Bayesian methods often misinterpret data and asymptotic concepts.
problem Misunderstandings in Bayesian predictive inference.
method Discussion of two specific misunderstandings.
result Consequences of misinterpretations illustrated through examples.
PiVoT improves real-time multi-object detection and tracking in clutter.
problem Challenges in multi-object detection and tracking from noisy point clouds.
method Variational inference for fast, clutter-resilient multi-object tracking.
result Substantial performance improvement over existing Bayesian trackers.
This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.
problem Bottleneck in Bayesian inference for state estimation from noisy sensor data.
method Processor-native uncertainty tracking for uncertainty propagation and inference.
result Deterministic approximate filtering with up to 805x speedup and competitive accuracy.
Develops geometric causal models for causal inference from dependent data.
problem Causal inference from structured, dependent data (e.g., spatial, network, molecular).
method Geometric causal models (GCMs) exploiting symmetries of data generating process, combining group theory, ergodic theory, and Bayesian inference.
result Establishes identification and estimation of causal effects from dependent data.
Integrates neural encoders into GLMMs for multimodal data analysis.
problem Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs assumes low-dimensional tabular predictors and does not handle high-dimensional modalities.
method Jointly learns modality-specific neural encoders with GLMM objective, performs variance-corrected stochastic-gradient MCMC.
result Preserves interpretable fixed and random effects while scaling to large longitudinal datasets.
Sparse Gaussian process quantile regression tackles computational challenges in Bayesian quantile regression.
problem Nonconjugacy and computational cost in Gaussian process quantile regression.
method Sparse Gaussian process framework with Laplace approximation, adaptive inducing-input placement, and sequential data acquisition.
result Accuracy of Laplace approximation and effectiveness of adaptive mechanisms in reducing predictive uncertainty.
Local mass perspective on Bayesian inference
problem Measuring distributional discrepancy in Bayesian inference
method Introducing Mass Index and Regularised Extended KL
result Proving inequalities for comparing local small-ball masses
Hierarchical Partial-Order Models for Ranking
problem Rank aggregation combining ordered lists
method Hierarchical partial-order models
result Bayesian inference for latent poset hierarchy
A single algebraic identity unifies information-theoretic variational results.
problem Deriving and generalizing classical information-theoretic variational results
method Proving a single algebraic mixed coincidence identity
result Unified derivation of classical cornerstones of information theory
Bayesian inference for inverse problems using mean-shift interacting particles
problem Bayesian inference for inverse problems
method Amortized mean-shift interacting particles
result Improves accuracy of Bayesian inference by reducing the number of samples needed
Test-time training adapts a pretrained model to each prompt via parameter updates, improving accuracy under pretraining-to-test distribution shifts.
problem Improving accuracy of pretrained models under distribution shifts.
method Explaining TTT behavior through a decision-theoretic lens.
result TTT reduces prediction error when updates are spectrally matched to the prompt's signal-to-noise ratio and aligned with query-relevant eigen-directions.
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
Bayesian approach learns causal concepts from diverse social surveys.
problem Inferring causal concepts from heterogeneous data with sparse changes.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with sequential Monte Carlo sampling.
result Model infers meaningful causal concepts and plausible relations.
New method learns diffusion transition density for Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference on diffusions with inaccessible boundaries.
method Neural Galerkin framework to solve FP equation with Dirac mass.
result Approximates likelihood function for efficient posterior sampling.
NPE trains neural networks to approximate posterior distributions in SIR models from final outcome data.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian inference for SIR models with final outcome data.
method Neural posterior estimation (NPE) using a logNormal posterior approximated by a neural network.
result NPE accurately recovers reference posteriors across various population sizes and transmission regimes.
Bayesian framework uses AI-generated data to improve parameter estimation.
problem Parameter estimation in models with unknown or unspecified likelihood.
method Exponentially tilted empirical likelihood with Dirichlet process posterior.
result AI-generated data can provide useful regularization for parameter estimation.
LoRA-Curve connects independent LoRA optima through continuous low-loss valleys, improving Bayesian model averaging.
problem Challenges in estimating epistemic uncertainty in LoRA-based Bayesian inference.
method Introduces LoRA-Curve, a segmented Bézier curve parameterization in the LoRA space, with free and anchored configurations.
result Empirically shows that connecting independent LoRA optima through continuous low-loss valleys improves mutual information of the predictive distribution.
Enhances model compression with multi-teacher knowledge distillation.
problem Uncertainty evaluation and diverse teacher expertise in model deployment.
method Bayesian inference and teacher-informed prior with entropy-based weighting.
result Improved predictive accuracy and robust uncertainty quantification.
Develops a new MCMC-based Wishart prior for Gaussian Process covariance matrix.
problem Difficult inference for multivariate Gaussian Processes with multiple lengthscale parameters.
method Introduces a self-assembled Wishart prior and uses MCMC for Bayesian inference on kernel hyperparameters.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the new prior in GP-based learning with empirical results.
Bayesian neural networks improve SHD classification and uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving screening for structural heart disease using noninvasive ECG and echocardiography.
method Comparing frequentist and Bayesian neural network classifiers on the EchoNext dataset.
result Bayesian classifiers provide more robust uncertainty quantification.
New method uses Rashomon sets to improve Bayesian inference in factorial designs.
problem Combustion of model uncertainty in factorial designs leads to multimodal posterior and convergence issues.
method Rashomon-seeded annealing, integrating high-performing models as warm start for AIS.
result Restores full posterior inference without exhaustive enumeration of model space.
Corrects errors in ILA for Bayesian inference in LGMs.
problem Error in ILA for non-Gaussian likelihoods in LGMs.
method Importance sampling scheme to correct ILA errors.
result Corrected posterior converges to the true posterior with increased samples.
SurvivalPFN simplifies survival analysis through amortized Bayesian inference.
problem Selecting appropriate survival analysis methods requires expertise and can be time-consuming.
method SurvivalPFN uses a prior-data fitted network for in-context Bayesian inference.
result SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance across diverse datasets.
New methods for Bayesian inference using mean shift particle systems.
problem Approximating expectations with unnormalized densities in Bayesian inference.
method Mean shift interacting particle systems that minimize maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result Mean shift interacting particle systems converge quickly and capture complex distributions.
Proposes a new method to approximate Bayesian predictive uncertainty.
problem Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model predictions.
method Self-supervised learning approach to approximate posterior predictive distribution.
result SSLA and ASSLA outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration.
VPR improves posterior uncertainty quantification by combining VI and predictive resampling.
problem Inaccurate posterior sampling with MCMC due to computational constraints.
method Variational predictive resampling (VPR) that uses VI's predictive strength and imputes future observations.
result VPR converges to the exact Bayesian posterior in a Gaussian location model and improves uncertainty quantification.
New method for Bayesian inference of Lévy-driven SDEs with jumps.
problem Bayesian inference for Lévy-driven SDEs is challenging due to discontinuities and heavy tails.
method Neural exponential tilting framework for variational inference.
result Accurately captures jump dynamics and reliable posterior inference in heavy-tailed regimes.
Improves AI-prior reliability for Bayesian inference.
problem Error propagation from predictive models into posterior inference.
method Rectified AI-informed prior elicitation framework.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in predictive performance.
This paper introduces a neural operator for probabilistic conditioning.
problem Probabilistic conditioning of random variables X X X given Y Y Y . method Develops a single operator that maps any joint density to its conditional, approximated by neural operators.
result Neural operators can approximate the conditioning operator to arbitrary accuracy.
A new method learns posterior and predictive distributions together, reducing computational cost.
problem Sequential two-stage Bayesian inference is computationally expensive.
method Amortized variational inference targeting posterior-predictive distribution.
result Efficient online inference with more accurate predictive distributions.
Bayesian framework for encoding uncertainty and inducing sparsity.
problem Handling uncertainty and inducing sparsity in statistical models.
method General Bayesian framework with explicit encoding of uncertainty and sparsity-inducing approach.
result Effective in linear and logistic regression, and Bayesian neural networks.
MIRA scores assess conditional distribution accuracy using joint samples.
problem Assessing the accuracy of candidate conditional distributions.
method Analytic expression for Mira score based on equal probability mass regions.
result Mira enables Bayesian model comparison by quantifying alignment with true process.
New method for Bayesian inference on large datasets.
problem Scalable sampling for Bayesian generalized linear mixed models on large datasets.
method Mirror Langevin dynamics with data subsampling, post-processing for variance estimation.
result Asymptotic, order-wise correct estimation of posterior variance.
Bayesian model selection can be misled by ELBO under certain conditions.
problem Misleading model selection when using ELBO for Bayesian inference.
method Analysis of ELBO-based hyperparameter learning in a simple regression model.
result Bayesian model selection can prefer overfit models when ELBO is used, contrary to evidence.
EnKBS smoothes complex systems with future observations for causal inference.
problem Improving state estimation in complex systems with rapid dynamics.
method Continuous-time ensemble Kalman-Bucy smoother for nonlinear dynamical systems.
result EnKBS provides derivative-free framework with high skill in various scientific problems.
Bayesian inference of discrete component states in civil infrastructures using PGMs and GNNs.
problem Inferring discrete states of civil infrastructure components from measurable responses is an ill-posed inverse problem.
method The study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). PGMs are used to model the problem, with parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. Inference is accomplished by GNNs, and a graph property-based training strategy is developed.
result The proposed framework effectively solves the challenges of inferring the posterior PDF for discrete variables in high-dimensional problems.
New method corrects selection bias in complex models.
problem Selection bias in statistical studies leading to systematic distortions.
method Amortized Bayesian inference with neural posterior estimation.
result Recover well-calibrated posterior distributions across diverse selection mechanisms.
New method reduces forecasting error by up to 67% in various data types.
problem Outliers and model misspecification in online infinite hidden Markov models.
method Batched Robust iHMM (BR-iHMM) with bounded posterior influence function.
result Reduces one-step-ahead forecasting error by up to 67% in various data types.
Bayesian method identifies dynamical models with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in selecting governing equations for dynamical systems.
method Bayesian sparse identification with model averaging.
result Accurately recovers sparse interaction structures with uncertainty quantification.
Novel framework for quantifying data distribution values.
problem Quantifying the value of data distributions from samples.
method Generalized Bayesian Inference with loss from transferability measures.
result Unified solution for various practical problems.
New method calibrates LLMs for safety-critical tasks with scalable Bayesian inference.
problem Overconfidence in LLMs after fine-tuning for specific tasks.
method Orthogonalized Low-Rank Adapters (PoLAR) with variational Bayesian inference.
result Scalable and well-calibrated uncertainty estimation for LLMs.
Paper addresses state estimation in sensor networks with intermittent data.
problem State estimation in sensor networks with packet dropouts and corrupted observations.
method Bayesian variational inference with a dual-mask generative model.
result The method effectively identifies system states and noise parameters.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
SymCircuit learns PC structure via entropy-regularized RL, improving inference efficiency and accuracy.
problem Greedy algorithms in PC structure learning lead to suboptimal solutions.
method Entropy-regularized reinforcement learning to train a learned generative policy for PC structure inference.
result SymCircuit learns the optimal policy as a tempered Bayesian posterior, improving inference efficiency and accuracy.
This study shows how social insects and machine learning methods share a common mathematical framework.
problem Understanding how decentralized systems achieve optimal decision-making.
method Developed a rigorous mathematical framework to show isomorphism between ant colonies and ensemble machine learning.
result Demonstrated that ant colony decision-making and random forest learning implement identical variance reduction strategies through decorrelation of identical units.
Bayesian model predicts mental health symptoms from IAT data, improving accuracy over D-score.
problem Limited predictive performance of D-score method for mental health assessment.
method Sparse hierarchical Bayesian model leveraging multi-modal data.
result AUCs of 0.73 (E-IAT) and 0.76 (PSY-IAT) in best modality configurations, significant after FDR correction.
New method uses MMAF-guided learning for spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasts.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of spatio-temporal data with causal structure.
method Generalized Bayesian methodology, MMAF-guided learning, ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks.
result Forecast performance comparable to, and sometimes better than, deep learning architectures.
VMoER improves uncertainty quantification in MoE layers for scalable foundation models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in large-scale models like MoE layers.
method Structured Bayesian approach with amortized variational inference over routing logits and temperature parameter inference.
result Improves routing stability, reduces calibration error, and increases AUROC by 12%.
Proposes a Bayesian framework for causal inference without explicit likelihood modeling.
problem Challenges in principled Bayesian inference for causal effects.
method Generalized Bayesian framework that places priors directly on causal estimands and updates using identification-driven loss functions.
result Yields generalized posteriors for causal effects with uncertainty quantification.
Dual-space sampling tackles ill-conditioned inverse problems with Bayesian methods.
problem Bayesian inference in constrained inverse problems with ill-conditioned solutions.
method Dual-space posterior sampling using ADMM and SVGD.
result Well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and posterior contraction with increasing data.
New method discovers mean and variance causal graphs from heteroscedastic data.
problem Understanding causal relationships in data with varying variance.
method Bayesian, moment-driven approach inferring separate mean and variance causal graphs.
result Accurately recovers mean and variance structures from heteroscedastic data.
The paper tackles sampling from Gibbs measures with constrained support, providing a sampling guarantee.
problem Sampling from Gibbs measures with constrained support, especially in the pre-asymptotic regime.
method Analyzing the spectral gap of Langevin dynamics to provide a non-asymptotic sampling guarantee.
result The low-temperature Gibbs distribution concentrates on a neighborhood of its mode in the pre-asymptotic regime.
New method reduces variance in Bayesian inverse problems.
problem High variance in Monte Carlo estimates for inverse problems.
method Conditional neural control variates based on Stein's identity.
result Substantial variance reduction across different inverse problems.
Bayesian method for imputing actigraph data from mobile devices.
problem Imputing missing actigraph data from mobile devices.
method Bayesian inference and hierarchical dynamic linear model.
result Statistical learning of time-varying impact of explanatory variables on acceleration.
This paper connects RND, deep ensembles, and Bayesian inference, providing a unified theoretical perspective.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Analysis of Random Network Distillation (RND) within the neural tangent kernel framework.
result The uncertainty signal from RND is equivalent to the predictive variance of a deep ensemble and can be made to mirror the centered posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian inference.
Transformer pretraining yields strong EB performance without explicit adaptation.
problem Empirical Bayes problems with unknown test distributions.
method Indirect analysis of pretrained transformer's performance under universal priors.
result Near-optimal regret bound of O ~ ( 1 n ) \widetilde{O}(\frac{1}{n}) O ( n 1 ) for arbitrary test distributions. Bayesian framework for analyzing heterogeneous covariance data with a novel MoE-Wishart model.
problem Analyzing complex multivariate systems with varying covariance structures.
method Comprehensive Bayesian framework using mixture-of-experts Wishart model with predictor-dependent mixture weights.
result Accurate subpopulation recovery and estimation in heterogeneous covariance scenarios.
Bayesian method infers contextual bandit policies robustly.
problem Inference of contextual bandit policies in small sample sizes.
method Empirical likelihood for Bayesian inference.
result Accurate uncertainty measurements and policy comparison.
BayesFlow 2 speeds up Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Slow Bayesian inference for complex models.
method Amortized Bayesian inference with neural networks.
result Streamlined workflow supports broad adoption.
PDMP samplers improve Bayesian PDE coefficient inference.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference in non-linear inverse problems with expensive likelihoods.
method Piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) with surrogate-assisted thinning.
result PDMP samplers achieve higher accuracy and efficiency than traditional methods.