Study examines how imputation accuracy affects prediction accuracy in regression problems with missing covariates.
problem Missing covariates in regression or classification problems.
method Simulation and empirical analysis using UCI datasets and statistical inference.
result Imputation accuracy impacts prediction accuracy, especially with Machine Learning methods.
TIP-Search optimizes market prediction accuracy and timeliness under uncertain load.
problem Real-time market prediction requires accurate predictions before a deadline.
method Filters feasible models, dispatches workers, trades accuracy for deadline risk.
result Optimized pool achieves 0.991 timely accuracy and 0.994 raw accuracy.
Project fair estimators while maintaining accuracy.
problem Making estimators fair without sacrificing accuracy.
method Optimal transport tools to find closest fair estimator.
result Efficiently constructs fair estimators with quantified cost.
K-means algorithm improves financial market risk prediction accuracy.
problem High error rate and low precision in financial market risk prediction.
method Applied K-means algorithm in machine learning to financial market risk forecasting.
result Achieved a 94.61% accuracy rate in financial market risk prediction.
We propose a novel adaptive approximation approach for test-time resource-constrained prediction. Given an input instance at test-time, a gating function identifies a prediction model for the input among a collection of models. Our objective is to minimize overall average cost without sacrificing accuracy. We learn gat…
We present a dynamic model selection approach for resource-constrained prediction. Given an input instance at test-time, a gating function identifies a prediction model for the input among a collection of models. Our objective is to minimize overall average cost without sacrificing accuracy. We learn gating and predict…
Cancer analysis and prediction is the utmost important research field for well-being of humankind. The Cancer data are analyzed and predicted using machine learning algorithms. Most of the researcher claims the accuracy of the predicted results within 99%. However, we show that machine learning algorithms can easily pr…
Bayesian inference improves neural network predictions by separating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of neural networks by quantifying and separating uncertainties.
method Approximated posterior distributions using deep ensembles for various neural network architectures.
result Prediction accuracy depends on both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, not just marginalized uncertainty.
The paper studies and mitigates accuracy disparity in regression models.
problem Accuracy disparity between different demographic subgroups in high-stakes domains.
method Error decomposition theorem and distribution alignment algorithm.
result The proposed algorithm effectively mitigates accuracy disparity while maintaining predictive power.
Paper analyzes trade-offs in top-k classification accuracies and proposes a new loss function.
problem CE loss does not always optimize top-k prediction, especially with complex data.
method Introduces a novel top-k transition loss to improve top-k accuracy.
result Our loss function improves top-k accuracy, especially for k > 10.
TRUST improves tree models' accuracy while maintaining interpretability.
problem Piecewise-constant regression trees lack in predictive accuracy compared to black-box models.
method Combines Random Forest accuracy with interpretability of shallow trees and sparsity of linear models, using LLMs for explanations.
result TRUST outperforms other interpretable models in predictive accuracy and matches Random Forest's accuracy.
Cash management is concerned with optimizing the short-term funding requirements of a company. To this end, different optimization strategies have been proposed to minimize costs using daily cash flow forecasts as the main input to the models. However, the effect of the accuracy of such forecasts on cash management pol…
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
The paper evaluates forecast accuracy of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections.
problem Forecast evaluation of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections of financial data.
method Equal predictive accuracy testing procedures, LASSO shrinkage, measurement error correction, cross-sectional jump component measures.
result The augmented HAR model outperforms the standard HAR model in forecasting realized volatility.
VC-PCR improves prediction by clustering correlated variables.
problem Decreased prediction accuracy due to cluster structure in predictor variables.
method Supervised variable selection and clustering to integrate cluster information into a sparse modeling process.
result VC-PCR achieves better prediction, variable selection, and clustering performance.
In this paper, prediction for linear systems with missing information is investigated. New methods are introduced to improve the Mean Squared Error (MSE) on the test set in comparison to state-of-the-art methods, through appropriate tuning of Bias-Variance trade-off. First, the use of proposed Soft Weighted Prediction …
Enhances image quality to improve test-time adaptation accuracy.
problem Reducing accuracy loss due to distribution shift in deep networks.
method Integrates image enhancement with TTA methods to reduce prediction uncertainty.
result TECA method increases accuracy of TTA methods without hyperparameters.
The hedonic approach based on a regression model has been widely adopted for the prediction of real estate property price and rent. In particular, a spatial regression technique called Kriging, a method of interpolation that was advanced in the field of spatial statistics, are known to enable high accuracy prediction i…
We present and test a sequential learning algorithm for the short-term prediction of human mobility. This novel approach pairs the Exponential Weights forecaster with a very large ensemble of experts. The experts are individual sequence prediction algorithms constructed from the mobility traces of 10 million roaming mo…
In this paper we present a comprehensive view of prominent causal discovery algorithms, categorized into two main categories (1) assuming acyclic and no latent variables, and (2) allowing both cycles and latent variables, along with experimental results comparing them from three perspectives: (a) structural accuracy, (…
CONFINE enhances neural networks' interpretability without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep neural networks, especially in healthcare.
method CONFINE uses conformal prediction to generate prediction sets with robust uncertainty estimates.
result CONFINE achieves correct efficiency up to 3.3% higher than original accuracy.
We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between predictive uncertainty of networks and variance of the prediction scores obtained by …
Deep learning improves trip prediction accuracy in transportation planning.
problem Traditional models fail to accurately predict person and vehicle trips due to complexity and dynamics.
method Developed and trained a deep learning model using NHTS data.
result Deep learning model achieved 98% accuracy for person trip prediction and 96% for vehicle trip estimation.
New method predicts political ideology from online activity.
problem Predicting political ideology from digital footprints.
method Statistical learning approaches applied to reddit data.
result Activity in non-political forums can predict political ideology with high accuracy.
We present an interpretable companion model for any pre-trained black-box classifiers. The idea is that for any input, a user can decide to either receive a prediction from the black-box model, with high accuracy but no explanations, or employ a companion rule to obtain an interpretable prediction with slightly lower a…
Study finds visual explanations do not significantly improve human accuracy or trust in model predictions.
problem Measuring the impact of visual explanations on human accuracy and trust in model predictions.
method Randomized controlled trial with image-based age prediction task, varying levels of explanation quality.
result Visual explanations do not significantly alter human accuracy or trust in the model.
This study compares two methods for uncertainty estimation in CNNs, finding Conformal Prediction more reliable.
problem CNNs often overestimate uncertainty, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Bayesian approximation via Monte Carlo Dropout and Conformal Prediction.
result Conformal Prediction produces more reliable uncertainty estimates than Monte Carlo Dropout.
Empirical law predicts accuracy of Google Translate's translation chains.
problem Predicting accuracy in machine translation with multiple hops.
method Empirical testing of Google Translate's sequential translation.
result Accuracy decreases with the number of translating hops, following a power law.
A deep learning model predicts future cache accesses with high accuracy.
problem Improving cache management and performance through better prediction of future data accesses.
method Proposed a LSTM-based recurrent neural network model to predict future cache accesses using only a cache trace as input.
result The proposed model achieves high prediction accuracy and outperforms state-of-the-art practical policies.
Harmonization schemes limit accuracy due to domain information.
problem Harmonization schemes lead to inaccurate predictions due to domain information.
method Analysis of mutual information and real label value informativeness.
result Accuracy is limited by the domain with least information.
The paper sets limits on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
problem Uncertainty in predicting macroeconomic variables like prices and returns.
method Defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on forecast accuracy based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
result Accuracy of forecasts of probabilities of macroeconomic variables doesn't exceed Gaussian approximations.
A new Twitter sentiment model predicts stock market trends with high accuracy.
problem Real-time prediction of future stock market prices.
method Baseline correlation approach using polynomial regression, classification, and lexicon-based sentiment analysis.
result Predicts stock market trends with 67.22% accuracy, up to 15 time samples in advance.
Proposes a model combining difference-attention and error-correction LSTMs for improved time series prediction.
problem Improving accuracy in time series prediction.
method Combines difference-attention LSTM and error-correction LSTM in a cascade approach.
result Improves prediction accuracy in time series.
Researchers study fairness-accuracy tradeoffs in predictive models for multiple groups.
problem Understanding the tradeoff between fairness and accuracy in models serving multiple demographic groups.
method Characterizing the fairness-accuracy (FA) Pareto frontier, approximating it from limited data, and bounding the worst-case gap.
result Derivation of worst-case-optimal estimators and uniform finite-sample bounds for the entire FA frontier.
ITCA optimizes label combination for ambiguous outcomes in multi-class classification.
problem Ambiguous outcome labels in real-world datasets hinder accurate multi-class classification.
method Information-theoretic classification accuracy (ITCA) and search strategies (greedy, breadth-first) guide label combination.
result ITCA improves prediction accuracy and identifies ambiguous labels across diverse applications.
We propose an experimental comparison between Deep Echo State Networks (DeepESNs) and gated Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) on multivariate time-series prediction tasks. In particular, we compare reservoir and fully-trained RNNs able to represent signals featured by multiple time-scales dynamics. The analysis is perfo…
Explainable AI improves human decision accuracy but does not enhance it significantly.
problem Improving human decision-making through explainable AI.
method Comparing human decision accuracy with and without AI predictions, including or excluding explanations.
result Providing AI predictions improves human decision accuracy, but explanations do not significantly enhance it.
A new method for faster prediction in distributed Gaussian processes.
problem Inefficient aggregation of distributed Gaussian processes with correlations.
method Proposes a novel approach for aggregated prediction in distributed GPs that incorporates correlations among experts.
result Results in more stable predictions in less time compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning models. However, few existing uncertainty models attempt to improve overall predi…
A new method clusters time series based on model prediction accuracy.
problem Clustering time series data effectively.
method Iterative model fitting and assignment based on predictive accuracy.
result The method outperforms other techniques in clustering and predictive accuracy.
This paper improves prediction rule ensembles using model-based data generation.
problem Improving the sparsity and predictive accuracy of prediction rule ensembles.
method The authors use surrogate models to train Lasso regression with data generated by a boosted decision tree ensemble, improving PRE performance.
result The use of surrogacy models can substantially improve the sparsity of PRE while retaining predictive accuracy.
Neural network accuracy improves with denser training samples.
problem Improving neural network accuracy on unseen test samples.
method Bounding empirical training error smoothed across activation regions and using it to discard high-risk test samples.
result Discarding high-risk test samples based on error bounds improves prediction accuracy by up to 20%.
New adaptive models improve prediction accuracy with missing data.
problem Improving prediction accuracy with missing data entries.
method Adaptive optimization approach, learning imputation and regression simultaneously.
result 2-10% improvement in out-of-sample accuracy in strongly non-random missing data settings.
Background: Predictive modeling is a key component of solutions to many healthcare problems. Among all predictive modeling approaches, machine learning methods often achieve the highest prediction accuracy, but suffer from a long-standing open problem precluding their widespread use in healthcare. Most machine learning…
Approximate computing is being considered as a promising design paradigm to overcome the energy and performance challenges in computationally demanding applications. If the case where the accuracy can be configured, the quality level versus energy efficiency or delay also may be traded-off. For this technique to be use…
Paper proposes a method to improve prediction intervals for neural networks.
problem Improving prediction intervals for neural network models.
method Adapting extremely randomized trees to neural networks to create ensembles.
result The method yields gains in out-of-sample accuracy and is superior to existing methods.
Predict accuracy of neural architectures using non-neural models.
problem Improving efficiency and effectiveness of neural architecture search.
method Used gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) for accuracy prediction and pruned the search space based on features learned from GBDT.
result GBDT-based predictor achieves comparable or better accuracy than neural network-based predictors and is 22x more sample efficient on NASBench-101.
Paper proposes a GAN-based method for better next event prediction in business processes.
problem Insufficient training data and sub-optimal network configuration limit deep learning approaches to next event prediction.
method Adversarial training framework using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for sequential temporal data.
result The proposed approach achieves at least as good accuracy as non-adversarial methods and outperforms them in accuracy and prediction earliness.