A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a new financial model capturing winning and losing streaks.
Study geodesic X-ray transform and streaking artifacts on simple surfaces or spaces of constant curvature.
The Labouchere gambling system is hypothesized to increase the probability of winning a predetermined arbitrary profit in a gambling system such as a coin flip or a roulette game in which both payouts and odds are 1:1. However, use of the system increases the downside monetary risk in the event of a streak of multiple …
Single image de-raining is an extremely challenging problem since the rainy image may contain rain streaks which may vary in size, direction and density. Previous approaches have attempted to address this problem by leveraging some prior information to remove rain streaks from a single image. One of the major limitatio…
The success of lottery ticket initializations (Frankle and Carbin, 2019) suggests that small, sparsified networks can be trained so long as the network is initialized appropriately. Unfortunately, finding these "winning ticket" initializations is computationally expensive. One potential solution is to reuse the same wi…
The lottery ticket hypothesis finds multiple winning sub-networks in neural networks.
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
The paper proposes a new method to forecast winning prices in real-time bidding.
E-LTH finds winning tickets scalable across different network architectures.
Paper confirms winning tickets have sharp minima, useful for generalization.
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making,…
This work proves win rate is key to understanding preference learning.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
This paper discusses the gambling contest introduced in Seel & Strack (Gambling in contests, Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 375, Mar 2012.) and considers the impact of adding a penalty associated with failure to follow a winning strategy. The Seel & Strack model c…
Calculates winning probability for three candidates based on support rates and information timing.
New bid shading algorithm reduces costs by 55%.
The thesis explores IMP, a process that identifies winning tickets in DNNs, and its universality.
Paper tackles learning win-win solutions in aggregation systems.
Model analyzes RFQ markets using stochastic control to optimize dealer performance and inventory.
Trading strategies that were profitable in the past often degrade with time. Since unlucky streaks can also hit "healthy" strategies, how can one detect that something truly worrying is happening? It is intuitive that a drawdown that lasts too long or one that is too deep should lead to a downward revision of the assum…
New method removes MRI banding without post-processing.
New algorithm for identifying Condorcet team in noisy comparisons.
Diagnostic stroke imaging with C-arm cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) enables reduction of time-to-therapy for endovascular procedures. However, the prolonged acquisition time compared to helical CT increases the likelihood of rigid patient motion. Rigid motion corrupts the geometry alignment assumed during reconst…
The paper calculates gap distributions for translation surfaces, focusing on the double heptagon.
Different models to study the wealth distribution in an artificial society have considered a transactional dynamics as the driving force. Those models include a risk aversion factor, but also a finite probability of favoring the poorer agent in a transaction. Here we study the case where the partners in the transaction…
This paper studies the correlations of the average winnings of agents and the volatilities of systems based on mix-game model which is an extension of minority game (MG). In mix-game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. The results show that the correl…
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
New attention model removes softmax, improving sequence length bias.
Faster WIND accelerates iterative BOND for LLM alignment.
Uniform AMMs control loss in prediction markets.
Uniform AMMs control loss in prediction markets.
The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM using an empirical model…
The Tangent Works team participated in GEFCom 2017 to test its automatic model building strategy for time series known as Tangent Information Modeller (TIM). Model building using TIM combined with historical temperature shuffling resulted in winning the competition. This strategy involved one remaining degree of freedo…
For homeland and transportation security applications, 2D X-ray explosive detection system (EDS) have been widely used, but they have limitations in recognizing 3D shape of the hidden objects. Among various types of 3D computed tomography (CT) systems to address this issue, this paper is interested in a stationary CT u…
Improved pruning method finds winning neural network subnetworks.
In this work, we consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the internal structure of an object from limited x-ray projections. We use a Gaussian process prior to model the target function and estimate its (hyper)parameters from measured data. In contrast to other established methods, this comes with the advantage …
Combinatorial two-player games have recently been applied to knot theory. Examples of this include the Knotting-Unknotting Game and the Region Unknotting Game, both of which are played on knot shadows. These are turn-based games played by two players, where each player has a separate goal to achieve in order to win the…
We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and games in the NFL season and use them alongside statistical game data to build predic…
We solve exactly a simple model of trend following strategy, and obtain the analytical shape of the profit per trade distribution. This distribution is non trivial and has an option like, asymmetric structure. The degree of asymmetry depends continuously on the parameters of the strategy and on the volatility of the tr…
(Frankle & Carbin, 2019) shows that there exist winning tickets (small but critical subnetworks) for dense, randomly initialized networks, that can be trained alone to achieve comparable accuracies to the latter in a similar number of iterations. However, the identification of these winning tickets still requires the c…
We continue the study of statistical/computational tradeoffs in learning robust classifiers, following the recent work of Bubeck, Lee, Price and Razenshteyn who showed examples of classification tasks where (a) an efficient robust classifier exists, in the small-perturbation regime; (b) a non-robust classifier can be l…
Pruning FCNs reveals sub-networks that match CNNs' performance.
In mix-game which is an extension of minority game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. This paper studies the change of the average winnings of agents and volatilities vs. the change of mixture of agents in mix-game model. It finds that the correlatio…
State-space models win a forecasting competition for unstable data.
X-ray computed tomography (CT) using sparse projection views is a recent approach to reduce the radiation dose. However, due to the insufficient projection views, an analytic reconstruction approach using the filtered back projection (FBP) produces severe streaking artifacts. Recently, deep learning approaches using la…
The lottery ticket hypothesis proposes that over-parameterization of deep neural networks (DNNs) aids training by increasing the probability of a "lucky" sub-network initialization being present rather than by helping the optimization process (Frankle & Carbin, 2019). Intriguingly, this phenomenon suggests that initial…
Improved MACD trading strategies with other indicators for better performance.
Given a set of pairwise comparisons, the classical ranking problem computes a single ranking that best represents the preferences of all users. In this paper, we study the problem of inferring individual preferences, arising in the context of making personalized recommendations. In particular, we assume that there are …