Math model helps bees decide between winter survival and raising young.
problem Deciding between winter survival and raising young bees in honeybee colonies.
method Mathematical model considering resource geometry around the hive.
result Optimal resource allocation strategy for honeybee colonies.
Winterization of Texas power system profitable but risky, estimated at $11.74bn over 30 years.
problem Profitability and risk of winterizing Texas power system infrastructure.
method Combined temperature-dependent load and outage estimates over 71 years of climate data.
result Large-scale winterization of gas infrastructure and power plants is profitable, but risks are high due to low-frequency of cold spells.
Notions of Darwinian selection have been implicit in economic theory for at least sixty years. Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter have argued that while evolutionary thinking was prevalent in prewar economics, the postwar Neoclassical school became almost entirely preoccupied with equilibrium conditions and their mathema…
Advanced forecasting models outperform Holt-Winters and ARIMA for stock market data.
problem Forecasting stock market data with improved accuracy.
method Developed 24 two-parameter families of forecasting functions using a nonparametric approach.
result Our models outperform Holt-Winters and ARIMA in terms of lower sum of absolute errors and higher number of accurate forecasts.
New framework predicts crypto volatility, outperforming traditional models.
problem Forecasting volatility in cryptocurrencies during the crypto-winter.
method Combines LSTM and rough volatility models, using a parsimonious parametric model.
result Similar prediction performances with fewer parameters, suggesting universality of volatility mechanisms.
Study examines stock price reactions to Texas winter storm power outages.
problem Impact of natural disasters on stock market values.
method Used four benchmark models to measure abnormal returns.
result Firms experienced significant stock price drops after the Texas winter storm.
We present an instance segmentation algorithm trained and applied to a CCTV recording of beef cattle during a winter finishing period. A fully convolutional network was transformed into an instance segmentation network that learns to label each instance of an animal separately. We introduce a conceptually simple framew…
This article is based on the lectures in the Winter Braids V (Pau, Feb. 2015). Main puposel of this is to explain how to compute twisted Alexander polynomials for non-experts.
This is a survey of recent contributions to the area of special Kaehler geometry. It is based on lectures given at the 21st Winter School on Geometry and Physics held in Srni in January 2001.
Frame flows on certain symmetric spaces mix exponentially.
problem Exponential mixing of frame flows in convex cocompact locally symmetric spaces.
method Generalized local non-integrability and non-concentration properties to apply Dolgopyat's method.
result Exponential mixing of frame flows proved for convex cocompact locally symmetric spaces.
These notes are based on a lecture course given by the first author in the Sedano Winter School on K-theory held in Sedano, Spain, on January 22-27th of 2007. They aim at introducing K-theory of C^*-algebras, equivariant K-homology and KK-theory in the context of the Baum-Connes conjecture.
Study examines equity in post-Snow Uri recovery, finds disparities.
problem Disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations during recovery.
method County and census tract level data analysis, satellite imagery, statistical procedures.
result Negative associations between non-Hispanic whites and outages, positive associations with certain demographic variables.
SurvMixClust clusters survival data and predicts individual survival curves.
problem Integrating clustering into survival analysis for precision medicine.
method SurvMixClust learns latent representations for clustering and predicts survival functions using a mixture of non-parametric experts.
result SurvMixClust creates balanced clusters with distinct survival curves, outperforming clustering baselines and competing with non-clustering models in predictive accuracy.
These lecture notes are based on a mini-course given by the author at the sixth KAWA Winter School on March 23-26, 2015 at the Centro De Giorgi of Scuola Normale Superiore in Pisa. They provide an introduction to the study of the Kahler-Ricci flow on compact Kahler manifolds, and a detailed exposition of some recent de…
The paper predicts survival functions using random survival trees and concordance maximization.
problem Predicting conditional survival functions in right-censored data.
method The approach combines regression strategies with random survival trees and maximizes concordance.
result The proposed weighted predictor outperforms the usual survival cobra in terms of concordance.
Survival kernets scale deep kernel survival analysis to large datasets with interpretability and theoretical guarantees.
problem Scalable and interpretable deep kernel survival analysis for large datasets.
method Survival kernets use kernel netting for training set compression and XGBoost for warm-starting neural architecture search.
result Survival kernets achieve optimal time-dependent concordance index on various survival analysis datasets.
Survival MDN uses invertible functions to speed up survival analysis models.
problem Training neural ODEs for survival analysis is computationally expensive.
method Survival MDN applies an invertible positive function to MDN outputs.
result Survival MDN outperforms or matches other models on concordance, Brier score, and log-likelihood.
RSM provides insights into deep survival models' decision-making.
problem Ensuring trust in deep survival models' predictions for healthcare applications.
method Reverse survival model (RSM) framework that explains deep survival models' decisions.
result RSM extracts relevant features for deep survival models' predictions.
Neural network learns kernel functions for survival analysis and prediction intervals.
problem Predicting survival times for individuals based on similar training subjects.
method Develops a neural network framework to learn kernel functions for kernel survival analysis and uses these to construct valid prediction intervals.
result Neural network survival estimators are competitive with existing methods and provide valid prediction intervals.
Reduces survival analysis to common regression tasks.
problem Applying standard machine learning tools to survival analysis.
method Various reduction techniques to simplify survival analysis.
result Benchmark analysis shows improved predictive performance.
A new method clusters survival data using deep variational models.
problem Clustering survival data, a challenging task.
method Semi-supervised probabilistic approach with deep generative model.
result The method outperforms previous models in clustering and predicting survival times.
We investigate the effect of the proportional hazards assumption on prognostic and predictive models of the survival time of patients suffering from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We theoretically compare the underlying model formulations of several variants of survival forests and implementations thereof, includ…
Optimal Survival Trees improve accuracy in medical data analysis.
problem Analyzing censored outcomes in medical data.
method Mixed-integer optimization and local search techniques.
result Improves accuracy in large datasets compared to existing methods.
RSF models censored functional data for better survival analysis.
problem Modeling survival trajectories with censored data.
method Random Survival Forest for Censored Functional Data (RSF).
result Good performance in predicting survival variables.
Improves survival analysis across multiple domains with machine learning.
problem Adapting survival analysis to new or rare illness types with limited labeled data.
method Introduces a new survival metric and discrepancy measure for censored data, enabling domain adaptation.
result Superb performance on target domains, better treatment recommendations, and interpretable weight matrix.
HACSurv models dependencies between competing risks and censoring for improved survival analysis.
problem Inaccurate survival predictions due to ignoring dependencies between competing risks and censoring.
method HACSurv uses hierarchical Archimedean copulas to model dependencies and cause-specific survival functions.
result HACSurv improves accuracy in survival predictions and captures complex risk interactions.
Optimal survival trees ensemble reduces tree count and improves predictive performance.
problem Improving predictive performance in survival analysis.
method Grows a forest of optimal survival trees by ranking and selecting the best trees based on out-of-bag error.
result Reduces the number of trees in the ensemble while improving predictive performance.
In this paper we utilize a survival analysis methodology incorporating Bayesian additive regression trees to account for nonlinear and additive covariate effects. We compare the performance of Bayesian additive regression trees, Cox proportional hazards and random survival forests models for censored survival data, usi…
Efficiently clusters survival curves without computationally intensive resampling.
problem Identifying clusters of survival curves efficiently and scalably.
method Log-rank test combined with k-means clustering.
result Achieves comparable results to bootstrap-based methods but with improved efficiency.
Interpretable survival analysis improves heart failure risk prediction.
problem Improving heart failure risk prediction using survival analysis.
method Survival stacking, ControlBurn, Explainable Boosting Machines.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides novel insights.
auton-survival simplifies survival analysis for healthcare data.
problem Handling censored time-to-event data in healthcare.
method Open-source package for survival regression, adjustment, counterfactual estimation, phenotyping, and treatment effects.
result Demonstrates auton-survival's ability to support complex health and epidemiological questions.
SurvBESA predicts survival times using ensemble methods with self-attention.
problem Challenges in survival analysis due to censored data and unstable predictions.
method SurvBESA combines Beran estimators with a self-attention mechanism to predict survival times.
result SurvBESA outperforms state-of-the-art models in predicting survival times.
GBEST model improves survival analysis for small datasets.
problem Challenges in survival analysis, especially with small data.
method Bayesian bootstrap and Beta Stacy bootstrap methods integrated into bagging tree models.
result GBEST model outperforms classical survival models in predictive performance and stability.
SurvFD and SurvSHAP-IQ provide interpretable survival models by analyzing feature interactions.
problem Non-additivity of hazard and survival functions limits standard additive explanation methods.
method SurvFD decomposes higher-order effects into time-dependent and time-independent components, extending Shapley interactions to time-indexed functions.
result SurvFD and SurvSHAP-IQ offer a new perspective on survival explanations, explicitly characterizing feature interactions.
Enhances patient failure prediction using dynamic survival models.
problem Lack of precise individual level prediction in conventional models.
method Developed counterfactual dynamic survival model (CDSM).
result Inflection point of estimated survival curves predicts patient failure time.
FinSurvival provides a large-scale financial survival modeling benchmark.
problem Lack of large-scale, realistic, and freely available datasets for benchmarking AI survival models.
method Derived 16 survival modeling tasks from cryptocurrency lending data using an automated pipeline.
result Demonstrated that existing AI survival models are not well-suited for these challenging tasks.
Paper proposes a new combined regression strategy for conditional survival prediction.
problem Improving survival prediction accuracy using conditional survival function.
method Uses regression-based weak learners with area-norm proximity measure to create an ensemble technique.
result The proposed model outperforms Random Survival Forest and selects important variables effectively.
Paper proposes robust methods for estimating optimal treatment rules with censored survival data.
problem Estimating optimal treatment rules for censored survival data.
method Developed two robust criteria and a sampling-based difference-of-convex algorithm for learning optimal treatment rules.
result Proposed methods show improved performance compared to existing methods in simulations and real data.
Bayesian framework improves survival prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimates in survival models.
method Bayesian framework combining variational inference, neural multi-task logistic regression, and sparsity-inducing prior.
result Better quantification of survival uncertainty and more accurate predictions.
CDVI improves variational inference for survival analysis by considering censoring mechanisms.
problem Challenges in applying variational methods to survival data, especially the dependence on censoring.
method Censor-dependent variational inference (CDVI) tailored for latent variable models in survival analysis.
result Significant improvements in estimating individual survival distributions.
Enhances interpretability of functional survival models.
problem Lack of interpretability in functional survival models limits practical use.
method Introduces novel methods to enhance interpretability of FST and explainability of FRSF.
result Proposed methods yield efficient, easy-to-understand decision trees.
SurvHTE-Bench benchmarks HTE estimation in survival analysis with diverse datasets.
problem Challenges in estimating HTEs from right-censored survival data.
method Modular synthetic datasets, semi-synthetic datasets, and real-world datasets.
result First rigorous comparison of survival HTE methods under diverse conditions.
R package for machine learning in survival analysis.
problem Limited machine learning interfaces for survival analysis.
method Provides a comprehensive machine learning interface for survival analysis.
result Systematic infrastructure for survival modeling and evaluation.
SurvivalPFN simplifies survival analysis through amortized Bayesian inference.
problem Selecting appropriate survival analysis methods requires expertise and can be time-consuming.
method SurvivalPFN uses a prior-data fitted network for in-context Bayesian inference.
result SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance across diverse datasets.
New methods estimate survival functions with time-varying covariates.
problem Estimating survival functions with time-varying covariates.
method Generalized conditional inference and relative risk forests, adapted transformation forest.
result Proposed methods outperform traditional models in estimating survival functions.
DyS model improves survival analysis accuracy and interpretability.
problem Accurate and interpretable survival analysis models for healthcare.
method Feature-sparse Generalized Additive Model combining feature selection and interpretable prediction.
result DyS model outperforms other survival analysis models in interpretability and accuracy.
There has been increasing interest in modelling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. Current approaches have focused on designing special cost functions to handle censored survival data. We propose a very different method with two steps. In the first step, we transform each subject's survival …
TabSurv adapts tabular neural networks for survival analysis.
problem Survival analysis on tabular data using deep learning methods.
method Adapts modern tabular architectures to survival analysis using Weibull distribution or non-parametric prediction. Optimizes SurvHL histogram loss function.
result TabSurv consistently outperforms classical and deep learning baselines on 10 real-world survival datasets.