A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model compares altruism and individualism in wealth dynamics.
Reproductive success and survival are influenced by wealth in human populations. Wealth is transmitted to offsprings and strategies of transmission vary over time and among populations, the main variation being how equally wealth is transmitted to children. Here we propose a model where we simulate both the dynamics of…
New method for portfolio management learns from past wealth evolution.
Study on wealth and trading in PoS blockchain.
We present and analyze a model for the evolution of the wealth distribution within a heterogeneous economic environment. The model considers a system of rational agents interacting in a game theoretical framework, through fairly general assumptions on the cost function. This evolution drives the dynamic of the agents i…
Simple agent based exchange models are a commonplace in the study of wealth distribution of artificial societies. Generally, each agent is characterized by its wealth and by a risk-aversion factor, and random exchanges between agents allow for a redistribution of the wealth. However, the detailed influence of the amoun…
We develop a model for the evolution of wealth in a non-conservative economic environment, extending a theory developed earlier by the authors. The model considers a system of rational agents interacting in a game theoretical framework. This evolution drives the dynamic of the agents in both wealth and economic configu…
An important class of economic models involve agents whose wealth changes due to transactions with other agents. Several authors have pointed out an analogy with kinetic theory, which describes molecules whose momentum and energy changes due to interactions with other molecules. We pursue this analogy and derive a Bolt…
Based on the stochastic model proposed by Patriarca-Kaski-Chakraborti that describes the exchange of wealth between economic agents, we analyze the evolution of the corresponding economies under the assumption of a Gaussian background, modeling the exchange parameter . We demonstrate, that within Gaussian noise,…
An equation for the evolution of the distribution of wealth in a population of economic agents making binary transactions with a constant total amount of "money" has recently been proposed by one of us (RLR). This equation takes the form of an iterated nonlinear map of the distribution of wealth. The equilibrium distri…
We study an agent-based model of evolution of wealth distribution in a macro-economic system. The evolution is driven by multiplicative stochastic fluctuations governed by the law of proportionate growth and interactions between agents. We are mainly interested in interactions increasing wealth inequality that is in a …
Unbiased wealth exchanges always lead to inequality.
We investigate the wealth evolution in a system of agents that exchange wealth through a disordered network in presence of an additive stochastic Gaussian noise. We show that the resulting wealth distribution is shaped by the degree distribution of the underlying network and in particular we verify that scale free netw…
We study a stochastic multiplicative system composed of finite asynchronous elements to describe the wealth evolution in financial markets. We find that the wealth fluctuations or returns of this system can be described by a walk with correlated step sizes obeying truncated Levy-like distribution, and the cross-correla…
We find the explicit expression for the equilibrium wealth distribution of the Directed Random Market process, recently introduced by Martínez-Martínez and López-Ruiz, which turns out to be a Gamma distribution with shape parameter . We also prove the convergence of the discrete-time process describing the…
This study is a detailed analysis of Speculation Game, a minimal agent-based model of financial markets, in which the round-trip trading and the dynamic wealth evolution with variable trading volumes are implemented. Instead of herding behavior, we find that the emergence of volatility clustering can be induced by the …
Study chaotic dynamics in social stratification models leading to thermalization and turbulence.
The accumulation of individual fitness or wealth is modelled as a population game in which pairs of individuals are recurrently and randomly matched to play a game over a resource. In addition, all individuals have random access to a constant background resource, and their fitness or wealth depreciates over time. For b…
We present a model in which we investigate the structure and evolution of a random network that connects agents capable of exchanging wealth. Economic interactions between neighbors can occur only if the difference between their wealth is less than a threshold value that defines the width of the economic classes. If th…
We briefly review results on nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describe the evolution of wealth in a simple agents market. The mathematical structure of the underlying kinetic equations allows to use well-known techniques of wide use in kinetic theory of rarefied gases to obtain information on the proc…
We introduce and discuss a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describes the influence of knowledge in the evolution of wealth in a system of agents which interact through the binary trades introduced in Cordier, Pareschi, Toscani, J. Stat. Phys. 2005. The trades, which include both saving propensity and…
We present a stochastic, agent-based, binary-transaction Asset-Exchange Model (AEM) for wealth distribution that allows for agents with negative wealth. This model retains certain features of prior AEMs such as redistribution and wealth-attained advantage, but it also allows for shifts as well as scalings of the agent …
We prove that Pareto theory of circulation of elites results from our wealth evolution model, Kelly criterion for optimal betting and Keynes' observation of "animal spirits" that drive the economy and cause that human financial decisions are prone to excess risk-taking.
We consider models of financial markets in which all parties involved find incentives to participate. Strategies are evaluated directly by their virtual wealths. By tuning the price sensitivity and market impact, a phase diagram with several attractor behaviors resembling those of real markets emerge, reflecting the ro…
Punctuated Equilibrium (PE) states that after long periods of evolutionary quiescence, species evolution can take place in short time intervals, where sudden differentiation makes new species emerge and some species extinct. In this paper, we introduce and study the effect of punctuated equilibrium on two different ass…
The possibility to analyze everyday monetary transactions is limited by the scarcity of available data, as this kind of information is usually considered highly sensitive. Present econophysics models are usually employed on presumed random networks of interacting agents, and only macroscopic properties (e.g. the result…
The contradiction between physical and economical sciences concerning the growth of the production/consumption mechanism is analyzed. It is then shown that if one wishes to keep the security level stable or to enhance it in a growing economy the cost of security grows faster than the gross wealth. The result is a typic…
The paper analyzes how investors' wealth can decline collectively under partial information.
We introduce and discuss a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describes the evolution of wealth in a pure gambling process, where the entire sum of wealths of two agents is up for gambling, and randomly shared between the agents. For this equation the analytical form of the steady states is found for va…
We study the Immediate Exchange model, recently introduced by Heinsalu and Patriarca [Eur. Phys. J. B 87: 170 (2014)], who showed by simulations that the wealth distribution in this model converges to a Gamma distribution with shape parameter . Here we justify this conclusion analytically, in the infinite-population…
The numeraire portfolio in a financial market is the unique positive wealth process that makes all other nonnegative wealth processes, when deflated by it, supermartingales. The numeraire portfolio depends on market characteristics, which include: (a) the information flow available to acting agents, given by a filtrati…
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustai…
This paper studies long term investing by an investor that maximizes either expected utility from terminal wealth or from consumption. We introduce the concepts of a generalized stochastic discount factor (SDF) and of the minimum price to attain target payouts. The paper finds that the dynamics of the SDF needs to be c…
A deterministic system of interacting agents is considered as a model for economic dynamics. The dynamics of the system is described by a coupled map lattice with near neighbor interactions. The evolution of each agent results from the competition between two factors: the agent's own tendency to grow and the environmen…
We consider the Brownian market model and the problem of expected utility maximization of terminal wealth. We, specifically, examine the problem of maximizing the utility of terminal wealth under the presence of transaction costs of a fund/agent investing in futures markets. We offer some preliminary remarks about stat…
A step by step procedure to derive analytically the exact dynamical evolution equations of the probability density functions (PDF) of well known kinetic wealth exchange economic models is shown. This technique gives a dynamical insight into the evolution of the PDF, e.g., allowing the calculation of its relaxation time…
A thermodynamic theory explains EU election vote distributions.
Exponential distribution is ubiquitous in the framework of multi-agent systems. Usually, it appears as an equilibrium state in the asymptotic time evolution of statistical systems. It has been explained from very different perspectives. In statistical physics, it is obtained from the principle of maximum entropy. In th…
In this paper we test computationally the performance of CAPM in an evolutionary setting. In particular we study the stability of wealth distribution in a financial market where some traders invest as prescribed by CAPM and others behave according to different portfolio rules. Our study is motivated by recent analytica…
Study optimal retirement time and consumption with habitual persistence.
A new method for portfolio allocation in continuous-time markets.
Study measures inequality in social-economic systems using Fokker-Planck equations and Lotka-Volterra dynamics.
The dynamics of generalized Lotka-Volterra systems is studied by theoretical techniques and computer simulations. These systems describe the time evolution of the wealth distribution of individuals in a society, as well as of the market values of firms in the stock market. The individual wealths or market values are gi…
We model a closed economic system with interactions that generates the features of empirical wealth distribution across all wealth brackets, namely a Gibbsian trend in the lower and middle wealth range and a Pareto trend in the higher range, by simply limiting the an agents' interaction to only agents with nearly the s…
Combines absolute and relative wealth in portfolio optimization with power utility functions.
Study explores optimal portfolio control in financial markets with transaction costs.
We analyze wealth condensation for a wide class of stochastic economy models on the basis of the economic analog of thermodynamic potentials, termed transfer potentials. The economy model is based on three common transfers modes of wealth: random transfer, profit proportional to wealth and motivation of poor agents to …
New proof shows local wealth condensation in economic models with biases.