A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
ABC algorithms involve a large number of simulations from the model of interest, which can be very computationally costly. This paper summarises the lazy ABC algorithm of Prangle (2015), which reduces the computational demand by abandoning many unpromising simulations before completion. By using a random stopping decis…
The paper connects ABC to GBI, suggesting ABC as a robustification strategy.
Many models of interest in the natural and social sciences have no closed-form likelihood function, which means that they cannot be treated using the usual techniques of statistical inference. In the case where such models can be efficiently simulated, Bayesian inference is still possible thanks to the Approximate Baye…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC, high-dimensional data and costly simulations still remain a bottleneck in some a…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful and elegant framework for performing inference in simulation-based models. However, due to the difficulty in scaling likelihood estimates, ABC remains useful for relatively low-dimensional problems. We introduce Hamiltonian ABC (HABC), a set of likelihood-free algori…
Logitboost is an influential boosting algorithm for classification. In this paper, we develop robust logitboost to provide an explicit formulation of tree-split criterion for building weak learners (regression trees) for logitboost. This formulation leads to a numerically stable implementation of logitboost. We then pr…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) are likelihood-free Monte Carlo methods. ABC methods use a comparison between simulated data, using different parameters drew from a prior distribution, and observed data. This comparison process is based on computing a distance between the summary statistics from the simulated da…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel…
This document is an invited chapter covering the specificities of ABC model choice, intended for the incoming Handbook of ABC by Sisson, Fan, and Beaumont (2017). Beyond exposing the potential pitfalls of ABC based posterior probabilities, the review emphasizes mostly the solution proposed by Pudlo et al. (2016) on the…
A novel ABC method for high-dimensional inverse problems using generative modeling and subset simulation.
The paper studies the face angles of tetrahedra with a fixed base.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential part of the Bayesian toolbox for addressing problems in which the likelihood is prohibitively expensive or entirely unknown, making it intractable. ABC defines a pseudo-posterior by comparing observed data with simulated data, traditionally based on some su…
This Chapter, "High-dimensional ABC", is to appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). It details the main ideas and concepts behind extending ABC methods to higher dimensions, with supporting examples and illustrations.
The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is modelled with a GP which is further used to form a model-based estimator for the …
This paper introduces a simple, general framework for likelihood-free Bayesian reinforcement learning, through Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The main advantage is that we only require a prior distribution on a class of simulators (generative models). This is useful in domains where an analytical probabilistic…
Complicated generative models often result in a situation where computing the likelihood of observed data is intractable, while simulating from the conditional density given a parameter value is relatively easy. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a paradigm that enables simulation-based posterior inference in su…
New linking numbers link complex cycles to Calabi-Yau 3-folds.
This Chapter, "ABC Samplers", is to appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). It details the main ideas and algorithms used to sample from the ABC approximation to the posterior distribution, including methods based on rejection/importance sampling, MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo.
ABC method uses machine learning for likelihood-free inference.
Abc-boost is a new line of boosting algorithms for multi-class classification, by utilizing the commonly used sum-to-zero constraint. To implement abc-boost, a base class must be identified at each boosting step. Prior studies used a very expensive procedure based on exhaustive search for determining the base class at …
Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models analytically. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which allow Bayesian inf…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and synthetic likelihood (SL) techniques have enabled the use of Bayesian inference for models that may be simulated, but for which the likelihood cannot be evaluated pointwise at values of an unknown parameter . The main idea in ABC and SL is to, for different values of (u…
A new ABC method uses variational approximations for efficient inference.
Proposes robust ABC method for outlier detection.
New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions using simulation rather than likelihood calculations. We introduce Gaussian process (GP) accelerated ABC, which we show can significantly reduce the number of simulations required. As computational resource is usually the mai…
Active learning method for ABC statistics selection reduces expert work and improves posterior estimates.
A new method uses ABC-SMC to infer hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited data.
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches commonly used in ABC. However, SVI is highly sensitive to the variance of the gradient…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular method for approximate inference in generative models with intractable but easy-to-sample likelihood. It constructs an approximate posterior distribution by finding parameters for which the simulated data are close to the observations in terms of summary statistics. T…
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
An important problem for HCI researchers is to estimate the parameter values of a cognitive model from behavioral data. This is a difficult problem, because of the substantial complexity and variety in human behavioral strategies. We report an investigation into a new approach using approximate Bayesian computation (AB…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can be used for model fitting when the likelihood function is intractable but simulating from the model is feasible. However, even a single evaluation of a complex model may take several hours, limiting the number of model evaluations available. Modelling the discrepancy between t…
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility approaches. In …
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to sample from posterior distributions when the likelihood function is unavailable or intractable, as is often the case in biological systems. ABC methods suffer from inefficient particle proposals in high dimensions, and subjectivity in the choice of summary s…
Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging. The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework is the standard statistical…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to learn synthetic likelihoods on simulated data -- both local emulators which app…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is now an established technique for statistical inference used in cases where the likelihood function is computationally expensive or not available. It relies on the use of a~model that is specified in the form of a~simulator, and approximates the likelihood at a~parameter value $…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a method to obtain a posterior distribution without a likelihood function, using simulations and a set of distance metrics. For that reason, it has recently been gaining popularity as an analysis tool in cosmology and astrophysics. Its drawback, however, is a slow convergence r…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly. To reduce the computational cost, Bayesian optimisation (BO) and surrogate mode…
This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100036). Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology that manages Bayesian inference for models associated with intractable likelihood functions. Most ABC i…
ABC improves uncertainty quantification in LLMs for clinical diagnostics.
We propose the Autoencoding Binary Classifiers (ABC), a novel supervised anomaly detector based on the Autoencoder (AE). There are two main approaches in anomaly detection: supervised and unsupervised. The supervised approach accurately detects the known anomalies included in training data, but it cannot detect the unk…
Pseudo-Likelihood Inference improves ABC for high-dimensional Bayesian inference.
We develop a novel approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework, ABCDP, that produces differentially private (DP) and approximate posterior samples. Our framework takes advantage of the Sparse Vector Technique (SVT), widely studied in the differential privacy literature. SVT incurs the privacy cost only when a cond…
AgABC improves ABC algorithm by balancing exploration and exploitation.
A new model-free variable importance method (IGCS) is introduced for high-dimensional data.
Survey of Monte Carlo methods for noisy, costly densities in reinforcement learning and ABC.