Integrating causal machine learning with inherently interpretable models for decision support.
problem Providing causal insights and decision support through machine learning models.
method Proposing an approach that integrates causal machine learning with inherently interpretable models.
result The proposed approach achieves competitive performance in prediction and what-if analysis while offering transparency on the system structure, causal relationships among variables, and functional forms connecting them.
Model analyzes mortgage relief during financial hardship.
problem Understanding and optimizing mortgage relief during financial distress.
method Agent-based model of households and servicers.
result Model replicates real-world mortgage studies and provides fine-grained insights.
Method explains anomaly detection by generating normal modifications.
problem Complexity of deep learning methods in anomaly detection.
method Generates multiple alternative modifications for anomalies.
result High-quality semantic explanations provided for anomaly detection.
Counterfactuals help compare different scenarios in CI and XAI.
problem Comparing how counterfactuals are used in causal inference and explainable AI.
method Formal definition and comparison of counterfactuals in CI and XAI.
result Identified opportunities for cross-fertilization between CI and XAI.
A key challenge in developing and deploying Machine Learning (ML) systems is understanding their performance across a wide range of inputs. To address this challenge, we created the What-If Tool, an open-source application that allows practitioners to probe, visualize, and analyze ML systems, with minimal coding. The W…
Proposes MOC method for better counterfactual explanations in ML models.
problem Difficulties in balancing multiple objectives for counterfactual explanations.
method Translates counterfactual search into a multi-objective optimization problem.
result Returns diverse counterfactuals with different trade-offs and maintains feature diversity.
Survey of counterfactual explanations for time series classification.
problem Generating plausible and actionable counterfactuals for time series data.
method Review of various counterfactual generation methods for time series classification.
result Highlight unique challenges and strengths of existing methods.
The paper proposes a method to explain expert decisions by modeling preferences with 'what if' outcomes.
problem Interpreting and auditing decision-making policies in institutions.
method Integrating counterfactual reasoning into batch inverse reinforcement learning.
result The method effectively recovers accurate and interpretable descriptions of expert behavior.
Framework for transitioning financial models from risk-neutral to real-world measure.
problem Transitioning financial models from risk-neutral to real-world measure to better reflect market dynamics and investor preferences.
method Leveraging probability theory, specifically Girsanov's theorem, to incorporate real-world dynamics into financial models.
result Validation of the robustness and practical relevance of the methodology through case studies involving financial forecasts and stress tests.
A new method models continuous-time counterfactual outcomes using neural controlled differential equations.
problem Estimating personalized healthcare outcomes over irregularly sampled data.
method Interpreting data as samples from a continuous-time process, modeling latent trajectory using controlled differential equations, and using adversarial training for time-dependent confounding.
result TE-CDE consistently outperforms existing approaches in irregularly sampled scenarios.
Study uses data to analyze COPD patients' impact on hospital systems.
problem Understanding and quantifying resource requirements for COPD patients.
method Combines segmentation, queuing theory, and data recovery techniques.
result Finding useful operational results from incomplete administrative data.
TOO optimizes stochastic epidemiological models by finding both parameter settings and random seeds.
problem Calibrating stochastic epidemiological models to match empirical observations.
method Gaussian process surrogates and Thompson sampling for optimization.
result Produces actual trajectories consistent with ground truth.
Although deep reinforcement learning agents have produced impressive results in many domains, their decision making is difficult to explain to humans. To address this problem, past work has mainly focused on explaining why an action was chosen in a given state. A different type of explanation that is useful is a counte…
DeepPPMNet forecasts EMS demand and performs causal analyses for policy-making.
problem Accurate prediction and causal analysis of EMS demand for effective policy-making.
method DeepPPMNet, a LSTM-based framework, globally forecasts and analyzes causal relationships using Granger causality.
result DeepPPMNet outperforms traditional methods in forecasting EMS demand and policy-making.
Cost-benefit analysis often assumes accurate estimates, but this study finds significant inaccuracies.
problem Inaccurate cost and benefit estimates in public investments.
method Largest dataset of public investments, statistical analysis of cost overruns and benefit shortfalls.
result Significant inaccuracies in cost and benefit estimates of public investments.
Proposes a new model for predicting future motion of road actors in autonomous vehicles.
problem Forecasting the long-term future motion of road actors for safe autonomous driving.
method Recurrent graph-based attentional approach with interpretable geometric and social relationships.
result Can produce diverse predictions conditioned on hypothetical or 'what-if' scenarios.
Generates realistic time-series data from causal models.
problem Simulate realistic time-series data from causal models.
method Adversarial Causal Tuning (ACT) methodology.
result ACT selects optimal causal models and quantifies goodness-of-fit.
Develops methods for making deep learning models more interpretable by answering counterfactual questions.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models, especially in high-stakes applications.
method Introduces causal interpretability, a framework for building models that are causally interpretable by design.
result Identifies a fundamental tradeoff between causal interpretability and predictive accuracy.
Develops methods to create consistent surrogate models for agent-based simulators.
problem High computational costs and misjudgment of interventions in agent-based models.
method Causal abstractions to learn interventionally consistent surrogate models.
result Surrogates trained for interventional consistency closely mimic the agent-based model's behavior under interventions.
The increasing adoption of machine learning tools has led to calls for accountability via model interpretability. But what does it mean for a machine learning model to be interpretable by humans, and how can this be assessed? We focus on two definitions of interpretability that have been introduced in the machine learn…
Deep learning predicts crop yield integrating genotype and weather data.
problem Improving crop yield prediction for diverse climates.
method Long Short Term Memory - Recurrent Neural Network model with temporal attention mechanism.
result Deep learning models outperform traditional methods for yield prediction.
We propose a reinforcement learning framework for discrete environments in which an agent makes both strategic and tactical decisions. The former manifests itself through the use of value function, while the latter is powered by a tree search planner. These tools complement each other. The planning module performs a lo…
Paper proposes a new approach to GDPR compliance using data protection analytics.
problem Lack of research on data protection risk management and difficulty in GDPR compliance.
method Quantitative approach to data protection risk-based compliance.
result Improves data protection impact assessments by integrating analytics and expert opinions.
CRL approach improves understanding of heterogeneous treatment effects in complex diseases.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in complex diseases.
method Causal rule learning (CRL) workflow consisting of rule discovery, selection, and analysis.
result CRL outperforms other methods in providing interpretable estimates of HTE.
Financial Wind Tunnel generates versatile market data for model testing.
problem Inconsistent market dynamics across different scales and sources.
method Retrieval-augmented diffusion-based simulator integrating macro and micro patterns.
result Enhanced performance and adaptability of downstream models in complex markets.
Estimation of individual treatment effect in observational data is complicated due to the challenges of confounding and selection bias. A useful inferential framework to address this is the counterfactual (potential outcomes) model which takes the hypothetical stance of asking what if an individual had received both tr…
Estimates treatment effects in rare extreme events using EVT.
problem Estimating treatment effects in rare, impactful events like extreme climate events.
method Introduces a novel framework using EVT and multivariate regular variation for consistent treatment effect estimation.
result Developed a consistent estimator for extreme treatment effects with rigorous non-asymptotic analysis.
Proposes a new framework for environmental CVA with robust wrong-way risk.
problem Limited operational implementations of translating environmental scenarios into CVA.
method Three components: hazard rate mapping, tail generators, and KL divergence-based wrong-way risk bound.
result Nature CVAs can vary significantly across different ecosystem generators.
Investor optimizes investment timing with future knowledge, overcoming transaction costs.
problem Optimal investment timing with future peeking, constrained by transaction costs.
method Solves control problem with infinite-dimensional memory using Gaussian Volterra integral equations.
result Explicit solution to optimal investment problem in Bachelier setting.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of operational risk cannot be base…
This paper discusses the financial risks faced by the UK Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and what, if anything, it can do about them. It draws lessons from the regulatory regimes under which other financial institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, operate and asks why pension funds are treated differently. It…
Future grid scenario analysis requires a major departure from conventional power system planning, where only a handful of most critical conditions is typically analyzed. To capture the inter-seasonal variations in renewable generation of a future grid scenario necessitates the use of computationally intensive time-seri…
This paper tackles sequential distribution shifts in representation learning.
problem Learning meaningful representations in a sequence of distribution shifts.
method Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis (ICA) framework for continual causal representation learning.
result The method achieves performance comparable to joint training on multiple offline distributions and shows no benefit from the incoming new distribution on all latent variables.
Bayesian model forecasts hospital resource use during pandemic.
problem Modeling constrained hospital resources during pandemic.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation for an ACED-HMM.
result Mechanistic approach provides competitive probabilistic forecasts.
A Python tool generates synthetic data for cluster analysis from high-level descriptions.
problem Creating synthetic data for cluster analysis is laborious and requires detailed geometric parameters.
method Proposes natural language-based synthetic data generation and implements it in a Python package.
result Makes it easy to set up interpretable and reproducible benchmarks for cluster analysis.
We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem in the case when the arm samples are dependent over time and generated from so-called weak $\cC$-mixing processes. We establish a $\cC-$Mix Improved UCB agorithm and provide both problem-dependent and independent regret analysis in two different scenarios. In the first…
A new algorithm speeds up matrix operations in Neural Networks.
problem Time-consuming matrix operations in Neural Networks.
method An algorithm that increases the degree of parallelism of matrix multiplication.
result The algorithm speeds up several matrix operations in Neural Networks.
This paper formed part of a preliminary research report for a risk consultancy and academic research. Stochastic Programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are represented by a discrete scenario tree and the quality of the solutions obtained i…
Paper tackles complex risk in deep neural networks.
problem Complex risk in deep neural networks.
method Developed new approach for complex risk statistics.
result Derived dual representation for complex risk.
Was it fair that Harry was hired but not Barry? Was it fair that Pam was fired instead of Sam? How can one ensure fairness when an intelligent algorithm takes these decisions instead of a human? How can one ensure that the decisions were taken based on merit and not on protected attributes like race or sex? These are t…
As regulators pay more attentions to losses rather than gains, we are able to derive a new class of risk statistics, named regulator-based risk statistics with scenario analysis in this paper. This new class of risk statistics can be considered as a kind of risk extension of risk statistics introduced by Kou et al. \ci…
Proposes a new uncertain volatility model with worst-case scenario analysis.
problem Modeling and pricing options under uncertain volatility.
method Connection between G-HJB equations and 2BSDEs for option pricing.
result Derives a limit model for worst-case price scenario.
A new approach for green investing in Indian markets considers environmental factors.
problem Identifying and managing climate risk in sustainable investing.
method Combining ESG ratings with modern portfolio theory and scenario analysis.
result The green portfolio performs better than market returns, highlighting the importance of climate risk.
The extragradient method accelerates convergence in complex game dynamics.
problem Complex interactions in game dynamics cause simple methods to diverge, necessitating more sophisticated approaches.
method A polynomial-based analysis to identify three scenarios for accelerated convergence of the momentum extragradient method.
result The momentum extragradient method achieves faster convergence under specific eigenvalue conditions.
Cycloids, hipocycloids and epicycloids have an often forgotten common property: they are homothetic to their evolutes. But what if use convex symmetric polygons as unit balls, can we define evolutes and cycloids which are genuinely discrete? Indeed, we can! We define discrete cycloids as eigenvectors of a discrete doub…
We present a novel methodology to determine the fundamental value of firms in the social-networking sector based on two ingredients: (i) revenues and profits are inherently linked to its user basis through a direct channel that has no equivalent in other sectors; (ii) the growth of the number of users can be calibrated…
FEET protocol evaluates foundation models across three scenarios.
problem Lack of standardized evaluation protocols for foundation models.
method Structured evaluation protocol across three use cases: frozen, few-shot, and fine-tuned embeddings.
result Demonstrates comprehensive assessment of foundation models' effectiveness.
Study optimizes market making in Chinese stock market with stochastic control and scenario analysis.
problem Limited research on market making in Chinese stock market.
method Optimal market making framework with exponential CARA utility function, accounting for market conditions and risks.
result Impact of volatility and stamp duty on market maker's profit and liquidity.