A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a new financial model capturing winning and losing streaks.
Gamblers lose in long bets despite casino claims, study shows.
Investors in Bitcoin exhibit the disposition effect, selling winners and holding losers.
We solve exactly a simple model of trend following strategy, and obtain the analytical shape of the profit per trade distribution. This distribution is non trivial and has an option like, asymmetric structure. The degree of asymmetry depends continuously on the parameters of the strategy and on the volatility of the tr…
The paper proposes a new method to forecast winning prices in real-time bidding.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
Model analyzes RFQ markets using stochastic control to optimize dealer performance and inventory.
Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory…
The Labouchere gambling system is hypothesized to increase the probability of winning a predetermined arbitrary profit in a gambling system such as a coin flip or a roulette game in which both payouts and odds are 1:1. However, use of the system increases the downside monetary risk in the event of a streak of multiple …
Quantitative analysis of soccer players' passing ability focuses on descriptive statistics without considering the players' real contribution to the passing and ball possession strategy of their team. Which player is able to help the build-up of an attack, or to maintain the possession of the ball? We introduce a novel…
In recent years, reinforcement learning (RL) methods have been applied to model gameplay with great success, achieving super-human performance in various environments, such as Atari, Go, and Poker. However, those studies mostly focus on winning the game and have largely ignored the rich and complex human motivations, w…
Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take decision since responding to market uncertainty needs a constant update of these…
In this paper, we perform a minimalistic quantization of the classical game of tic-tac-toe, by allowing superpositions of classical moves. In order for the quantum game to reduce properly to the classical game, we require legal quantum moves to be orthogonal to all previous moves. We also admit interference effects, by…
A new approach to protein language models combines latent space prediction with masked language modeling.
The success of lottery ticket initializations (Frankle and Carbin, 2019) suggests that small, sparsified networks can be trained so long as the network is initialized appropriately. Unfortunately, finding these "winning ticket" initializations is computationally expensive. One potential solution is to reuse the same wi…
Algorithm learns to bid in auctions with shilling, masking real bids.
The lottery ticket hypothesis finds multiple winning sub-networks in neural networks.
We propose an analytically tractable variation of the minority game in which rational agents use probabilistic strategies. In our model, agents choose between two alternatives repeatedly, and those who are in the minority get a pay-off 1, others zero. The agents optimize the expectation value of their discounted fu…
Humans tend to learn complex abstract concepts faster if examples are presented in a structured manner. For instance, when learning how to play a board game, usually one of the first concepts learned is how the game ends, i.e. the actions that lead to a terminal state (win, lose or draw). The advantage of learning end-…
There have been increasing challenges to solve combinatorial optimization problems by machine learning. Khalil et al. proposed an end-to-end reinforcement learning framework, S2V-DQN, which automatically learns graph embeddings to construct solutions to a wide range of problems. To improve the generalization ability of…
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
E-LTH finds winning tickets scalable across different network architectures.
A simple example shows that losing all money is compatible with a very high Sharpe ratio (as computed after losing all money). However, the only way that the Sharpe ratio can be high while losing money is that there is a period in which all or almost all money is lost. This note explores the best achievable Sharpe and …
Learning an effective representation for high-dimensional data is a challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL). Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) such as Deep Q networks (DQN) achieves remarkable success in computer games by learning deeply encoded representation from convolution networks. In this paper, we pro…
Paper confirms winning tickets have sharp minima, useful for generalization.
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making,…
This work proves win rate is key to understanding preference learning.
This paper discusses the gambling contest introduced in Seel & Strack (Gambling in contests, Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 375, Mar 2012.) and considers the impact of adding a penalty associated with failure to follow a winning strategy. The Seel & Strack model c…
Calculates winning probability for three candidates based on support rates and information timing.
New bid shading algorithm reduces costs by 55%.
The thesis explores IMP, a process that identifies winning tickets in DNNs, and its universality.
Paper tackles learning win-win solutions in aggregation systems.
Proposes a transfer learning framework to improve U.S. election prediction models.
Market timing is an investment technique that tries to continuously switch investment into assets forecast to have better returns. What is the likelihood of having a successful market timing strategy? With an emphasis on modeling simplicity, I calculate the feasible set of market timing portfolios using index mutual fu…
New algorithm for identifying Condorcet team in noisy comparisons.
The paper calculates gap distributions for translation surfaces, focusing on the double heptagon.
Different models to study the wealth distribution in an artificial society have considered a transactional dynamics as the driving force. Those models include a risk aversion factor, but also a finite probability of favoring the poorer agent in a transaction. Here we study the case where the partners in the transaction…
This paper studies the correlations of the average winnings of agents and the volatilities of systems based on mix-game model which is an extension of minority game (MG). In mix-game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. The results show that the correl…
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
Corporate transparency reduces investors' disposition effect by increasing confidence in holding profitable and losing stocks.
Research explores how local communities and corporations interact in finance.
Faster WIND accelerates iterative BOND for LLM alignment.
Uniform AMMs control loss in prediction markets.
Uniform AMMs control loss in prediction markets.
The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM using an empirical model…
The Tangent Works team participated in GEFCom 2017 to test its automatic model building strategy for time series known as Tangent Information Modeller (TIM). Model building using TIM combined with historical temperature shuffling resulted in winning the competition. This strategy involved one remaining degree of freedo…
Hybrid method uses LLM to filter lead-lag relationships in prediction markets.
Improved pruning method finds winning neural network subnetworks.