researchers propo…
Study shows safely discarding features based on aggregate SHAP values is sound.
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
New method maps global value chains at product level from trade data.
GRAIN: Group Aggregation via Min-Norm Objective
Federated Learning speeds up speech recognition training by 7x and reduces error rate by 6%.
Enhances neural forecasting for hierarchically organized time series data.
New method improves CATE model selection with optimal regret rates.
Tourism is one of the most important economic activities in the world: for many countries it represents the single largest product in their export basket. However, it is a product difficult to chart: "exporters" of tourism do not ship it abroad, but they welcome importers inside the country. Current research uses socia…
tempdisagg transforms low-frequency data into high-frequency estimates.
Modeling tech transfer to explain convergence in Central and Eastern Europe.
The energy transition is well underway in most European countries. It has a growing impact on electric power systems as it dramatically modifies the way electricity is produced. To ensure a safe and smooth transition towards a pan-European electricity production dominated by renewable sources, it is of paramount import…
In e-commerce, content quality of the product catalog plays a key role in delivering a satisfactory experience to the customers. In particular, visual content such as product images influences customers' engagement and purchase decisions. With the rapid growth of e-commerce and the advent of artificial intelligence, tr…
This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high rel…
Recommending the right products is the central problem in recommender systems, but the right products should also be recommended at the right time to meet the demands of users, so as to maximize their values. Users' demands, implying strong purchase intents, can be the most useful way to promote products sales if well …
A new method for sparse Gaussian process regression using correlated experts.
This study examine the difference in the size of avalanches among industries triggered by demand shocks, which can be rephrased by control of the economy or fiscal policy, and by using the production-inventory model and observed data. We obtain the following results. (1) The size of avalanches follows power law. (2) Th…
Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they export.We characterize this network using four structural features: the negative r…
Proposes a model to estimate effects of multiple related treatments.
Derives equations for capital deepening in a competitive economy without assuming a production function.
SYNC generates synthetic data from aggregated sources using Gaussian copulas.
Proposes a new optimization-based method for aggregating sets in neural networks.
The paper proposes a new model to better estimate demand from censored data.
The paper optimizes exceptions in a statistical production system using machine learning.
Turbo-Aggregate reduces secure aggregation time from quadratic to nearly linear.