arXiv research

Weak correlations explain linear dynamics in deep learning models.

Weak diffusion priors can still perform well in inverse problems.

Proposes a constrained labeling method for weakly supervised learning.

Since manually labeling training data is slow and expensive, recent industrial and scientific research efforts have turned to weaker or noisier forms of supervision sources. However, existing weak supervision approaches fail to model multi-resolution sources for sequential data, like video, that can assign labels to in…

We study the time dependent cross correlations of stock returns, i.e. we measure the correlation as the function of the time shift between pairs of stock return time series using tick-by-tick data. We find a weak but significant effect showing that in many cases the maximum correlation is at nonzero time shift indicati…

Unified framework for policy learning using weak supervision.

We introduce a mean-reverting SDE whose solution is naturally defined on the space of correlation matrices. This SDE can be seen as an extension of the well-known Wright-Fisher diffusion. We provide conditions that ensure weak and strong uniqueness of the SDE, and describe its ergodic limit. We also shed light on a use…

Study on W2S generalization with spurious correlations, proposing remedies.

We analyze the Standard & Poor's 500 stock market index from the last 22 years. The probability density function of price returns exhibits two well-distinguished regimes with self-similar structure: the first one displays strong super-diffusion together with short-time correlations, and the second one corresponds to we…

We probe the character of knotting in open, confined polymers, assigning knot types to open curves by identifying their projections as virtual knots. In this sense, virtual knots are transitional, lying in between classical knot types, which are useful to classify the ambiguous nature of knotting in open curves. Modell…

CAKD framework optimizes knowledge transfer by focusing on influential components of distillation.

We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.

We analyze correlations among stock returns via a series of widely adopted parameters which we refer to as explanatory variables. We subsequently exploit the results to propose a long only quantitative adaptive technique to construct a profitable portfolio of assets which exhibits minor drawdowns and higher recoveries …

WeLa-VAE learns interpretable disentangled representations with weak supervision.

We consider the problem of providing nonparametric confidence guarantees for undirected graphs under weak assumptions. In particular, we do not assume sparsity, incoherence or Normality. We allow the dimension $D$ to increase with the sample size $n$. First, we prove lower bounds that show that if we want accurate infe…

New model shows weak teachers can help strong students learn even with imperfect labels.

To investigate the universal structure of interactions in financial dynamics, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of price returns of the Chinese stock market, in comparison with those of the American and Indian stock markets. As an important emerging market, the Chinese market exhibits much stronger correlations…

We examine several recently suggested methods for the detection of long-range correlations in data series based on similar ideas as the well-established Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). In particular, we present a detailed comparison between the regular DFA and two recently suggested methods: the Centered Moving A…

Study shows disentanglement models learn correlations from data, impacting fairness.

Study improves weak error estimates for rough volatility models.

The weak variance-alpha-gamma process is a multivariate Lévy process constructed by weakly subordinating Brownian motion, possibly with correlated components with an alpha-gamma subordinator. It generalises the variance-alpha-gamma process of Semeraro constructed by traditional subordination. We compare three calibrati…

Study on error rates for approximating rough volatility models.

New tuning rules for Metropolis algorithms derived from Bayesian large-sample asymptotics.

In the presence of weak overall correlation, it may be useful to investigate if the correlation is significantly and substantially more pronounced over a subpopulation. Two different testing procedures are compared. Both are based on the rankings of the values of two variables from a data set with a large number n of o…

Study shows superdiffusive behavior in geodesic flows on curved surfaces.

During times of extreme market turmoil, it is acknowledged that there is a tendency towards "flight to safety". A strong (weak) safe haven is defined as an asset that has a significant positive (negative) return in periods where another asset is in distress, while hedge has to be negatively correlated (uncorrelated) on…

This paper treats the problem of screening for variables with high correlations in high dimensional data in which there can be many fewer samples than variables. We focus on threshold-based correlation screening methods for three related applications: screening for variables with large correlations within a single trea…

We obtain an explicit formula for the bilateral counterparty valuation adjustment of a credit default swaps portfolio referencing an asymptotically large number of entities. We perform the analysis under a doubly stochastic intensity framework, allowing for default correlation through a common jump process. The key ins…

We investigate the properties of correlation based networks originating from economic complex systems, such as the network of stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The weaker links (low correlation) of the system are found to contribute to the overall connectivity of the network significantly more than t…

We analyze the fluctuation of the loss from default around its large portfolio limit in a class of reduced-form models of correlated firm-by-firm default timing. We prove a weak convergence result for the fluctuation process and use it for developing a conditionally Gaussian approximation to the loss distribution. Nume…

As machine learning models continue to increase in complexity, collecting large hand-labeled training sets has become one of the biggest roadblocks in practice. Instead, weaker forms of supervision that provide noisier but cheaper labels are often used. However, these weak supervision sources have diverse and unknown a…

In high-dimensional data, structured noise caused by observed and unobserved factors affecting multiple target variables simultaneously, imposes a serious challenge for modeling, by masking the often weak signal. Therefore, (1) explaining away the structured noise in multiple-output regression is of paramount importanc…

In the last few years, many different performance measures have been introduced to overcome the weakness of the most natural metric, the Accuracy. Among them, Matthews Correlation Coefficient has recently gained popularity among researchers not only in machine learning but also in several application fields such as bio…

Develops a new cluster validity index to find multiple optimal cluster numbers.

Model simulates correlation emergence in two coupled limit order books.

This short note suggests a heuristic method for detecting the dependence of random time series that can be used in the case when this dependence is relatively weak and such that the traditional methods are not effective. The method requires to compare some special functionals on the sample characteristic functions with…

How can graph theory be applied to investing in the stock market? The answer may help investors realize the true risks of their investments, help prevent recessions like that of 2008, and increase financial literacy amongst students. Using several original Python programs, we take a correlation matrix with correlations…

FABLE incorporates instance features into PWS label models for improved performance.

Study shows how a strong model can learn a task's feature while retaining other capabilities.

Random matrix theory is used to assess the significance of weak correlations and is well established for Gaussian statistics. However, many complex systems, with stock markets as a prominent example, exhibit statistics with power-law tails, that can be modelled with Levy stable distributions. We review comprehensively …

Study reveals efficient recovery of multi-modal signals via Bayesian methods and sequential learning.

Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is widely used for multimodal data analysis and, more recently, for discriminative tasks such as multi-view learning; however, it makes no use of class labels. Recent CCA methods have started to address this weakness but are limited in that they do not simultaneously optimize the CC…

A persistent challenge in practical classification tasks is that labeled training sets are not always available. In particle physics, this challenge is surmounted by the use of simulations. These simulations accurately reproduce most features of data, but cannot be trusted to capture all of the complex correlations exp…

In phase retrieval we want to recover an unknown signal $\boldsymbol x\in\mathbb C^d$ from $n$ quadratic measurements of the form $y_i = |\langle{\boldsymbol a}_i,{\boldsymbol x}\rangle|^2+w_i$ where $\boldsymbol a_i\in \mathbb C^d$ are known sensing vectors and $w_i$ is measurement noise. We ask the following weak rec…

New method handles correlated responses and interaction effects in multi-response regression.

We consider support recovery in the quadratic logistic regression setting - where the target depends on both p linear terms $x_i$ and up to $p^2$ quadratic terms $x_i x_j$. Quadratic terms enable prediction/modeling of higher-order effects between features and the target, but when incorporated naively may involve solvi…

Optimal spectral estimators and AMP combine for efficient weak recovery in orthogonally invariant GLMs.

In this study we consider relations between companies in Poland taking into account common branches they belong to. It is clear that companies belonging to the same branch compete for similar customers, so the market induces correlations between them. On the other hand two branches can be related by companies acting in…