L-ARC improves model fairness by localizing risk guarantees.
problem Improving model fairness in tasks like image segmentation and wireless networks.
method Localized Adaptive Risk Control (L-ARC) updates a threshold function in RKHS to target localized statistical risk guarantees.
result L-ARC produces prediction sets with improved fairness across different data subpopulations.
Optimizes investment model using LSTM for better risk control.
problem Enhancing risk control in multi-factor investment models.
method Combines LSTM with multi-factor investment model for factor selection and weight determination.
result LSTM model outperforms benchmark in risk control metrics.
Combines RL and BF for risk-managed portfolio optimization.
problem Risk management in RL-based portfolio optimization under high volatility.
method Integrates reinforcement learning with barrier functions for dynamic risk control.
result Demonstrates superior performance in real-world data compared to RL-only approaches.
Risk control improves EENNs to make faster predictions without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Determining safe times for EENNs to exit early without degrading performance.
method Adapting risk control frameworks to EENNs to tune their exiting mechanism.
result Risk control enables EENNs to make faster predictions while maintaining user-specified performance goals.
Extends risk control to adaptive data collection, anytime-valid guarantees.
problem Ensuring safety of machine learning models with critical risk measures.
method Sequential risk controlling prediction sets (RCPS) for adaptive data collection and active labeling.
result Anytime-valid guarantees for risk control in sequential data collection.
Develops PromptShift-CRC for drift-aware conformal risk control in foundation models under prompt and domain shift.
problem Fixed calibration risk in foundation models due to prompt and domain shift.
method Embeds prompts and responses, measures drift, gives more weight to recent examples, and updates risk online.
result Develops method to control risk up to terms for distribution mismatch and weighted quantile uncertainty.
MILLION framework optimizes portfolio risk and return efficiently.
problem Optimizing risk and return in AI for FinTech portfolio management.
method Two phases: return maximization with auxiliary objectives and risk control with portfolio interpolation and improvement.
result Framework achieves fine-grained risk control and improved return rates.
Despite decades of research and recent progress in adaptive control and reinforcement learning, there remains a fundamental lack of understanding in designing controllers that provide robustness to inherent non-asymptotic uncertainties arising from models estimated with finite, noisy data. We propose a robust adaptive …
In this paper long-run risk sensitive optimisation problem is studied with dyadic impulse control applied to continuous-time Feller-Markov process. In contrast to the existing literature, focus is put on unbounded and non-uniformly ergodic case by adapting the weight norm approach. In particular, it is shown how to com…
This research improves DeFi interest rates using a PID control system.
problem Lack of adaptive interest rates in DeFi money markets.
method Introduces a time-weighted PID control system for interest rate management.
result Adaptive interest rates improve risk mitigation and market utilization.
New AI governance framework tackles risks in finance.
problem Risks from evolving AI models in finance.
method Agent-based framework with modular governance architecture.
result Controls quarantine harmful behavior in real time.
Unified framework combines views and optimization for better portfolio management.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights with dynamic adjustment based on volatility.
method Dynamic sliding window adjusting horizon, factor estimates, BL posterior returns, and weights over time.
result Outperforms dynamic mean-variance optimization without BL views, providing stronger downside risk control.
QTMRL uses RL with multi-indicators to improve trading adaptability.
problem Traditional trading models fail in volatile markets due to rigid assumptions.
method Combines multi-indicators with RL for adaptive portfolio management.
result QTMRL outperforms baselines in profitability and risk control.
Climate-contingent finance helps adapt to uncertain climate risks.
problem Uncertainty in future climate scenarios makes proactive adaptation less feasible.
method Underwrite climate adaptation projects with repayment based on future climate scenarios.
result Optimal financing reduces over- and under-preparation risks.
Adaptive model learns from time series data with changing distributions.
problem Predicting time series data under distribution shift.
method Formulates distribution shift as weighted empirical risk minimization. Uses a gradient-based learning method for a forgetting mechanism.
result Proposes an efficient method for adaptive time series prediction.
Paper tackles non-Markovian control problems with new learning methods.
problem Non-Markovian stochastic control problems with unknown parameters.
method Off-model training and importance sampling for deep neural network approximation.
result Quantitative error bounds for adaptive learning under model uncertainty.
Data-driven method for error estimation without needing class complexity.
problem Constructing confidence intervals for a class of estimates.
method Data-driven approach to derive high-probability upper bounds on maximum error.
result Method naturally adapts to unknown correlation structures and works for finite and infinite classes.
We present an adaptive approach for valuing the European call option on assets with stochastic volatility. The essential feature of the method is a reduction of uncertainty in latent volatility due to a Bayesian learning procedure. Starting from a discrete-time stochastic volatility model, we derive a recurrence equati…
Deployment of emerging technologies and rapid change in industries has created a lot of risk for initiating the new projects. Many techniques and suggestions have been introduced but still lack the gap from various prospective. This paper proposes a reliable project scheduling approach. The objectives of project schedu…
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
problem Mitigating risk in sports betting investments.
method Modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion, with modifications for practical risk control.
result Adaptive fractional Kelly method is suitable across various sports settings.
New method for estimating and optimizing MDPs without stationarity.
problem Challenges in offline contextual MDP estimation without stationarity.
method Introduces a new adaptive estimation and cost optimization approach for contextual MDPs.
result First robust, theoretically backed method for offline contextual MDP estimation.
We provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different, but related, target distribution. Firstly, we propose an improvement of the previous approach we proposed in Germain et al. (2013), …
The issue of constructing a risk minimizing hedge under an additional almost-surely type constraint on the shortfall profile is examined. Several classical risk minimizing problems are adapted to the new setting and solved. In particular, the bankruptcy threat of optimal strategies appearing in the classical risk minim…
New risk control method for non-monotonic losses in complex parameters.
problem Controlling risk for non-monotonic losses with multidimensional parameters.
method Stability-based guarantees for generic algorithms applied to non-monotonic losses.
result Guarantees depend on algorithm stability, with looser guarantees for unstable algorithms.
Deep RL improves blood glucose control for T1D patients.
problem Managing blood glucose levels for people with type 1 diabetes.
method Developed deep reinforcement learning techniques for automated blood glucose control.
result Deep RL approach outperforms baseline control algorithms, reducing glycemic risk and hypoglycemia.
Develops methods to control risk in ordinal classification tasks.
problem Controlling risk in ordinal classification tasks.
method Formulated ordinal classification in conformal risk control framework, proposed loss functions and algorithms.
result Demonstrated effectiveness and analyzed differences in risk control methods.
Paper introduces RCaI, a risk-sensitive control method using Rényi divergence.
problem Risk-sensitive control in reinforcement learning.
method RCaI extends CaI using Rényi divergence variational inference.
result Risk-sensitive optimal policy can be obtained by solving a soft Bellman equation.
Extends conformal prediction for controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
problem Controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
method Generalizes split conformal prediction with coverage guarantee, extending to distribution shift, quantile risk, multiple, adversarial, and expectations of U-statistics.
result Tight up to an O(1/n) factor, with worked examples in computer vision and natural language processing. RL-CVaR model improves insurance reserving under economic stress.
problem Managing insurance reserve setting under claim development uncertainty and macroeconomic stress.
method Reinforcement Learning (PPO) with CVaR constraints, trained under regime-aware curriculum.
result RL-CVaR policy reduces solvency violations and tail-risk compared to classical methods.
PPAT uses predictions to improve risk estimation in active testing.
problem Exploiting informative predictions from black-box models for efficient risk estimation.
method Combines LURE estimator with prediction-powered control variate.
result PPAT outperforms existing methods in risk estimation and uncertainty quantification.
MVPI framework optimizes risk in reinforcement learning, improving performance in robot simulations.
problem Optimizing risk in reinforcement learning control problems.
method Mean-Variance Policy Iteration (MVPI) framework for risk-averse control in MDPs.
result Risk-averse TD3 outperforms previous methods in robot simulation tasks.
Paper uses DRL to optimize portfolios, balancing risk and return.
problem Optimizing portfolios under market uncertainty and risk constraints.
method Integrates Sharpe ratio-based reward with risk control mechanisms, uses PPO for adaptive asset allocation.
result DRL agent stabilizes volatility but sacrifices risk-adjusted returns.
Adaptive financial dataflow system improves model robustness in dynamic markets.
problem Static historical data leads to poor performance in dynamic financial markets.
method Drift-aware dataflow system with adaptive control and optimization.
result Enhanced model robustness and improved risk-adjusted returns.
CRC method provides tighter uncertainty intervals for CT images.
problem Expressing uncertainty in CT images in clinically meaningful terms.
method Semantically adaptive CRC procedure leveraging length minimization.
result Valid coverage of ground-truth images with tighter uncertainty intervals.
Computing risk measures of a financial portfolio comprising thousands of derivatives is a challenging problem because (a) it involves a nested expectation requiring multiple evaluations of the loss of the financial portfolio for different risk scenarios and (b) evaluating the loss of the portfolio is expensive and the …
Two-stage risk control for ranked retrieval systems.
problem Assessing prediction uncertainty and risk control in sequential machine learning systems.
method Developed two-stage risk control methods based on LTT and CRC frameworks, leveraging sequential nature of retrieval and ranking phases.
result The proposed methods provide theoretical guarantees and reduce computational burden compared to prior work.
Method improves volatility targeting for index construction.
problem High turnover, leverage spikes, and sensitivity to estimation error in existing volatility-targeting strategies.
method Proportional-control approach for setting index weights that corrects tracking error through feedback.
result The proportional-control approach achieves the target volatility more effectively than open-loop alternatives.
New framework calibrates models to control risk under performativity.
problem Calibrating models to ensure reliable decision-making under performativity.
method Iteratively refined calibration process for different risk measures and tail bounds.
result Statistically rigorous risk control under performativity demonstrated.
Adaptive sequential testing optimizes epidemic control by learning optimal test strategies.
problem Optimizing test allocation in epidemics with network and temporal dependence.
method Adaptive sequential design with Online Super Learner for optimal test strategies.
result Superior performance in simulated university COVID-19 pandemic.
Entropy minimization has been widely used in unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). However, existing works reveal that entropy minimization only may result into collapsed trivial solutions. In this paper, we propose to avoid trivial solutions by further introducing diversity maximization. In order to achieve the possib…
Framework for controlling multiple risks in AI models.
problem Enforcing multiple risk constraints in generative AI models.
method Formalizes problem, introduces two dynamic programming algorithms.
result Achieves nearly tight control of all constraint risks under mild assumptions.
Adapts safe policies for exploration in high-risk settings.
problem Balancing safety and exploration in high-risk environments.
method Uses conformal calibration on a safe reference policy to determine aggressive action limits.
result Safe exploration improves performance without requiring model class identification or hyperparameter tuning.
Develops a control framework for systemic risk under uncertainty.
problem Systemic risk under model uncertainty.
method Linear-quadratic mean-field control framework with viscosity solutions and verification theorems.
result Explicit feedback controls derived from a coupled Riccati system, preserving analytical tractability.
CSA fills a gap in RLVR-trained LLM deployment by providing anytime-valid selective risk control.
problem Deployment of RLVR-trained LLMs in regulated organizations requires a safety certificate for every round without waiting for long-run averages.
method CSA uses a (test statistic, validity guarantee, deployment rule) framework to fill the gap, maintaining a Ville-type e-process per threshold on a Bonferroni grid.
result CSA provides the first anytime-valid selective risk control for RLVR-trained LLMs, matching the long-run average certification rate and satisfying pathwise validity and non-refusing deployment on every cell.
Paper proposes a new method to optimize robot body structure and control policy.
problem Optimizing robot body structure and control policy in a coupled manner.
method Revisits co-design problem as a Stackelberg game, incorporating control adaptation dynamics.
result Stackelberg PPO outperforms standard PPO in stability and performance.
Investigates how options can control systemic risk in portfolios.
problem Systemic risk in optioned portfolios.
method Correlation hedging, extreme loss hedging, and SOCP formulation.
result Options can make systemic risk controllable and enhance return-risk performance.
This paper improves risk control for financial markets by calibrating VaR forecasts using conformal methods.
problem Nonstationary and regime-dependent losses in financial markets.
method Regime-weighted conformal risk control (RWC) for VaR forecasting.
result RWC improves regime-conditional stability in some settings with modest conservativeness changes.
Unified theory for optimal execution through signal-adaptive quotes in limit order books.
problem Optimal execution in limit order books with signal-dependent factors.
method Develops a unified solution theory for four execution criteria, incorporating signal-dependent drift, price impact, inventory risk, and execution risk.
result Explicit formulas reveal optimal quoting strategies and show signal-dependent drift can significantly affect execution.