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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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71143214285 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Adaptive multilevel splitting

Adaptive Multilevel Splitting improves rare event pricing for financial derivatives.

problem Efficient pricing of binary options in rare event regimes with discontinuous payoffs.
method Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (AMS) reformulates rare-event problem as conditional events.
result AMS achieves up to 200-fold improvements over standard Monte Carlo, preserving unbiasedness.

Improved multilevel scheme for value-at-risk computation.

problem Discontinuity in Heaviside function affects value-at-risk computation.
method Adaptive multilevel stochastic approximation to mitigate discontinuity.
result Best complexity improved to O(ε2lnε52\varepsilon^{-2}|\ln{\varepsilon}|^\frac52).

We study the use of the multilevel Monte Carlo technique in the context of the calculation of Greeks. The pathwise sensitivity analysis differentiates the path evolution and reduces the payoff's smoothness. This leads to new challenges: the inapplicability of pathwise sensitivities to non-Lipschitz payoffs often makes …

2011-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop a multilevel approach to compute approximate solutions to backward differential equations (BSDEs). The fully implementable algorithm of our multilevel scheme constructs sequential martingale control variates along a sequence of refining time-grids to reduce statistical approximation errors in an adaptive and…

2014-12-09abs ↗pdf ↗

We investigate the extension of the multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method to jump-diffusion SDEs. We consider models with finite rate activity, using a jump-adapted discretisation in which the jump times are computed and added to the standard uniform dis- cretisation times. The key component in multilevel analy…

2011-06-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo improves probability estimation for complex random variables.

problem Estimating probabilities of complex random variables with multiple approximations.
method Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo framework for discontinuous functionals.
result Achieves optimal computational complexities for both smooth and discontinuous functionals.

Review of MLMC in financial engineering, focusing on option pricing and risk management.

problem Efficient estimation of financial risks and option prices using Monte Carlo methods.
method Incorporation of importance sampling and adaptive sampling algorithms in MLMC framework.
result Hybrid algorithms reduce overall variance in estimating financial risks and option prices.

A new training method uses multilevel minimization for machine learning.

problem Training machine learning models with high variance and low efficiency.
method Constructs a multilevel hierarchy by reducing sample size and internally trains surrogate models with fewer samples.
result The multilevel method enhances model training efficiency compared to subsampled Newton's and variance reduction methods.

Automates kernel discovery for longitudinal data analysis.

problem Handling irregularly sampled, sparse longitudinal data with multilevel correlation.
method Combines deep neural networks and non-parametric kernel methods to discover complex multilevel correlation structure.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on benchmark data sets.

We investigate the problem of computing a nested expectation of the form P[E[XY] ⁣ ⁣0] ⁣= ⁣E[H(E[XY])]\mathbb{P}[\mathbb{E}[X|Y] \!\geq\!0]\!=\!\mathbb{E}[\textrm{H}(\mathbb{E}[X|Y])] where H\textrm{H} is the Heaviside function. This nested expectation appears, for example, when estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfo…

2018-02-14abs ↗pdf ↗

In the past decade, Bitcoin as an emerging asset class has gained widespread public attention because of their extraordinary returns in phases of extreme price growth and their unpredictable massive crashes. We apply the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator as a diagnostic tool for identifyin…

2019-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Since Giles introduced the multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method [18], there has been rapid development of the technique for a variety of applications in computational finance. This paper surveys the progress so far, highlights the key features in achieving a high rate of multilevel variance convergence, and su…

2012-12-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Accelerates MCMC sampling for large-scale problems using machine learning.

problem Efficiently sampling large-scale Bayesian inference problems with high computational cost.
method Integrates low-fidelity machine learning models into a multilevel MCMC framework.
result Significantly accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two with similar accuracy.

Simulation study evaluates tree-based imputation methods for multi-level data.

problem Ignoring dependencies in hierarchical data can compromise imputation accuracy.
method Chained Random Forests and Extreme Gradient Boosting (mixgb) adapted for multi-level data.
result Adapted boosting methods outperform traditional MICE for Level-1 variables at higher missingness rates.

We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in optimization. In addition, our framework provides a new optimization algorithm …

2019-02-01abs ↗pdf ↗

A method learns to solve multilevel combinatorial problems with two players.

problem Multilevel combinatorial optimization problems with multiple players.
method Value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning in a graph neural network framework.
result Close to optimal solutions on graphs up to 100 nodes, with a significant speedup.

Improved Bayesian regression for large datasets using multilevel Gibbs sampling.

problem Efficiently handling large-scale Bayesian regression with complex posterior distributions.
method Developed a multilevel Gibbs sampler for linear mixed models, incorporating data clustering and correlated samples for variance reduction.
result Significant speed-up achieved for Bayesian regression without sacrificing predictive performance.

Unbiased method for Bayesian posterior means using kinetic Langevin dynamics.

problem Estimating Bayesian posterior means efficiently and accurately.
method Combines advanced splitting methods with enhanced gradient approximations in a multilevel Monte Carlo approach.
result The method achieves unbiased estimates with finite variance and central limit theorem properties.

Efficiently price VIX options using multilevel Monte Carlo in rough Bergomi model.

problem Pricing VIX options in a rough Bergomi model with high computational complexity.
method Combining rectangle discretization, Cholesky sampling, and multilevel Monte Carlo.
result Reduced computational complexity to O(ε2log2(ε))\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2} \log^2(\varepsilon)) and asymptotically optimal O(ε2)\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2}).

SBAMDT uses adaptive soft splits to model complex decision boundaries.

problem Limited ability of standard decision trees to capture complex decision boundaries.
method Probabilistic additive decision tree model with adaptive soft multivariate splits.
result Demonstrated improved predictive performance on synthetic and real datasets.

Monte Carlo is a simple and flexible tool that is widely used in computational finance. In this context, it is common for the quantity of interest to be the expected value of a random variable defined via a stochastic differential equation. In 2008, Giles proposed a remarkable improvement to the approach of discretizin…

2015-05-05abs ↗pdf ↗

We apply multilevel Monte Carlo for option pricing problems using exponential Lévy models with a uniform timestep discretisation to monitor the running maximum required for lookback and barrier options. The numerical results demonstrate the computational efficiency of this approach. We derive estimates of the convergen…

2014-03-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Model trains passing events on a bridge using multilevel Gaussian process.

problem Represent aggregate train-passing events from a bridge monitoring system.
method Formulate a combined model with low-rank approximation hierarchical Gaussian process, incorporating domain expertise as constraints.
result Allow for simulation of previously unobserved train types.

A new adaptive splitting method improves accuracy for Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model.

problem Improving numerical solution accuracy for Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model.
method Adaptive splitting method over deterministic and random meshes, with uniform moment bound and strong error results.
result Uniform moment bound and strong error results of order 1/4 in L1 and L2 for κθ>σ^2, and order 1 for large noise.

Improves decision tree performance by correcting split selection errors.

problem Invalid statistical guarantees in split selection for decision trees.
method Introduces anytime-valid inference to provide valid statistical guarantees.
result Provides anytime-valid control of false splits under arbitrary data streams.

In medical domain, data features often contain missing values. This can create serious bias in the predictive modeling. Typical standard data mining methods often produce poor performance measures. In this paper, we propose a new method to simultaneously classify large datasets and reduce the effects of missing values.…

2015-03-21abs ↗pdf ↗