A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Analyzed a generalized voter model with power-law herding intensity, revealing anomalous diffusion and long-range memory.
Optimal number of voters for a voting ensemble can be estimated from the distribution of classifier errors.
This paper analyzes voter coalitions in MakerDAO's decentralized governance.
The paper proposes methods to identify and sample from mixtures of Mallows models for top-k rankings.
Study improves fair opinion aggregation by balancing voter attributes.
In this paper we propose a boosting based multiview learning algorithm, referred to as PB-MVBoost, which iteratively learns i) weights over view-specific voters capturing view-specific information; and ii) weights over views by optimizing a PAC-Bayes multiview C-Bound that takes into account the accuracy of view-specif…
New voting rules protect against strategic voting by robust statistics.
We present a new modeling technique for solving the problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level associations are inferred from labeled data available only at the aggregate level. We model aggregate count data as arising from the Poisson binomial, the distribution of the sum of independent but not identic…
We consider a problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level covariates are known, but labeled data is available only at the aggregate level. The intended application is modeling voter preferences in elections. In Rosenman and Viswanathan (2018), we proposed modeling individual voter probabilities via a log…
New bounds on majority voting's accuracy for multi-class classification problems.
We propose a new analytical method to study stochastic, binary-state models on complex networks. Moving beyond the usual mean-field theories, this alternative approach is based on the introduction of an annealed approximation for uncorrelated networks, allowing to deal with the network structure as parametric heterogen…
Bayesian nonparametric models for data with heterogeneous particles.
In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. I…
Improved race prediction model outperforms existing methods.
In the past few years, a lot of attention has been devoted to multimedia indexing by fusing multimodal informations. Two kinds of fusion schemes are generally considered: The early fusion and the late fusion. We focus on late classifier fusion, where one combines the scores of each modality at the decision level. To ta…
Proposes a Latent Block Model for analyzing missing data.
This paper examines how voter concentration affects election outcomes in district-based systems.
Study shows social reinforcement learning can lead to persistent but metastable polarization.
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
A lot of attention has been devoted to multimedia indexing over the past few years. In the literature, we often consider two kinds of fusion schemes: The early fusion and the late fusion. In this paper we focus on late classifier fusion, where one combines the scores of each modality at the decision level. To tackle th…
Among the central tenets of globalization is free migration of labor. Although much has been written about its benefits, little is known about the limitations of globalization, including how immigration affects the anti-globalist sentiment. Analyzing polls data, we find that over the last three years in a group of EU c…
cMCA uses contrastive learning to identify latent subgroups in political party data.
We propose an extensive analysis of the behavior of majority votes in binary classification. In particular, we introduce a risk bound for majority votes, called the C-bound, that takes into account the average quality of the voters and their average disagreement. We also propose an extensive PAC-Bayesian analysis that …
A new stochastic method handles ensemble creation with cost constraints.
We study the issue of PAC-Bayesian domain adaptation: We want to learn, from a source domain, a majority vote model dedicated to a target one. Our theoretical contribution brings a new perspective by deriving an upper-bound on the target risk where the distributions' divergence---expressed as a ratio---controls the tra…
We develop new algorithms for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, combining recent developments in transfer learning for neural networks with insights from the causal inference literature. By taking advantage of transfer learning, we are able to efficiently use different data sources that are related to the sam…
In the Network Inference problem, one seeks to recover the edges of an unknown graph from the observations of cascades propagating over this graph. In this paper, we approach this problem from the sparse recovery perspective. We introduce a general model of cascades, including the voter model and the independent cascad…
Improved surname geocoding and name supplements enhance race imputation accuracy.
We tackle the issue of classifier combinations when observations have multiple views. Our method jointly learns view-specific weighted majority vote classifiers (i.e. for each view) over a set of base voters, and a second weighted majority vote classifier over the set of these view-specific weighted majority vote class…
Social media sites are becoming a key factor in politics. These platforms are easy to manipulate for the purpose of distorting information space to confuse and distract voters. Past works to identify disruptive patterns are mostly focused on analyzing the content of tweets. In this study, we jointly embed the informati…
Bitcoins have emerged as a possible competitor to usual currencies, but other crypto-currencies have likewise appeared as competitors to the Bitcoin currency. The expanding market of crypto-currencies now involves capital equivalent to US Dollars, providing academia with an unusual opportunity to study the em…
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the value of a stock. The model presented in this paper is suited for pricing of options…
Research examines impact of Brexit on GBP/EUR exchange rate.
New algorithms minimize PAC-Bayesian C-Bound for majority voting, leading to scalable and accurate predictors.
Practitioners in medicine, business, political science, and other fields are increasingly aware that decisions should be personalized to each patient, customer, or voter. A given treatment (e.g. a drug or advertisement) should be administered only to those who will respond most positively, and certainly not to those wh…
We provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different, but related, target distribution. Firstly, we propose an improvement of the previous approach we proposed in Germain et al. (2013), …
Social media systems rely on user feedback and rating mechanisms for personalization, ranking, and content filtering. However, when users evaluate content contributed by fellow users (e.g., by liking a post or voting on a comment), these evaluations create complex social feedback effects. This paper investigates how ra…
New voting strategies show committee-based consensus can scale efficiently.
Blockchain fan tokens boost sports fan engagement by 50%.
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber bundle model, the voter model, and models of epidemic spreading are recovered as special cases. To uni…
Paper proposes a uniqueness Shapley measure to compare variable importance.
New method interprets ranked data on permutahedron graph.
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.
The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.
Gauge Flow Models use a learnable Gauge Field in Generative Flow Models.
The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.
Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.