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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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72144216288 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for worst-case guarantees

Follow-the-Leader (FTL) is an intuitive sequential prediction strategy that guarantees constant regret in the stochastic setting, but has terrible performance for worst-case data. Other hedging strategies have better worst-case guarantees but may perform much worse than FTL if the data are not maximally adversarial. We…

2013-01-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a method to ensure low losses across all subpopulations in large datasets.

problem Standard practice of minimizing average loss fails to guarantee low losses across all subpopulations in heterogeneous datasets.
method Convex procedure that controls worst-case performance over all subpopulations of a given size with finite-sample convergence guarantees.
result Empirically, the worst-case procedure learns models that do well against unseen subpopulations.

We design a general framework for answering adaptive statistical queries that focuses on providing explicit confidence intervals along with point estimates. Prior work in this area has either focused on providing tight confidence intervals for specific analyses, or providing general worst-case bounds for point estimate…

2019-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a modular framework for market making. It combines cost-function based automated market makers with bandit algorithms. We obtain worst-case profits guarantee's relative to the best in hindsight within a class of natural "overround" cost functions . This combination allow us to have distribution-free guaran…

2011-12-01abs ↗pdf ↗

2D Total Variation Denoising (TVD) is a widely used technique for image denoising. It is also an important nonparametric regression method for estimating functions with heterogenous smoothness. Recent results have shown the TVD estimator to be nearly minimax rate optimal for the class of functions with bounded variatio…

2019-02-04abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper analyzes how randomizing rewards in MBRL can improve performance without being overly optimistic.

problem The gap between theoretical worst-case regret analysis and empirical performance in MBRL.
method Reward randomization in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) with kernelized linear regulator (KNR) model.
result Reward randomization guarantees partial optimism and near-optimal worst-case regret.

Improved algorithms for stochastic linear bandits using tighter confidence sequences.

problem Stochastic linear bandits with improved worst-case regret guarantees.
method Novel tail bound for adaptive martingale mixtures to construct tighter confidence sequences.
result Linear bandit algorithm achieves competitive worst-case regret.

Paper aims to ensure reliable detection of out-of-distribution data with certifiable worst-case guarantees.

problem Deep neural networks are overconfident with OOD inputs, posing safety risks.
method Enforces low confidence and bounds in an ll_\infty-ball around OOD points using interval bound propagation (IBP).
result Certifiable worst-case guarantees for OOD detection are possible without significant loss in accuracy.

We give two provably accurate feature-selection techniques for the linear SVM. The algorithms run in deterministic and randomized time respectively. Our algorithms can be used in an unsupervised or supervised setting. The supervised approach is based on sampling features from support vectors. We prove that the margin i…

2014-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

The goal of regression and classification methods in supervised learning is to minimize the empirical risk, that is, the expectation of some loss function quantifying the prediction error under the empirical distribution. When facing scarce training data, overfitting is typically mitigated by adding regularization term…

2017-10-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Robustness is important for sequential decision making in a stochastic dynamic environment with uncertain probabilistic parameters. We address the problem of using robust MDPs (RMDPs) to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning. The quality and robustness of an RMDP solution is det…

2018-11-15abs ↗pdf ↗

L-ARC improves model fairness by localizing risk guarantees.

problem Improving model fairness in tasks like image segmentation and wireless networks.
method Localized Adaptive Risk Control (L-ARC) updates a threshold function in RKHS to target localized statistical risk guarantees.
result L-ARC produces prediction sets with improved fairness across different data subpopulations.

Framework for worst-case generation using Wasserstein space optimization.

problem Evaluating robustness and stress-testing systems under distribution shifts.
method Min-max optimization over continuous probability distributions in Wasserstein space.
result Global convergence guarantees for the proposed Gradient Descent Ascent scheme.

The study assesses external validity by evaluating worst-case treatment effects across subpopulations.

problem Underrepresentation of marginalized groups and limited study populations.
method Develops a semiparametrically efficient estimator for worst-case treatment effects (WTE) and uses cross-fitting to guard against brittle findings.
result The proposed framework guards against invalid findings due to unanticipated population shifts.

Paper proves higher-order flow matching preserves optimality in generative modeling.

problem Theoretical guarantees for higher-order flow matching in generative modeling.
method Neural network approximations with controlled depth, width, and sparsity.
result Proves worst case optimality for second-order flow matching.

RH-UCRL combines pessimism and optimism for robust RL.

problem Ensuring reliable performance in real-world RL tasks with worst-case scenarios.
method RH-UCRL is a model-based RL algorithm that optimizes between an agent and an adversary, distinguishing between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty.
result RH-UCRL achieves near-optimal sample complexity guarantees and outperforms other robust RL algorithms in adversarial environments.

Study on proper learning under relaxed worst-case robust loss for VC classes.

problem Proper adversarially robust PAC learning under relaxed worst-case robust loss.
method Introduced a family of robust loss relaxations and showed their effectiveness for proper learnability.
result VC classes are properly PAC learnable with sample complexity close to standard PAC learning setup.

This paper improves active learning for Gaussian process regression to handle distributional uncertainty.

problem Active learning for Gaussian process regression does not guarantee accurate predictions for target distributions.
method Proposes two methods to reduce worst-case expected error for Gaussian process regression.
result Shows an upper bound of the worst-case expected squared error, suggesting finite data labels can achieve arbitrarily small error.

New algorithms improve performance guarantees for multi-armed bandits problems.

problem Allocating effort under uncertainty in scenarios like investing research effort.
method Proposed two new families of bandit algorithms with stronger guarantees.
result Achieved optimal dependence on k with additional properties of arm reward curves.

The study assesses ML model robustness under worst-case subpopulations.

problem ML model performance degradation under non-training population.
method Two-stage estimation procedure for evaluating worst-case robustness over subpopulations.
result The method certifies model robustness and prevents unreliable deployments.

Smoothed analysis is a powerful paradigm in overcoming worst-case intractability in unsupervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis. While polynomial time smoothed analysis guarantees have been obtained for worst-case intractable problems like tensor decompositions and learning mixtures of Gaussians, such guar…

2018-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimal decision-making using prediction sets to minimize risk.

problem Using prediction sets optimally for decision-making in uncertain scenarios.
method Decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize expected loss against a worst-case distribution.
result ROCP algorithm reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, especially in costly out-of-set errors.

This paper proposes a distributionally robust approach to logistic regression. We use the Wasserstein distance to construct a ball in the space of probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples. If the radius of this ball is chosen judiciously, we can guarantee that it contains t…

2015-09-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Hardness proof for agnostically learning halfspaces from worst-case lattice problems.

problem Agnostically learning halfspaces in the presence of noise.
method Reduction to worst-case lattice problems (GapSVP, SIVP).
result No efficient algorithm can achieve misclassification error better than 1/2 - γ under given hardness assumptions.

New framework improves worst-case generalization bounds for stochastic optimization.

problem Challenges in providing generalization guarantees for stochastic optimization algorithms.
method Introduces random set stability and empirically relevant complexity measures to avoid intractable mutual information terms.
result Bounded worst-case generalization error in terms of random set stability and empirically relevant complexity measures.

New algorithms improve causal graph discovery with adaptive interventions, even under worst-case interventional costs.

problem Discover causal relationships from data with adaptive interventions and node-dependent costs.
method Define new benchmarks and provide adaptive search algorithms for causal graph discovery.
result Logarithmic approximations achieved under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Recent literature on online learning has focused on developing adaptive algorithms that take advantage of a regularity of the sequence of observations, yet retain worst-case performance guarantees. A complementary direction is to develop prediction methods that perform well against complex benchmarks. In this paper, we…

2015-01-26abs ↗pdf ↗

We present methods for online linear optimization that take advantage of benign (as opposed to worst-case) sequences. Specifically if the sequence encountered by the learner is described well by a known "predictable process", the algorithms presented enjoy tighter bounds as compared to the typical worst case bounds. Ad…

2012-08-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Most methods for decision-theoretic online learning are based on the Hedge algorithm, which takes a parameter called the learning rate. In most previous analyses the learning rate was carefully tuned to obtain optimal worst-case performance, leading to suboptimal performance on easy instances, for example when there ex…

2011-10-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian optimization for function-valued responses, addressing worst case deviations.

problem Optimizing expensive functions with functional responses, focusing on worst case performance.
method Min-Max Functional Bayesian Optimization (MM-FBO) using Gaussian process surrogates and functional principal component analysis.
result MM-FBO consistently outperforms existing methods in synthetic and real-world applications.

New theory explains why normalization is preferred in SGD under heavy-tailed noise.

problem Understanding why normalization is preferred in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) under heavy-tailed noise.
method Developed a worst-case complexity theory for stochastically preconditioned SGD and its variants.
result Normalization guarantees convergence at optimal rates, while clipping may fail in the worst case.

We analyze a simple prefiltered variation of the least squares estimator for the problem of estimation with biased, semi-parametric noise, an error model studied more broadly in causal statistics and active learning. We prove an oracle inequality which demonstrates that this procedure provably mitigates the variance in…

2019-02-02abs ↗pdf ↗