AI predicts stock winners with 2.43 Sharpe ratio, but returns are highly concentrated.
problem Predicting stock returns with AI, focusing on identifying top winners.
method Deployed a state-of-the-art LLM to autonomously search the web for stock attractiveness, avoiding look-ahead bias.
result AI can generate alpha by identifying top winners, but returns are highly concentrated.
Nowcasts consumption and investment from Turkish bank transactions for real-time GDP.
problem Lack of timely data for GDP nowcasting in Turkey.
method Used aggregated bank transactions to replicate quarterly national accounts data.
result Bank transaction data successfully nowcasts Turkish GDP, especially useful for countries with long data lags.
Bayesian econometrics improves nowcasting during pandemics.
problem Improving nowcasting during extreme economic events like pandemics.
method Bayesian econometric methods using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs with additive regression trees.
result Significant improvements in nowcasting performance compared to linear models.
This paper reviews radar-based nowcasting techniques for short-term weather predictions.
problem Short-term weather predictions for adverse events like heavy rain and flooding.
method Analysis of existing radar-based nowcasting techniques and machine learning approaches.
result New partnerships between environmental science and machine learning can improve nowcasting.
This paper benchmarks econometric and machine learning methods in nowcasting GDP growth.
problem Lack of comprehensive comparison of nowcasting methodologies.
method Examines 12 methodologies including traditional econometrics and machine learning.
result LSTM and BVAR are the top two performing methodologies.
Improved NiNo networks accelerate Adam training by up to 50%.
problem Accelerating neural network training with stable and efficient methods.
method Proposed NiNo networks that leverage neuron connectivity and graph neural networks to nowcast parameters periodically during Adam training.
result Accelerates Adam training by up to 50% in vision and language tasks.
High-resolution nowcasting is an essential tool needed for effective adaptation to climate change, particularly for extreme weather. As Deep Learning (DL) techniques have shown dramatic promise in many domains, including the geosciences, we present an application of DL to the problem of precipitation nowcasting, i.e., …
LSTMs outperform DFM in nowcasting COVID-19 economic variables.
problem Timely estimation of macroeconomic variables during the pandemic.
method Comparison of LSTM and DFM performance on three variables (export values, volumes, and services exports).
result LSTMs outperformed DFM in two-thirds of variable/quarter combinations.
Paper uses machine learning for nowcasting corporate earnings from mixed-frequency data.
problem Predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with different frequency data.
method Structured machine learning regressions with sparse-group LASSO regularization for panel data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional methods in nowcasting corporate earnings.
Paper introduces machine learning for time series data, improving nowcasting accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in nowcasting US GDP growth using machine learning.
method Sparse-group LASSO estimator for high-dimensional time series data, considering different sampling frequencies and financial/macroeconomic data tail properties.
result Sparse-group LASSO outperforms unstructured LASSO in nowcasting US GDP growth.
Paper uses machine learning in EM framework for better nowcasting.
problem Improving risk estimation with incomplete information.
method Expectation-maximisation framework with machine learning for occurrence and reporting modeling.
result XGBoost-based approach outperforms existing methods in nowcasting.
RainfallBench benchmarks GNSS-based precipitation nowcasting models, addressing complex meteorological challenges.
problem Evaluation of precipitation nowcasting models in meteorology is insufficient due to focus on periodic variables.
method RainfallBench dataset and specialized evaluation protocols for multi-scale, multi-resolution, and extreme rainfall events.
result Bi-Focus Precipitation Forecaster (BFPF) enhances rainfall time series forecasting by incorporating domain-specific priors.
Gaussian process improves nowcasting of COVID-19 deaths.
problem Correcting for delays in reporting daily deaths.
method Flexible Gaussian process model with latent variables.
result Gaussian process nowcasts outperform other methods.
A neural network method for financial data nowcasting.
problem Financial data nowcasting, especially with variable grid nodes.
method Neural network architecture for variable grid nodes data.
result Outperforms interpolation benchmarks and outlier detection.
Surveying machine learning methods for economic forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy of economic forecasts using machine learning.
method Nowcasting, textual data, panel and tensor data, high-dimensional Granger causality tests, time series cross-validation, classification with economic losses.
result Recent advances in machine learning methods enhance economic forecasting accuracy.
Effective training of Deep Neural Networks requires massive amounts of data and compute. As a result, longer times are needed to train complex models requiring large datasets, which can severely limit research on model development and the exploitation of all available data. In this paper, this problem is investigated i…
Bayesian machine learning methods improve nowcasting with mixed frequency data.
problem Handling frequency mismatches and predicting short-term economic indicators.
method Developed Gaussian process (GP) methods for MIDAS regressions.
result Gaussian process-MIDAS methods offer gains in predictive accuracy.
We introduce a novel application of Support Vector Machines (SVM), an important Machine Learning algorithm, to determine the beginning and end of recessions in real time. Nowcasting, "forecasting" a condition about the present time because the full information about it is not available until later, is key for recession…
Sparse point observations can provide useful local constraints, but their benefit for radar-like fields depends on the training loss, uncertainty representation, and how observation support is encoded in the model.
problem Improving dense radar-field forecasts with sparse point observations
method A multimodal graph neural network nowcasting system over the Nordic radar domain
result Each source improves a different part of the forecast problem
Research predicts healthcare index movements using historical OHLC data.
problem Predicting the directional movement of healthcare indices based on historical data.
method Supervised classification task with a one-step-ahead rolling window, using a diverse feature set including OHLC ratios.
result Robust predictive performance with accuracy exceeding 0.8 and Matthews correlation coefficients above 0.6, highlighting the importance of nowcasting features.
Payments data and machine learning improve nowcasting accuracy for macroeconomic indicators.
problem Lagged indicators in linear models are insufficient during crisis periods.
method Non-traditional payments data, nonlinear machine learning, and tailored cross-validation.
result Improved macroeconomic nowcasting accuracy up to 40% during crises.
New machine learning model identifies key drivers of market troughs.
problem Misrepresentation of market trough drivers by simpler models.
method Flexible DML average partial effect causal machine learning framework.
result Volatility of options-implied risk appetite and market liquidity are key drivers.
Paper uses Gaussian Processes to monitor air quality in Kampala.
problem Monitoring air pollution in cities with limited sensor coverage.
method Gaussian Processes for nowcasting and forecasting air pollution.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of Gaussian Processes in air quality monitoring.
Novel method for nowcasting implied volatility using neural operators.
problem Dynamic and spatially changing option prices in financial markets.
method Operator Deep Smoothing using graph neural operators.
result Highly accurate implied volatility smoothing on ten years of S&P 500 options data.
Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in ma…
Deep learning improves macroeconomic forecasting and risk assessment.
problem Improving accuracy in macroeconomic forecasting and sovereign risk assessment.
method Nowcasting and forecasting using deep learning techniques.
result Deep learning methods outperform traditional econometric techniques in out-of-sample performance.
HS-BQR extends horseshoe prior for Bayesian quantile regression.
problem Estimating quantiles in high-dimensional data with bias and error.
method Horseshoe prior for Bayesian quantile regression with a fast sampling algorithm.
result HS-BQR outperforms other shrinkage priors in coefficient bias and forecast error.
Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economica…
New model predicts particle precipitation from magnetosphere to ionosphere.
problem Improving prediction of electron particle precipitation from magnetosphere to ionosphere.
method Compilation of new database, use of machine learning (ML) tools, neural network (PrecipNet).
result PrecipNet achieves >50% reduction in errors and better captures dynamic changes.
LLM forecasting benchmarks suffer from information leakage, which confounds model performance.
problem LLM forecasting benchmarks suffer from information leakage.
method A retrieval-augmented LLM forecaster observes only decision-time information.
result The full pipeline obtains a median monthly Spearman rank IC of +0.154.
AI stocks hedge against AI singularity's economic impact.
problem AI singularity's displacement of consumption.
method Developed an asset pricing model with incomplete markets.
result AI stocks command a premium due to market incompleteness.
Study analyzes AI's impact on firms, markets, and workers using large language model data.
problem Understanding AI's effect on firms, markets, and workers.
method Used 380 trillion tokens from 400+ large language models to analyze AI's impact.
result Firms with higher AI exposure earn higher returns, creating an AI premium.
New AI stock indices classify firms' AI engagement using 10-K filings.
problem Opaque AI selection criteria in existing ETFs.
method NLP analysis of 10-K filings to classify AI stocks.
result Companies with higher AI engagement have greater positive returns.
The paper analyzes risk spillovers between AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets.
problem Risk spillovers among AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets.
method R2 decomposition method
result AI ETFs and clean energy act as risk transmitters, while AI tokens and green assets act as receivers.
This review covers AI in finance, challenges, techniques, and opportunities.
problem Challenges and opportunities in AI applications in finance.
method Comprehensive categorization and overview of AI research in finance over decades.
result A dense roadmap of AI challenges, techniques, and opportunities in finance.
Explainable AI improves human decision accuracy but does not enhance it significantly.
problem Improving human decision-making through explainable AI.
method Comparing human decision accuracy with and without AI predictions, including or excluding explanations.
result Providing AI predictions improves human decision accuracy, but explanations do not significantly enhance it.
The paper explores AI in finance, focusing on XAI's role in enhancing interpretability and trust.
problem The need for AI in finance and the importance of XAI for better decision-making.
method Tracing AI's evolution in finance, highlighting XAI's role, and demonstrating through simulations.
result XAI enhances trust in AI systems, leading to more responsible decision-making.
Paper defines AI-specific loss reconstruction problem and introduces CER framework.
problem Reconstructing AI-generated losses, especially in agentic systems.
method CER framework: C (control boundary), E (evidence reconstruction), R (insurance response).
result Defines AI-specific reconstruction problem and operationalizes it.
Experiment shows cognitive biases impact human-AI collaboration, highlighting the need for diverse evaluator samples.
problem Cognitive biases affect human-AI collaboration, leading to suboptimal outcomes.
method Randomized experiment with 2,784 participants, manipulating AI suggestion quality, task burden, and financial incentives.
result Individual attitudes toward AI are the strongest predictor of performance, influencing accuracy and overcorrection.
AI enhances financial forecasting with challenges in regulation and privacy.
problem Challenges in integrating AI with financial services and regulations.
method Integration of AI technologies like deep learning and reinforcement learning.
result AI improves financial forecasting but faces regulatory and privacy issues.
AI+MPS workshop aims to strengthen AI's role in science.
problem AI's potential to enhance scientific discovery and education.
method Proposes activities and strategic priorities to strengthen AI-MPS link.
result AI and science are becoming increasingly intertwined.
Improved AI patent classifier measures U.S. and China's AI patenting.
problem Measuring AI patents with high precision and generalization.
method Fine-tuning PatentSBERTa on manually labeled data from USPTO's AI Patent Dataset.
result Rapid growth in AI patenting in both countries, but different organizational patterns.
FST.ai 2.0 improves Taekwondo decision-making with AI, reducing review time and increasing trust.
problem Fair, transparent, and explainable decision-making in Taekwondo.
method Pose-based action recognition, epistemic uncertainty modeling, interactive dashboards.
result 85% reduction in decision review time, 93% referee trust in AI-assisted decisions.
Article evaluates AI security threats and proposes multiple measures.
problem Threats to AI integrity and security.
method Literature review, analysis of AI supply chain, discussion of mitigations.
result Multiple protective measures are necessary for AI security.
AI threatens financial stability through misuse and stealth adoption.
problem Misuse and stealth adoption of AI in financial regulations.
method Analysis of AI's potential risks and criteria for AI suitability.
result AI will likely become widely used by stealth, affecting high-level financial functions.
Adversarial policies beat superhuman Go AI systems.
problem Vulnerability of superhuman AI systems to adversarial attacks.
method Training adversarial policies to trick KataGo into making blunders.
result Adversarial policies achieve >97% win rate against KataGo at superhuman settings.
The DoD needs a robust process to evaluate AI/ML model performance and robustness.
problem AI/ML models are brittle and nonrobust, posing risks in national security.
method Reviews AI/ML development process and best practices for evaluation.
result Recommendations for DoD evaluators to ensure robust AI/ML capabilities.
Paper tackles AI risks by customizing metrics and models.
problem AI risks are multidimensional and immaturely managed.
method Decomposes AI risks into data protection, fairness, etc., and develops metrics and models.
result Customized metrics and models reduce AI risk uncertainty.