The paper explores why a specific type of predictor works well in noisy data.
problem Understanding why a specific type of predictor (minimum-norm interpolator) works well in noisy data.
method The paper uses uniform convergence and zero-error predictors in a norm ball to explain the success of the minimum-norm interpolator.
result The minimum-norm interpolator is consistent, and this can be explained by uniform convergence of zero-error predictors in a norm ball.
New research challenges the flatness-generalization link in deep neural networks.
problem The correlation between flatness of the loss landscape and generalization in deep neural networks is questioned.
method The study examines various flatness measures and popular SGD variants, finding some break the flatness-generalization link. It proposes using logP(f), a global quantity, as a predictor of generalization. result The log of Bayesian prior upon initialization, logP(f), is a significantly more robust predictor of generalization than flatness measures. We consider general non-Euclidean distance measures between real world objects that need to be classified. It is assumed that objects are represented by distances to other objects only. Conditions for zero-error dissimilarity based classifiers are derived. Additional conditions are given under which the zero-error deci…
Improvement-aware algorithms can achieve zero error in learning tasks.
problem Learning with agents who can improve their performance.
method Develops algorithms that account for agent improvement to achieve zero error.
result Improvement can reduce sample complexity or make learning harder.
We consider the problem of estimating the arithmetic average of a finite collection of real vectors stored in a distributed fashion across several compute nodes subject to a communication budget constraint. Our analysis does not rely on any statistical assumptions about the source of the vectors. This problem arises as…
The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single predictor that performs asymptotically as well as the best predictor in C, on any data.…
New bounds explain deterministic non-smooth deep nets without large Lipschitz constants.
problem Challenges in explaining generalization of deterministic non-smooth deep nets.
method De-randomized PAC-Bayes margin bounds for deterministic non-convex and non-smooth predictors.
result New bounds avoid large Lipschitz constants, providing generalization guarantees.
This paper proposes a method to reduce complexity in GLMs with categorical predictors.
problem Wasteful, hard-to-interpret, and prone to overfitting of traditional one-hot encoding for high-cardinality categorical predictors.
method Clustering categories of categorical predictors through a numerical method that preserves or improves accuracy while reducing the number of coefficients.
result Clustering categories of categorical predictors reduces complexity substantially without harming accuracy.
The article compares predictor importance in classification problems with categorical outcomes.
problem Comparing predictor importance in classification problems with categorical response variables.
method The approach is based on the categorical Gini correlation (CGC) and tests differences in CGCs across predictor groups.
result The proposed methodology accommodates predictors of arbitrary and unequal dimensions and allows for dependence between predictor groups.
Paper proposes a sparse synthetic control method to select important predictors.
problem Choosing and weighting predictors affects synthetic control estimator performance.
method Sparse synthetic control procedure that penalizes predictors, derived in a linear factor model.
result Sparse synthetic control achieves lower bias and better post-treatment performance.
This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or tertiary predictors and allows the number of predictors to exceed the size of the sa…
WeakNAS uses a set of weaker predictors to find top architectures with fewer samples.
problem Finding the best neural architecture with heavy computation costs.
method Proposes a paradigm shift from fitting the whole architecture space to progressively fitting a search path through a set of weaker predictors.
result WeakNAS produces coarse-to-fine iteration to gradually refine the ranking of sampling space, requiring fewer samples to find top-performance architectures.
Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.
problem Creating fair and robust machine learning models that behave consistently across different scenarios.
method Graphical criteria and a model-agnostic framework called CIP based on HSCIC.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of CIP in enforcing counterfactual invariance across various datasets.
This paper continues study, both theoretical and empirical, of the method of Venn prediction, concentrating on binary prediction problems. Venn predictors produce probability-type predictions for the labels of test objects which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under the standard assumption that the observations ar…
Derives bounds for deterministic predictors using smooth loss functions.
problem Generalizing probabilistic predictors to deterministic ones.
method Exploits smoothness properties of loss and predictor classes, controlling the Jensen gap class through Rademacher complexity.
result Derives bounds for deterministic predictors involving flatness quantities from Jacobians and Hessians.
Evolutionary methods improve neural network loss functions, reducing overfitting.
problem Improving neural network performance and preventing overfitting.
method Evolutionary computation to optimize loss functions, balancing error pull and overfitting push.
result Evolved loss functions effectively reduce overfitting, leading to better performance and robustness.
Study shows competition feedback can make ML predictors biased towards specific user groups.
problem How competition affects machine learning predictors and user prediction quality.
method Flexible model of competing ML predictors, empirical and mathematical analysis.
result Competition causes predictors to specialize for specific sub-populations at the cost of general performance.
Study on merging predictors in causal and anticausal directions using CMAXENT.
problem Comparing merging predictors in causal and anticausal directions.
method Using CMAXENT as inductive bias, study differences in merging predictors.
result CMAXENT solution reduces to logistic regression in causal direction and LDA in anticausal direction.
Paper introduces SUEL model for integrating predictors without labeled data.
problem Combining predictors with unknown accuracy and high correlation.
method Structured unsupervised ensemble learning (SUEL) with correlation-based decomposition algorithms.
result Efficient integration of dependent predictors without labeled data.
The paper develops predictors for functional data on manifolds.
problem Functional data prediction on time-varying manifolds.
method Least-squares local linear Fréchet curve predictor and weighted Fréchet mean approach.
result Asymptotical optimality of the proposed predictors.
Adaptive kernels from neural networks improve model performance.
problem Improving neural network performance through adaptive kernels.
method Deriving adaptive kernels from infinite-width neural networks using feature learning and gradient flow training.
result Adaptive kernels achieve lower test loss compared to traditional kernels.
Scaffolding sets improve predictor correctness across subsets.
problem Ensuring predictor correctness across multiple subsets.
method Inspired by neural nets, constructing scaffolding sets to ensure correctness.
result Scaffolding sets ensure predictor correctness, not just calibration.
Randomly sampled interpolators achieve zero generalization error with enough data.
problem Understanding the high generalization ability of machine learning models.
method Algebraic geometry tools to prove zero generalization error for random interpolators.
result Generalization error of randomly sampled interpolators becomes zero once the number of training samples exceeds a geometric threshold.
LESS combines local predictors for subsets to learn from heterogeneous input-output pairs.
problem Learning from heterogeneous input-output pairs in populations with varied behavior.
method LESS algorithm: generates subsets, trains local predictors, combines them.
result LESS is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Paper proposes SDDP for improving time series forecasting with high-dimensional predictors.
problem Improving time series forecasting with high-dimensional predictors.
method SDDP framework that incorporates target variable and lagged observations into factor extraction process.
result SDDP improves predictive accuracy in time series forecasting.
Novel strategy for federated learning with privacy-preserving predictors and nonvacuous generalization bounds.
problem Privacy-preserving federated learning with nonvacuous generalization bounds.
method Randomized predictors, PAC-Bayesian generalization bound, synchronous and heterogeneous/homogenous cases.
result Achieves comparable predictive performance to batch approach while preserving privacy.
Neurosymbolic predictors fail to model uncertainty under independence assumption.
problem Neurosymbolic predictors' reliance on independence assumption limits their ability to model uncertainty.
method Formal analysis of NeSy predictors under independence assumption.
result Assuming independence among symbolic concepts prevents NeSy predictors from representing uncertainty.
GATES improves neural architecture search by modeling operations as information transformation.
problem Improving predictor-based neural architecture search efficiency.
method GATES models operations as information transformation, covering both node and edge cell search spaces.
result GATES boosts sample efficiency and improves predictor performance.
AM-PPI uses multiple predictors to reduce label cost in healthcare AI.
problem Reduces label cost in post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI.
method Combines model predictions with a small labeled sample, routing each instance to a cost-appropriate subset of predictors.
result Produces narrower confidence intervals than single-predictor methods.
New loss function reduces outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation.
problem Minimizing outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation systems.
method Developed a novel loss function and trained an ML model to address the outage probability challenge.
result Exact and asymptotic expressions for the system's outage probability were established.
Overparameterized models are more vulnerable to membership inference attacks.
problem Vulnerability of overparameterized models to membership inference attacks.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of overparameterized linear and ridge-regularized linear regression models in the Gaussian data setting.
result Increased number of parameters and model complexity increase vulnerability to membership inference attacks.
The paper proposes multicalibration to improve matching in graphs with imperfect predictors.
problem Finding the best matching in graphs with imperfect predictors.
method Introduces multicalibration as a fairness notion to ensure unbiasedness on protected sets of contexts.
result Constructing a multicalibrated predictor that outperforms standard optimal rules in matching algorithms.
Study shows NCCP can replace CP for ACI in non-exchangeable data.
problem Ensuring reliable prediction under non-exchangeability.
method Demonstrates NCCP as a valid alternative to CP for ACI.
result NCCP offers computational advantages and comparable predictive efficiency.
Post-processing predictors reduces calibration errors for decision-making.
problem Predictors with low calibration error for machine learning may have high error for decision-making.
method Post-processing with ε distance to calibration adds noise to make predictions differentially private.
result Post-processing achieves O(√ε) ECE and CDL, asymptotically optimal.
A new method controls risk for set predictors using cross-validation.
problem Inefficient set predictors when data limited.
method Cross-validation conformal risk control (CV-CRC).
result CV-CRC offers theoretical guarantees and reduces set size.
A new method accounts for predictor dependencies in XAI feature rankings.
problem Assumption of predictor independence in XAI methods leads to unreliable feature rankings.
method Proposes a proxy method to modify XAI outcomes considering predictor dependencies.
result Allows more accurate feature ranking in models with correlated predictors.
New theory validates the use of invariant predictors for OOD generalization.
problem Ensuring predictors generalize well across unseen environments.
method Developed new theoretical conditions and derived an Inter Gradient Alignment algorithm.
result Validated the necessity of invariant predictors for OOD optimality.
Understanding optimal prompts for binary sequence predictors is challenging.
problem Finding good prompts for binary sequence predictors is difficult.
method Viewing prompting as finding the best conditioning sequence on a near-optimal sequence predictor, using empirical and statistical analysis.
result Optimal prompts can be better understood given the pretraining distribution, which is not usually available.
Optimal trading strategy with predictor and costs, derived equations and shape.
problem Optimal trading strategy in presence of price predictor, costs, and risk control.
method Path-integral method to derive equations for band edges, solved explicitly for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck predictor.
result Explicit equations and shape of the optimal band strategy derived and analyzed.
RF models implicitly regularize kernel methods as feature count increases.
problem Understanding implicit regularization in RF models.
method Random matrix theory applied to Gaussian RF models and KRR.
result The average RF predictor is close to a KRR predictor with an effective ridge.
In this work, we study the problem of aggregating a finite number of predictors for nonstationary sub-linear processes. We provide oracle inequalities relying essentially on three ingredients: (1) a uniform bound of the ℓ1 norm of the time varying sub-linear coefficients, (2) a Lipschitz assumption on the predict…
New sample complexity bounds for linear predictors and neural networks, focusing on initialization.
problem Understanding sample complexity for vector-valued linear predictors and neural networks, especially under initialization-dependent conditions.
method Size-independent bounds on Frobenius norm distance from a fixed reference matrix, applying to vector-valued predictors and neural networks.
result Established new sample complexity bounds for feed-forward neural networks, resolving open questions and introducing a new learnable problem.
Efficiency criteria improve conformal predictors' performance.
problem Improving the performance of conformal predictors.
method Learning classifiers by minimizing observed fuzziness as a training objective function.
result Conformal predictors trained by minimizing observed fuzziness perform better than traditional ones.
Proposes a method to learn fair predictors for multiple subgroups with limited data.
problem Fairness and accuracy issues in learning from multiple subgroups with limited data.
method Formulates a bilevel objective to learn subgroup-specific predictors and a fair predictor that is close to all of them.
result The method effectively controls group sufficiency and generalization error, improving fairness and accuracy.
We consider a problem of data integration. Consider determining which genes affect a disease. The genes, which we call predictor objects, can be measured in different experiments on the same individual. We address the question of finding which genes are predictors of disease by any of the experiments. Our formulation i…
Group model selection is the problem of determining a small subset of groups of predictors (e.g., the expression data of genes) that are responsible for majority of the variation in a response variable (e.g., the malignancy of a tumor). This paper focuses on group model selection in high-dimensional linear models, in w…
Neural CDEs correct errors in learned time-series models for better forecasting.
problem Error accumulation in multi-step forecasts of learned time-series models.
method Predictor-Corrector framework with a neural controlled differential equation.
result The proposed framework consistently improves forecasting performance across various models.
Empirically, the PAC-Bayesian analysis is known to produce tight risk bounds for practical machine learning algorithms. However, in its naive form, it can only deal with stochastic predictors while such predictors are rarely used and deterministic predictors often performs well in practice. To fill this gap, we develop…