Crowdsourcing has become an effective and popular tool for human-powered computation to label large datasets. Since the workers can be unreliable, it is common in crowdsourcing to assign multiple workers to one task, and to aggregate the labels in order to obtain results of high quality. In this paper, we provide finit…
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Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for human-powered computation on many tasks challenging for computers. In this paper, we provide finite-sample exponential bounds on the error rate (in probability and in expectation) of hyperplane binary labeling rules under the Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. The bounds can be appl…
We revisit the classical decision-theoretic problem of weighted expert voting from a statistical learning perspective. In particular, we examine the consistency (both asymptotic and finitary) of the optimal Nitzan-Paroush weighted majority and related rules. In the case of known expert competence levels, we give sharp …
New voting rules protect against strategic voting by robust statistics.
problem Strategic voting can skew election outcomes.
method Revisit Mallows model, develop robust estimator.
result Efficient estimator achieves nearly optimal robustness.
No fair and strategy-proof automated market maker exists for more than two assets.
problem Designing a fair and strategy-proof automated market maker for multiple assets.
method Analyzing the weighted-product family of aggregation rules and their properties.
result No aggregation rule is both fair and strategy-proof for more than two assets.
A method for learning rankings in non-stationary data streams.
problem Learning preferences in a population that changes over time.
method Generalized Borda algorithm for non-stationary ranking streams.
result Bounds on the minimum number of samples required to output the ground truth.
Novel analysis improves weighted majority vote in multiclass classification.
problem Improving the performance of weighted majority vote in multiclass classification.
method Analyzes expected risk of weighted majority vote, considering prediction correlations and provides a bound for efficient minimization.
result Minimization of the new bound typically does not degrade the test error of the ensemble.
We tackle the issue of classifier combinations when observations have multiple views. Our method jointly learns view-specific weighted majority vote classifiers (i.e. for each view) over a set of base voters, and a second weighted majority vote classifier over the set of these view-specific weighted majority vote class…
One unexamined assumption in foreign ownership regulation is the notion that majority voting rights translate to 'effective control'. This assumption is so deeply entrenched in foreign investments law that possession of majority voting rights can determine the nationality of a corporation and its capacity to engage in …
For classifying time series, a nearest-neighbor approach is widely used in practice with performance often competitive with or better than more elaborate methods such as neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines. We develop theoretical justification for the effectiveness of nearest-neighbor-like clas…
A conformal procedure improves CoT reasoning by aggregating reasoning paths and calibrating abstention rules.
problem Aggregation uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning makes correct answers less reliable.
method Introduces a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that uses weighted score aggregation and abstention rules.
result Achieves higher selective accuracy with abstention, reducing confident-error rate.
Machine Truth Serumcs.LG
Machine learning ensemble improves accuracy by considering minority answers as more likely true.
problem Ensemble methods often rely on majority voting, which can fail when the majority is wrong.
method Proposes Bayesian Truth Serum for classification problems, detecting surprising majority answers.
result Better classification performance achieved by considering minority answers as more likely true.
In many machine learning scenarios, looking for the best classifier that fits a particular dataset can be very costly in terms of time and resources. Moreover, it can require deep knowledge of the specific domain. We propose a new technique which does not require profound expertise in the domain and avoids the commonly…
This paper analyzes voter coalitions in MakerDAO's decentralized governance.
problem Understanding the governance structure and influence of voter coalitions in DAOs.
method Applied clustering algorithm to voting history of MakerDAO to identify voter coalitions.
result The emergence of a dominant voter coalition signals governance centralization in DAOs.
The number of component classifiers chosen for an ensemble greatly impacts the prediction ability. In this paper, we use a geometric framework for a priori determining the ensemble size, which is applicable to most of existing batch and online ensemble classifiers. There are only a limited number of studies on the ense…
We develop ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to classify the transportation mode of trip data collected as part of a large-scale smartphone travel survey in Montreal, Canada. Our proposed ensemble library is composed of a series of CNN models with different hyper-parameter values and CNN architectures. In o…
Boosting improves accuracy by combining weak learners into a voting classifier.
problem Boosting's theoretical performance is sub-optimal, especially for voting classifiers.
method Proposes a randomized boosting algorithm that outputs voting classifiers with a single logarithmic dependency on sample size.
result Randomized boosting achieves a generalization error with a single logarithmic dependency on the sample size.
New bound improves on weighted majority vote risk estimation.
problem Improving risk estimation for weighted majority vote.
method Novel Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality and PAC-Bayes-Bennett inequality.
result New bounds improve on existing methods.
New voting strategies show committee-based consensus can scale efficiently.
problem Ensuring honest committees in committee-based consensus protocols.
method Empirical analysis of simpler voting strategies and their convergence to optimality.
result Simpler voting strategies converge to optimality exponentially quickly, ensuring robustness and efficiency.
RCAM-based ensemble combines binary classifiers using similarity and vote scheme.
problem Improving binary classification accuracy through ensemble methods.
method RCAM-based ensemble combining classifiers using similarity and recurrent consult-vote scheme.
result RCAM-based ensemble outperforms individual classifiers and majority voting.
This paper solves aggregation of Pareto optimal models by using Bayesian priors and weighted averaging.
problem How to rationally aggregate Pareto optimal models while preserving Pareto efficiency.
method Four logical steps: 1) Bayesian models, 2) Prior as preference ranking, 3) Consistent aggregation, 4) Weighted average of priors.
result All rational/consistent aggregation rules follow a generalized hierarchical Bayesian model.
Learning compact and interpretable representations is a very natural task, which has not been solved satisfactorily even for simple binary datasets. In this paper, we review various ways of composing experts for binary data and argue that competitive forms of interaction are best suited to learn low-dimensional represe…
Vote-boosting is a sequential ensemble learning method in which the individual classifiers are built on different weighted versions of the training data. To build a new classifier, the weight of each training instance is determined in terms of the degree of disagreement among the current ensemble predictions for that i…
We propose a voted dual averaging method for online classification problems with explicit regularization. This method employs the update rule of the regularized dual averaging (RDA) method, but only on the subsequence of training examples where a classification error is made. We derive a bound on the number of mistakes…
We consider the -ary classification problem via crowdsourcing, where crowd workers respond to simple binary questions and the answers are aggregated via decision fusion. The workers have a reject option to skip answering a question when they do not have the expertise, or when the confidence of answering that questio…
Prefix consistency improves model reliability by weighting answers based on their reproducibility.
problem Improving the reliability of large language models' reasoning traces.
method Use prefix consistency to weight candidate answers based on their reproducibility during regeneration.
result Prefix consistency is the best correctness predictor, reaching Standard MV plateau accuracy with up to 21x fewer tokens.
A mathematical analysis of the distribution of voting power in the Council of the European Union operating according to the Treaty of Lisbon is presented. We study the effects of Brexit on the voting power of the remaining members, measured by the Penrose--Banzhaf Index. We note that the effects in question are non-mon…
Fast detection of changepoints in linear regression models.
problem Early detection of changes in linear regression models.
method Heavy-weighted CUSUM statistics and composite statistics.
result Effective detection of changepoints regardless of their location.
CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.
problem Challenges in controlling error levels in LLM self-consistency.
method Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm.
result Provable control of false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary stopping rules.
In machine learning, the domain adaptation problem arrives when the test (target) and the train (source) data are generated from different distributions. A key applied issue is thus the design of algorithms able to generalize on a new distribution, for which we have no label information. We focus on learning classifica…
In machine learning, Domain Adaptation (DA) arises when the distribution gen- erating the test (target) data differs from the one generating the learning (source) data. It is well known that DA is an hard task even under strong assumptions, among which the covariate-shift where the source and target distributions diver…
New inequality for ternary variables improves on existing measures.
problem Analyzing excess losses and weighted majority votes with ternary random variables.
method Developed a split-kl inequality and its PAC-Bayes extension.
result Outperforms existing inequalities in certain regimes.
Design rule check is a critical step in the physical design of integrated circuits to ensure manufacturability. However, it can be done only after a time-consuming detailed routing procedure, which adds drastically to the time of design iterations. With advanced technology nodes, the outcomes of global routing and deta…
We tackle the PAC-Bayesian Domain Adaptation (DA) problem. This arrives when one desires to learn, from a source distribution, a good weighted majority vote (over a set of classifiers) on a different target distribution. In this context, the disagreement between classifiers is known crucial to control. In non-DA superv…
New method improves LLM judge accuracy by accounting for dependencies in aggregated binary labels.
problem Classical label aggregation methods fail to account for dependencies among LLM judges, leading to miscalibrated predictions.
method Dependence-aware models based on Ising graphical models and latent factors.
result The proposed method outperforms classical methods on real-world datasets, reducing excess risk.
This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models expressed as a weighted majority vote that is based on the first and second stat…
Machine learning selects the best prediction rules from noisy data.
problem Selection under uncertainty in machine learning.
method Statistical tools and inequalities to control noise in empirical estimates.
result Theoretical guarantees on selection outcomes under uncertainty.
Proposes a new k-NN algorithm to improve classification accuracy by removing noise and pseudo-neighbours.
problem Noise and pseudo-neighbours in large-scale databases affect k-NN performance.
method Introduces a weighted mutual k-Nearest Neighbour algorithm to detect and remove noise, and minimize distant neighbours' influence.
result The proposed algorithm provides comparative better results compared to standard k-NN.
Majority bit estimation in noisy random recursive DAGs.
problem Estimating the majority bit in a noisy random recursive DAG.
method Majority rule among nodes, with bit flipping and noisy channel.
result Identification of the threshold for at which majority rule yields errors.
Ensemble learning is a powerful approach to construct a strong learner from multiple base learners. The most popular way to aggregate an ensemble of classifiers is majority voting, which assigns a sample to the class that most base classifiers vote for. However, improved performance can be obtained by assigning weights…
Two local learning rules are investigated to avoid weight transport in neural networks.
problem Local learning rules that avoid weight transport are unstable and require tuning.
method Investigated two non-local learning rules and a more robust local rule.
result Non-local learning rules match state-of-the-art performance and operate effectively in noisy updates.
Delegated votes in Uniswap DAO favor parties with less self-owned votes and a16z-affiliated entities.
problem Incentives for vote delegation in decentralized governance systems.
method Analysis of Uniswap governance DAO using vote delegation data.
result Vote delegation patterns suggest window-dressing around decentralization and merit-based delegation.
LoCoV reduces portfolio optimization errors from sample covariance matrices.
problem Large errors in sample covariance matrix for optimal portfolio weights.
method LoCoV (low dimension covariance voting) algorithm to reduce these errors.
result LoCoV outperforms classical methods in portfolio optimization experiments.
Study improves fair opinion aggregation by balancing voter attributes.
problem Aggregation of opinions can be biased by voter attributes.
method Combines majority voting and D&S model with fairness options.
result Effective combination of Soft D&S and fairness options for different data types.
Thermodynamic theory of voting and EU electionscond-mat.stat-mech
A thermodynamic theory explains EU election vote distributions.
problem Describing EU election vote distributions.
method Tracing parallels between system energies of coupled nonlinear oscillators and party vote fractions.
result The Rayleigh-Jeans (RJ) theory well depicts EU vote results and candidate vote dispersion.
Online voting is an emerging feature in social networks, in which users can express their attitudes toward various issues and show their unique interest. Online voting imposes new challenges on recommendation, because the propagation of votings heavily depends on the structure of social networks as well as the content …
We present a Bayesian formulation of weighted stochastic block models that can be used to infer the large-scale modular structure of weighted networks, including their hierarchical organization. Our method is nonparametric, and thus does not require the prior knowledge of the number of groups or other dimensions of the…
New algorithm reduces communication costs in distributed deep learning.
problem High communication costs in distributed deep learning.
method Sparse-SignSGD with Majority Vote (S3GD-MV).
result Significantly reduces communication costs while maintaining accuracy.