New framework uses trading volume instead of volatility for stock pricing.
problem Improving stock price dynamics understanding and market data gap.
method Proposes a new stock pricing model using trading volume instead of volatility, based on two hypotheses.
result The new framework can be applied to option pricing and points to a new direction in finance.
ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or (what economists lable as) white noise as is usual in regression analysis while assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH is inconsistent with uncorrelated increments, violating the i.i.d. and white ass…
We present a new approach to the optimal portfolio problem for an insider with logarithmic utility. Our method is based on white noise theory, stochastic forward integrals, Hida-Malliavin calculus and the Donsker delta function.
This paper studies business cycle patterns in UK sectoral output. It analyzes the distinction between white noise processes and their non-white noise counterparts in the frequency domain and further examines the associated features and patterns for the process where white noise conditions are violated. The characterist…
The paper defines the time function of stock prices using a mathematical model.
problem Understanding the movement and predictability of stock prices over time.
method Empirical evidence and mathematical modeling of white noise.
result Derives auto-correlation function, displacement formula, and power spectral density of stock price movement.
A statistical framework for removing unwanted data domains in machine learning.
problem Removing unwanted data domains in machine learning while preserving desired performance.
method Modeling domains as probability distributions and using hypothesis testing to select samples to remove.
result Characterization of allowable edited data distributions and removal-preservation Pareto frontiers for various distribution families.
Generative Adversarial Nets (GANs) and Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) provide impressive image generations from Gaussian white noise, but the underlying mathematics are not well understood. We compute deep convolutional network generators by inverting a fixed embedding operator. Therefore, they do not require to be o…
Mathematical study of learning long-term integration in linear RNNs.
problem How do linear recurrent neural networks learn to integrate over long timescales?
method Analytical study of linear RNNs trained to integrate white noise and damped oscillatory filters.
result Learning dynamics are described by low-dimensional effective equations for outlier eigenvalues.
G-framework is presented by Peng [41] for measure risk under uncertainty. In this paper, we define fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm). Fractional G-Brownian motion is a centered G-Gaussian process with zero mean and stationary increments in the sense of sub-linearity with Hurst index H∈(0,1). This process has sta…
The evolution of prices on ideal market is given by geometrical Brownian motion, where Gaussian white noise describes fluctuations. We study the effect of correlations introduced by a color noise.
Recursive KalmanNet combines neural networks with Kalman filters for precise state estimation.
problem State estimation in systems with noisy measurements and non-Gaussian noise.
method Recursive KalmanNet uses a recurrent neural network to estimate states with consistent error covariance, optimizing for Gaussian negative log-likelihood.
result Recursive KalmanNet outperforms conventional Kalman filters and deep learning-based estimators in non-Gaussian noise conditions.
New method controls mean exit time in stochastic systems using machine learning and quasipotential.
problem Controlling mean exit time in stochastic dynamical systems with white noise.
method Developed a neural network to compute the quasipotential function and designed an algorithm to calculate the controller.
result Effective and accurate control strategy demonstrated through numerical experiments.
Paper studies federated nonparametric testing with privacy constraints, achieving optimal rates and adaptive testing.
problem Federated nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing under distributed differential privacy constraints.
method Establishes matching lower and upper bounds on minimax separation rate, constructs adaptive testing procedure.
result Achieves optimal rates and demonstrates phase transition phenomena in federated testing.
A new machine learning method for Bayesian inverse problems in function spaces.
problem Bayesian inverse problems in function spaces with incompatibility of white noise sources.
method One-step generative transport with amortized neural operator and prior-aligned Gaussian random field.
result Generative operator trained on prior samples and noisy observations generates posterior samples efficiently.
New method trims network data to resist adversarial contamination.
problem Adversarial contamination in network data affects statistical and algorithmic performance.
method Proposes a new trimming method operating in model space to address both block and white noise contamination.
result Demonstrates superior performance in simulations compared to direct trimming.
The paper develops a method to model high-dimensional data with many variables and weak signals.
problem Modeling high-dimensional dependent data with many explanatory variables and low signal-to-noise ratio.
method Penalized regression for high-dimensional data, factor modeling of residuals, high-dimensional white noise testing, projected Principal Component Analysis.
result Established asymptotic properties of the proposed method for high-dimensional data.
We investigate and compare the fundamental performance of several distributed learning methods that have been proposed recently. We do this in the context of a distributed version of the classical signal-in-Gaussian-white-noise model, which serves as a benchmark model for studying performance in this setting. The resul…
A multilayer perceptron can behave as a generative classifier by applying bidirectional learning (BL). It consists of training an undirected neural network to map input to output and vice-versa; therefore it can produce a classifier in one direction, and a generator in the opposite direction for the same data. The lear…
Paper estimates non-causal graphical models using covariance extension and transportation distance.
problem Estimating non-causal graphical models with smoothing relations.
method Proposes a covariance extension problem and uses transportation distance to minimize error with white noise.
result Solution is a double-sided autoregressive non-causal graphical model.
I introduce Forecastable Component Analysis (ForeCA), a novel dimension reduction technique for temporally dependent signals. Based on a new forecastability measure, ForeCA finds an optimal transformation to separate a multivariate time series into a forecastable and an orthogonal white noise space. I present a converg…
Random neural networks with ReLU activations are non-Gaussian processes.
problem Understanding the behavior of neural networks with random initialization and rectified linear units.
method Proving these networks are non-Gaussian processes and deriving their properties.
result These networks can converge to non-Gaussian processes under certain conditions.
We present the Causal Gaussian Process Convolution Model (CGPCM), a doubly nonparametric model for causal, spectrally complex dynamical phenomena. The CGPCM is a generative model in which white noise is passed through a causal, nonparametric-window moving-average filter, a construction that we show to be equivalent to …
Quantum probability theory constructs Martingales for non-Brownian financial models.
problem Constructing Martingales for financial models using fractional Brownian motion.
method Quantum probability theory and Wick product.
result Quantum probability framework allows for Martingale construction without Brownian integrals.
A central challenge in neuroscience is to understand neural computations and circuit mechanisms that underlie the encoding of ethologically relevant, natural stimuli. In multilayered neural circuits, nonlinear processes such as synaptic transmission and spiking dynamics present a significant obstacle to the creation of…
A framework for hypothesis testing on attributed graphs using sampling.
problem Statistical testing on graph data, especially large attributed graphs.
method Sampling-based framework with PHASE and PHASEopt for accurate and efficient hypothesis testing.
result PHASE and PHASEopt improve accuracy and efficiency of hypothesis testing in attributed graphs.
A justification of the Basel liquidity formula for risk capital in the trading book is given under the assumption that market risk-factor changes form a Gaussian white noise process over 10-day time steps and changes to P&L are linear in the risk-factor changes. A generalization of the formula is derived under the more…
We consider the problem of learning the inhomogeneous intensity of a counting process, under a sparse segmentation assumption. We introduce a weighted total-variation penalization, using data-driven weights that correctly scale the penalization along the observation interval. We prove that this leads to a sharp tuning …
We present a study of generalization for data-dependent hypothesis sets. We give a general learning guarantee for data-dependent hypothesis sets based on a notion of transductive Rademacher complexity. Our main result is a generalization bound for data-dependent hypothesis sets expressed in terms of a notion of hypothe…
Let M be a 3-manifold with a finite set X(M) of conjugacy classes of representations ρ:π1(M)→SU2. We study here the distribution of the values of the Chern-Simons function CS:X(M)→R/2πZ. We observe in some examples that it resembles the distribution of quadratic residues. In particula…
The paper sets thresholds for testing correlation in hypergraphs, distinguishing between independent and correlated states.
problem Testing correlation between two hypergraphs under different models.
method Derives sharp information-theoretic thresholds for distinguishing between null and alternative hypotheses.
result The testing threshold decreases as the hypergraph's uniformity (m) increases, making correlation testing easier for higher uniformity.
Hypothesis testing is an important problem with applications in target localization, clinical trials etc. Many active hypothesis testing strategies operate in two phases: an exploration phase and a verification phase. In the exploration phase, selection of experiments is such that a moderate level of confidence on the …
Learnable multiclass hypothesis classes don't always have a sample compression scheme of fixed size.
problem The limitation of sample compression schemes for multiclass hypothesis classes.
method Analysis of DS dimension and sample compression schemes.
result Learnable multiclass hypothesis classes do not always have a sample compression scheme of fixed size.
Paper resolves open problems on sample complexity in binary hypothesis testing.
problem Open problems in distributed simple binary hypothesis testing under information constraints.
method One-shot lower bound on Bayes error, streamlined sample complexity formula, reverse data-processing inequality.
result Optimally tight sample complexity bounds for communication-constrained simple binary hypothesis testing.
New bounds improve generalization in learning scenarios.
problem Limitations of existing information-theoretic bounds in SCO problems.
method Sample-conditioned hypothesis stability and neighboring-hypothesis matrix.
result Sharper generalization guarantees in various learning scenarios.
Bayesian posterior contraction rates improve with decreasing tails
problem Bayesian posterior contraction in nonparametric settings
method Using p-exponential tails for contraction rates result Improvement in contraction rates with decreasing tails
Paper tackles hypothesis transfer learning for black-box models.
problem Difficult to build universal machine learning models across different institutions.
method Dynamic Knowledge Distillation (dkdHTL) with instance-wise weighting.
result Empirical results show the effectiveness of dkdHTL.
Study hypothesis testing under quantized samples with communication constraints, achieving near-optimal sample complexity.
problem Optimizing hypothesis testing with quantized samples and communication constraints.
method Developed a polynomial-time algorithm achieving near-optimal sample complexity under communication constraints.
result Achieved near-optimal sample complexity under communication constraints, with a logarithmic factor increase over unconstrained setting.
Unified Bayesian framework improves clinical trial hypothesis testing.
problem Lack of transparency and inability to quantify evidence in traditional P-values.
method Interval null hypothesis framework combined with Bayes factor-based tests.
result Bayesian interval hypothesis testing ensures frequentist error control and interpretability.
Study on stochastic covariant derivatives in curved space-time.
problem Analyzing covariant derivatives in curved space-time under stochastic processes.
method Using Itô-Wiener processes and stochastic calculus, including Besov spaces, Schrödinger operators, and white noise.
result Developed a framework for stochastic geodesics and white noise in fractoid spaces.
The paper explores the trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional models.
problem Understanding the unavoidable trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional statistical models.
method Proposes a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of estimators with a specified bias, and applies it to various statistical models.
result Shows the extent to which the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and quantifies the performance loss for methods that do not balance it.
Study robust hypothesis testing under Hellinger distance, proving lower bounds and providing tests.
problem Testing close variants of specified distributions robustly to Hellinger distance.
method Lower bound on slack factor, testing with Hellinger balls, symmetric chi-squared distance analysis.
result Lower bound on slack factor quantifies robustness under misspecification.
The paper refutes the manifold hypothesis for image data and proposes the union of manifolds hypothesis.
problem The manifold hypothesis fails to capture the structure of image data.
method Empirical verification of the union of manifolds hypothesis on image datasets.
result Image data lies on a disconnected set with varying intrinsic dimensions.
We improve adversarial robustness calibration analysis for broader hypothesis sets.
problem Improving calibration for adversarial robustness in machine learning.
method A finer definition of calibration for adversarial robustness.
result Our results cover most common hypothesis sets in machine learning.
The Greenberg-Shalom hypothesis connects subgroup properties to lattice structures in Lie groups.
problem Understanding subgroup properties in Lie groups and their implications.
method Analyzing infinite discrete subgroups of semisimple Lie groups and their commensurators.
result An infinite discrete subgroup of a semisimple Lie group with a dense commensurator is a lattice in a product of some factors.
We provide a general probabilistic framework within which we establish scaling limits for a class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics. In the scaling limit, the joint dynamics of asset returns and volatility is driven by independent Gaussian white noises and two independent …
The problem of multiple hypothesis testing arises when there are more than one hypothesis to be tested simultaneously for statistical significance. This is a very common situation in many data mining applications. For instance, assessing simultaneously the significance of all frequent itemsets of a single dataset entai…
Paper proposes a robust hypothesis testing method using Sinkhorn distance.
problem Hypothesis testing for small samples.
method Data-driven approach using Sinkhorn uncertainty sets.
result The method provides a more flexible detector compared to Wasserstein robust test.
New private algorithm for sequential hypothesis testing with privacy and error rate guarantees.
problem Privacy protection in sequential hypothesis testing for sensitive data.
method Renyi differential privacy, Wald's Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT).
result Private algorithm with strong privacy guarantees and theoretical performance analysis.