The paper shows how overreactions in stock prices can be predicted and used for trading.
problem Predicting and monetizing overreactions in stock prices as momentum signals.
method High-frequency data from Twitter, machine learning models (XGBoost, Random Forests, Deep Neural Networks, Bidirectional LSTMs), and SHAP for explainability.
result Machine learning models significantly outperform traditional overreaction rules at ultra short horizons.
Detects jumps in financial asset prices with U-shape volatility.
problem Identifying jumps in financial asset prices with varying volatility.
method Threshold method applied to five-minute log-returns.
result Visualized jumps and volatility patterns for Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock.
Pretrained time-series models outperform train-from-scratch baselines in financial return forecasting.
problem Financial return forecasting
method Pretrained time-series foundation models
result Pretrained TSFMs dominate the ranking distribution, accounting for 8 of 10 task-level wins.
Framework simulates market microstructure with stable Hawkes processes.
problem Reproduce realistic market order flow dynamics.
method Deterministic C++ LOB simulator with Hawkes-driven stochastic order flow.
result Derives stability and ergodicity proofs for Hawkes models.
Mamba outperforms Reformer in minute-level stock prediction using LLM sentiment scores.
problem Improving minute-level stock market prediction accuracy in volatile markets.
method Combining sentiment scores from top LLMs with stock price data, training Mamba and Reformer models.
result Mamba achieved lower error rates across all tested LLMs, especially with LLaMA 3.3--70B.
Sentiment analysis from LLMs improves financial trading performance.
problem Improving dynamic strategy optimization in financial markets.
method Integration of sentiment analysis from LLMs into RL frameworks.
result Sentiment-enhanced RL models outperform traditional RL models in net worth and cumulative profit.
Enhanced DQN model boosts trading performance with advanced techniques.
problem Improving automated trading performance in financial markets.
method Incorporation of Prioritized Experience Replay, Regularized Q-Learning, Noisy Networks, Dueling, Double DQN, and CNN architectures.
result Significantly improved returns and Sharpe Ratio compared to the original DQN model.
MNN improves American call option pricing accuracy.
problem Inaccurate valuation of American call options.
method Modular Neural Network (MNN) model.
result MNN model outperforms traditional models and FNN.
NeuroMemFPP uses LSTM to estimate FPP parameters with high accuracy.
problem Estimating parameters of fractional Poisson process with memory and long-range dependence.
method Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), for parameter estimation.
result The LSTM-based approach reduces MSE by about 55.3% compared to traditional MOM method.
The paper explores a Multi-Objective RL approach for trading that generalizes reward functions.
problem Improving performance in single-asset trading through adaptive reward functions.
method Developed a Multi-Objective Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithm to generalize reward functions and discount factors.
result The Multi-Objective algorithm demonstrates increased predictive stability and better performance in sparse reward scenarios.
Paper detects social media influencers affecting financial markets.
problem Impact of social media influencers on financial markets.
method Developed an early warning system for detecting suspicious social network activity.
result Discrepancy in meme and non-meme stocks' reactions to social networks.
We focus on two particular aspects of model risk: the inability of a chosen model to fit observed market prices at a given point in time (calibration error) and the model risk due to recalibration of model parameters (in contradiction to the model assumptions). In this context, we follow the approach of Glasserman and …
The research presented in this article provides an alternative option pricing approach for a class of rough fractional stochastic volatility models. These models are increasingly popular between academics and practitioners due to their surprising consistency with financial markets. However, they bring several challenge…
The paper compares various portfolio construction methods and their impacts on allocation, performance, and stability.
problem Investment portfolio optimization and allocation under different constraints and models.
method Comparison of mean-variance optimization, constrained optimization, Fama French five factor regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and Black-Litterman model.
result Black-Litterman model produces more stable and economically intuitive allocations compared to standard mean-variance optimization.
Study benchmarks cryptocurrency risk using GBM, revealing Lognormal limitations.
problem Tackles limitations of Lognormal assumption in modeling cryptocurrency volatility and VaR.
method Applies Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with Maximum Likelihood Estimation and correlated Monte Carlo Simulation.
result Observed limitations of Lognormal assumption in cryptocurrency volatility and VaR calculations.
NeuroMem-FHP framework estimates FHP parameters efficiently.
problem Estimating parameters of fractional Hawkes process (FHP) with long-range dependence.
method Developed LSTM and Transformer neural architectures to estimate FHP parameters directly from inter-arrival times.
result Transformer achieves highest estimation accuracy (MSE = 0.1634) compared to classical MLE (MSE = 2.8032).
Model financial time series using φ^4 quantum field theory.
problem Inaccuracies in Ising models for financial data.
method φ^4 quantum field theory with inhomogeneous couplings.
result Accurately reproduces higher-order statistics like market kurtosis.
Why do a market's prices move up or down? Claims about causes are made without actual information, and accepted or dismissed based upon poor or non-existent evidence. Here we investigate the price movements that ended with Apple stock closing at \$500.00 on January 18, 2013. There is a ready explanation for this price …
We confirm the square-root law of market impact on Apple Inc. using a large dataset.
problem Testing the square-root law of market impact on a single U.S. large-cap equity.
method Using a full market-by-order feed, we reconstruct metaorders and calibrate impact using the square-root formula.
result The square-root law is confirmed with a prefactor of 0.34, consistent with worldwide data.