Develops diffusion models for time-varying correlation on the circle.
problem Time-varying correlation modeling on the circle.
method Stochastic processes on the unit circle, specifically Brownian motion and von Mises diffusion.
result Derives an accurate analytical approximation to the transition density of the von Mises diffusion.
We solve the mean parametrization of von Mises-Fisher distribution.
problem No closed-form normalization function for mean parameters exists.
method Derived a second-order ODE for mean normalizer and provided approximations.
result Rapid evaluation of densities and natural parameters in terms of mean parameters.
We present a derivation of the Kullback Leibler (KL)-Divergence (also known as Relative Entropy) for the von Mises Fisher (VMF) Distribution in d-dimensions.
Sparse prototypes improve clustering of high-dimensional directional data.
problem Clustering high-dimensional directional data like texts.
method Estimate a von Mises mixture using l1 penalized likelihood and EM algorithm.
result Sparse prototypes enhance interpretability and clustering performance.
Bagging is a device intended for reducing the prediction error of learning algorithms. In its simplest form, bagging draws bootstrap samples from the training sample, applies the learning algorithm to each bootstrap sample, and then averages the resulting prediction rules. We extend the definition of bagging from stati…
A new method improves uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference.
problem Poor uncertainty quantification in traditional Gibbs posteriors.
method Sequential Gibbs posteriors with a Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Sequential Gibbs posteriors provide better frequentist coverage.
Bayesian UQ matches frequentist UQ for adaptively collected data.
problem Uncertainty quantification for adaptive data collection.
method Extends Bernstein-von Mises theorem to adaptively collected data.
result Bayesian UQ asymptotically matches Wald-type frequentist UQ.
Paper shows DMS as an EM algorithm with improved convergence.
problem Improving the convergence of DMS algorithm.
method Shows DMS as a generalized EM algorithm and provides new proofs.
result Demonstrates global convergence and linear convergence of DMS.
New method generates molecular conformations efficiently.
problem Generating accurate molecular conformations efficiently.
method Variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions.
result VonMisesNet generates conformations orders of magnitude faster than existing methods.
A new method uses diffusion models to simulate financial markets accurately.
problem Generating realistic synthetic financial market data.
method Diffusion model approach with efficient numerical integration.
result Synthetic data closely matches observed market data in key aspects.
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
Mixture modelling involves explaining some observed evidence using a combination of probability distributions. The crux of the problem is the inference of an optimal number of mixture components and their corresponding parameters. This paper discusses unsupervised learning of mixture models using the Bayesian Minimum M…
Introduces Star-Shaped DDPMs for non-Gaussian distributions.
problem Difficulties in defining DDPMs for non-Gaussian distributions.
method Star-shaped diffusion process, duality with specific Markovian diffusions, efficient algorithms.
result SS-DDPMs can model distributions like Beta, von Mises-Fisher, Dirichlet, Wishart.
A new method estimates the number of clusters on spherical data.
problem Estimating the number of clusters in spherical data.
method Spherical X-means (SX-means) method assuming von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result Shows the performance of SX-means in estimating the number of clusters.
A new probabilistic approach improves deep metric learning by considering image uncertainties and class-specific variances.
problem Proxy-based deep metric learning struggles with image uncertainties and class-specific structures.
method Introduces non-isotropic probabilistic proxy-based deep metric learning using directional von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result Improves generalization performance and competitive on standard benchmarks.
New autoencoder improves latent space learning by optimizing sliced Gromov-Wasserstein discrepancies.
problem Improving inner discrepancy between prior and posterior distributions in autoencoders.
method Proposed spherical sliced fused Gromov Wasserstein (SSFG) and variants (MSSFG, PSSFG) to find important directions.
result New autoencoders achieve favorable performance in latent manifold learning, image generation, and reconstruction.
Bayesian nonparametric models get better posterior estimates via SPDE methods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions in nonparametric Bayesian models.
method Extending diffusion methods to SPDEs on Hilbert spaces for posterior contraction and Laplace approximation.
result Derivation of posterior contraction rates and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises results.
This work develops rigorous theoretical basis for the fact that deep Bayesian neural network (BNN) is an effective tool for high-dimensional variable selection with rigorous uncertainty quantification. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric theorems to show that a properly configured deep BNN (1) learns the variable im…
A scalable method for accurate inference of low-dimensional parameters in high-dimensional linear regression.
problem Statistical inference for low-dimensional parameters in high-dimensional linear regression models.
method Mean-field variational Bayes approach, focusing on nuisance parameters and conditional distributions.
result Competitive numerical performance and theoretical guarantees for estimation and uncertainty quantification.
A drone-based MOT algorithm tracks vehicles using neural network detections and TPMBM filter.
problem Tracking multiple vehicles from drone-mounted cameras.
method Neural network for object detection, TPMBM filter for trajectory estimation, von-Mises Fisher distribution for DOA.
result TPMBM filter optimally estimates vehicle trajectories.
This paper proposes an approach to the joint modeling of the short-time Fourier transform magnitude and phase spectrograms with a deep generative model. We assume that the magnitude follows a Gaussian distribution and the phase follows a von Mises distribution. To improve the consistency of the phase values in the time…
A new distance metric for vMF distributions simplifies spherical data analysis.
problem Intractability of normalization constants and lack of suitable geometric metrics for comparing vMF distributions.
method Proposes a Wasserstein-like distance that decomposes vMF distribution discrepancies into angular and concentration components.
result The proposed distance metric induces a latent geometric structure on the space of non-degenerate vMF distributions.
Although stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a driving force behind the recent success of deep learning, our understanding of its dynamics in a high-dimensional parameter space is limited. In recent years, some researchers have used the stochasticity of minibatch gradients, or the signal-to-noise ratio, to better char…
The modelling of empirically observed data is commonly done using mixtures of probability distributions. In order to model angular data, directional probability distributions such as the bivariate von Mises (BVM) is typically used. The critical task involved in mixture modelling is to determine the optimal number of co…
Solves parameter non-identifiability in Bayesian LTI system identification.
problem Parameter non-identifiability in standard Bayesian approaches for LTI system identification.
method Embedding canonical forms of LTI systems within the Bayesian framework.
result Unlocking the use of meaningful priors and robust uncertainty estimates.
Bayesian model predicts circular data with fast Gibbs sampling.
problem Predicting circular data in scientific fields.
method Expressive von Mises quasi-processes with Stratonovich augmentation for posterior inference.
result Fast Gibbs sampling for posterior inference.
Researchers identify valid auxiliary functions for extreme value distributions and their max-domains of attraction.
problem Characterize valid auxiliary functions for extreme value distributions and their max-domains of attraction.
method Introduced 'universal' auxiliary functions valid for both VR and vMR representations, identified sets of valid auxiliary functions, and proposed a method for finding appropriate auxiliary functions.
result Characterized valid auxiliary functions for both VR and vMR representations for the entire MDA distribution families.
Improves Laplace approximation for Bayesian inference on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Inaccurate Gaussian approximations for complex targets and finite-data posteriors.
method Develops alternative variants of the Laplace approximation using a Riemannian metric.
result Exact approximations at the limit of infinite data, improving practical performance.
Optimized α-posteriors reduce KL divergence from true posterior in parametric misspecification.
problem Reduction of KL divergence from true posterior in parametric model misspecification.
method Derivation of Bernstein-von Mises theorem and optimization of α-posteriors. result Optimized α-posteriors minimize KL divergence from true posterior, especially in severe misspecification. Proposes vMF distribution for skewed elliptical distributions.
problem Skewed distributions not adequately modeled by symmetric distributions.
method Introduces von-Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution to represent skewed elliptical distributions.
result vMF distribution provides an explicit and simple probability representation of skewed elliptical distributions.
Circular variables arise in a multitude of data-modelling contexts ranging from robotics to the social sciences, but they have been largely overlooked by the machine learning community. This paper partially redresses this imbalance by extending some standard probabilistic modelling tools to the circular domain. First w…
A hybrid model combines diffusion and neural operator methods for stress prediction in hyperelastic materials.
problem Challenges in predicting stress fields in hyperelastic materials with complex microstructures.
method A hybrid surrogate framework combining a conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (cDDPM) and a modified DeepONet.
result The hybrid model consistently outperforms traditional methods by one to two orders of magnitude.
The paper improves interpolation in generative models by using specific base distributions.
problem Unexpected side effects in linear interpolations of normalizing flows.
method Enforces a specific manifold using Dirichlet and von Mises-Fisher base distributions.
result Superior performance in terms of bits per dimension, FID, and KID scores for interpolation.
In this article we will propose a completely new point of view for solving one of the most important paradoxes concerning game theory. The solution develop shifts the focus from the result to the strategy s ability to operate in a cognitive way by exploiting useful information about the system. In order to determine fr…
Proposes a new model to better handle correlation risk in credit risk calculations.
problem Empirical evidence shows correlation risk is significant in credit risk models.
method Introduces a stochastic correlation extension of the Vasicek model using circular diffusion.
result Demonstrates how correlation volatility and persistence affect joint default and survival probabilities.
A new method for speaker recognition on hyperspheres improves on PLDA's limitations.
problem Improving speaker recognition on hyperspheres with PLDA's limitations.
method Probabilistic Spherical Discriminant Analysis (PSDA) using Von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result PSDA scores are closed-form and can handle various trials, improving over PLDA.
Generative models on spheres improve discrete sequence sampling.
problem Learning generative models for discrete sequences in continuous space.
method Work on sphere Sd−1, using von Mises-Fisher distribution and radial symmetry. result Improved results on Sudoku and language modeling with vMF path.
Bayesian method for estimating ATE with robustness to model misspecification.
problem Estimating average treatment effects under unconfoundedness.
method Double robust Bayesian inference using adjusted prior and posterior distributions.
result Bayesian credible sets form asymptotically exact confidence intervals.
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number n of individual data points, also known as tall datasets. In scenarios where data are assumed independent, various…
We propose a family of multivariate Gaussian process models for correlated outputs, based on assuming that the likelihood function takes the generic form of the multivariate exponential family distribution (EFD). We denote this model as a multivariate generalized Gaussian process model, and derive Taylor and Laplace al…
By providing a simple and efficient way of computing low-variance gradients of continuous random variables, the reparameterization trick has become the technique of choice for training a variety of latent variable models. However, it is not applicable to a number of important continuous distributions. We introduce an a…
New summary measures reveal geometric structure in weighted measures on manifolds.
problem Lack of geometric information in standard weight-only summaries.
method Heat-kernel entropy profiles, tracking nonuniformity across scales.
result Geometric effective sample size discounts nearby or duplicate particles.
Bayesian model selection via mean-field variational approximation improves efficiency and accuracy.
problem Bayesian model selection under model mis-specification and latent variables.
method Mean-field variational approximation with non-asymptotic properties and geometric convergence.
result ELBO tends to select models closer to the true model than BIC as sample size increases.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
New method resolves causal heterogeneity by defining a resolution profile.
problem Causal subgroup analyses often oversimplify heterogeneity into a small number of groups.
method Introduces a resolution profile as a functional of the causal feature law, using Bayesian-bootstrap inference.
result Shows that the resolution profile is a continuous path with discontinuities at knots, providing integer-valued subgroup numbers.
A quantum state generation method that respects physical constraints.
problem Generating quantum states with complex-valued Hermitian, positive semi-definite, and trace one properties.
method Mirror diffusion model with von Neumann entropy to enforce structural constraints.
result Demonstrated effective generation of quantum states with conditional guidance.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
problem Bayesian inference for high-dimensional regression models often produces biased credible sets.
method Debiasing approach based on Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Frequentist validity of debiased Bayesian posterior.
Bayesian method improves SS settings by leveraging unlabeled data.
problem Improving parameter estimation in semi-supervised settings with unlabeled data.
method Bayesian approach using debiasing of summary statistics.
result Concrete theoretical results validate the method's efficiency and robustness.