arXiv research

Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and volume interact, particularly when the levels of both are high. We find that the…

New method optimizes prediction set volume in conformal prediction.

Using available data from the New York stock market (NYSM) we test four different bi-parametric models to fit the correspondent volume-price distributions at each $10$-minute lag: the Gamma distribution, the inverse Gamma distribution, the Weibull distribution and the log-normal distribution. The volume-price data, whi…

Software finds ideal polyhedra with rational dihedral angles and volume maxima.

A new distillation framework predicts stock trading volumes more accurately with less model size.

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals $τ$ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold $q$. The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2…

The distribution of trade sizes and trading volumes are investigated based on the limit order book data of 22 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. We observe that the size distribution of trades for individual stocks exhibits jumps, which is caused by the number preference…

This manuscript reports a stochastic dynamical scenario whose associated stationary probability density function is exactly a previously proposed one to adjust high-frequency traded volume distributions. This dynamical conjecture, physically connected to superstatiscs, which is intimately related with the current nonex…

To reduce the label complexity in Agnostic Active Learning (A^2 algorithm), volume-splitting splits the hypothesis edges to reduce the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension in version space. However, the effectiveness of volume-splitting critically depends on the initial hypothesis and this problem is also known as target…

We present a framework for describing the evolution of stochastic observables having a non-stationary distribution of values. The framework is applied to empirical volume-prices from assets traded at the New York stock exchange. Using Kullback-Leibler divergence we evaluate the best model out from four biparametric mod…

Employing a recent technique which allows the representation of nonstationary data by means of a juxtaposition of locally stationary patches of different length, we introduce a comprehensive analysis of the key observables in a financial market: the trading volume and the price fluctuations. From the segmentation proce…

We propose a model for price formation in financial markets based on clearing of a standard call auction with random orders, and verify its validity for prediction of the daily closing price distribution statistically. The model considers random buy and sell orders, placed following demand- and supply-side valuation di…

We present evidence that the best model for empirical volume-price distributions is not always the same and it strongly depends in (i) the region of the volume-price spectrum that one wants to model and (ii) the period in time that is being modelled. To show these two features we analyze stocks of the New York stock ma…

We show power-scaling behaviors for fluctuations in share volume, which no other studies have so far done. After analyzing a database of the daily transactions for all securities listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, we selected 1050 large companies that each had an unbroken series of daily trading activity from January …

In this paper, we develop a Markovian model that deals with the volume offered at the best quote of an electronic order book. The volume of the first limit is a stochastic process whose paths are periodically interrupted and reset to a new value, either by a new limit order submitted inside the spread or by a market or…

New framework explains normalizing flows' power and limitations.

Consider linear regression where the examples are generated by an unknown distribution on $R^d\times R$. Without any assumptions on the noise, the linear least squares solution for any i.i.d. sample will typically be biased w.r.t. the least squares optimum over the entire distribution. However, we show that if an i.i.d…

Comment on ``Tests of scaling and universality of the distributions of trade size and share volume: Evidence from three distinct markets" by Plerou and Stanley, Phys. Rev. E 76, 046109 (2007)

The volume density of a hyperbolic link is defined as the ratio of hyperbolic volume to crossing number. We study its properties and a closely-related invariant called the determinant density. It is known that the sets of volume densities and determinant densities of links are dense in the interval [0,v_{oct}]. We cons…

In this study, we investigate the statistical properties of the returns and the trading volume. We show a typical example of power-law distributions of the return and of the trading volume. Next, we propose an interacting agent model of stock markets inspired from statistical mechanics [24] to explore the empirical fin…

For an equiregular sub-Riemannian manifold M, Popp's volume is a smooth volume which is canonically associated with the sub-Riemannian structure, and it is a natural generalization of the Riemannian one. In this paper we prove a general formula for Popp's volume, written in terms of a frame adapted to the sub-Riemannia…

A dynamic herding model with interactions of trading volumes is introduced. At time $t$, an agent trades with a probability, which depends on the ratio of the total trading volume at time $t-1$ to its own trading volume at its last trade. The price return is determined by the volume imbalance and number of trades. The …

We study the volume distribution of nodal domains of random band-limited functions on generic manifolds, and find that in the high energy limit a typical instance obeys a deterministic universal law, independent of the manifold. Some of the basic qualitative properties of this law, such as its support, monotonicity and…

Algorithm finds small confidence sets for arbitrary distributions.

Paper shows how to evenly distribute intersections in hyperbolic spaces.

Motivated by how transaction amount constrain trading volume and price volatility in stock market, we, in this paper, study the relation between volume and price if amount of transaction is given. We find that accumulative trading volume gradually emerges a kurtosis near the price mean value over a trading price range …

We develop an efficient algorithm to find confidence ellipsoids with volume guarantees in high dimensions.

We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatilit…

Study proves stability and uniqueness for a specific type of flow.

We determine the expected curvature polynomial of random real projective varieties given as the zero set of independent random polynomials with Gaussian distribution, whose distribution is invariant under the action of the orthogonal group. In particular, the expected Euler characteristic of such random real projective…

The aim of this paper is to establish two fundamental measure-metric properties of particular random geometric graphs. We consider $\varepsilon$-neighborhood graphs whose vertices are drawn independently and identically distributed from a common distribution defined on a regular submanifold of $\mathbb{R}^K$. We show t…

Paper reinterprets ARP algorithm and improves its analysis and speed.

Proposes methods to accurately learn manifolds and their distributions.

We respond to the issues discussed by Farmer and Lillo (FL) related to our proposed approach to understanding the origin of power-law distributions in stock price fluctuations. First, we extend our previous analysis to 1000 US stocks and perform a new estimation of market impact that accounts for splitting of large ord…

This paper is a starting point towards computing the Hausdorff dimension of submanifolds and the Hausdorff volume of small balls in a sub-Riemannian manifold with singular points. We first consider the case of a strongly equiregular submanifold, i.e., a smooth submanifold N for which the growth vector of the distributi…

We model non-stationary volume-price distributions with a log-normal distribution and collect the time series of its two parameters. The time series of the two parameters are shown to be stationary and Markov-like and consequently can be modelled with Langevin equations, which are derived directly from their series of …

The study shows that the visible range from a point on harmonic manifolds follows an exponential distribution.

Paper uses Transformers to predict intraday volume ratio with high accuracy.

Study on hyperbolic polyhedra and their volume, proving finiteness of arithmetic groups.

If a hyperbolic link has a prime alternating diagram D, then we show that the link complement's volume can be estimated directly from D. We define a very elementary invariant of the diagram D, its twist number t(D), and show that the volume lies between v_3(t(D) - 2)/2 and v_3(16t(D) - 16), where v_3 is the volume of a…

Improved learning of probabilistic box embeddings by modeling parameters with Gumbel distributions.

The dynamics of a stock market with heterogeneous agents is discussed in the framework of a recently proposed spin model for the emergence of bubbles and crashes. We relate the log returns of stock prices to magnetization in the model and find that it is closely related to trading volume as observed in real markets. Th…

We empirically analyze the price and liquidity responses to trade signs, traded volumes and signed traded volumes. Utilizing the singular value decomposition, we explore the interconnections of price responses and of liquidity responses across the whole market. The statistical characteristics of their singular vectors …

New integral defined for Hölder continuous functions, characterizing distributional volume forms.

The paper introduces a new price model based on entropy that better fits high-frequency market data.

Volume weighted average price (VWAP) options are a popular security type in many countries, but despite their popularity very few pricing models have been developed so far for VWAP options. This can be explained by the fact that the VWAP pricing problem is set in an incomplete market since there is no underlying with w…

We introduce a new model in order to describe the fluctuation of tick-by-tick financial time series. Our model, based on marked point process, allows us to incorporate in a unique process the duration of the transaction and the corresponding volume of orders. The model is motivated by the fact that the "excitation" of …

In 3-dimensional hyperbolic geometry, the classical Schlafli formula expresses the variation of the volume of a hyperbolic polyhedron in terms of the length of its edges and of the variation of its dihedral angles. We prove a similar formula for the variation of the volume of the convex core of a geometrically finite h…