A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study tests rough fractional volatility model across different time scales, revealing new volatility patterns.
Study on stochastic volatility models with external shocks triggering jump cascades.
The most common stochastic volatility models such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), the Heston, the exponential OU (ExpOU) and Hull-White models define volatility as a Markovian process. In this work we check of the applicability of the Markovian approximation at separate times scales and will try to answer the question …
Anomalous volatility scaling found in financial data.
We perform return interval analysis of 1-min {\em{realized volatility}} defined by the sum of absolute high-frequency intraday returns for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) and 22 constituent stocks of SSEC. The scaling behavior and memory effect of the return intervals between successive realized vola…
For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and several forecasts for the volatility build from multi-scales linear ARCH process…
New model captures asymmetric rough volatility with Zumbach effect.
Financial time series exhibit two different type of non linear correlations: (i) volatility autocorrelations that have a very long range memory, on the order of years, and (ii) asymmetric return-volatility (or `leverage') correlations that are much shorter ranged. Different stochastic volatility models have been propos…
This paper proposes a multi-scale Markov-Switching GARCH model for EUR/USD volatility.
The paper analyzes LETF option markets using moneyness scaling to find statistical arbitrage opportunities.
In the past few decades considerable effort has been expended in characterizing and modeling financial time series. A number of stylized facts have been identified, and volatility clustering or the tendency toward persistence has emerged as the central feature. In this paper we propose an appropriately defined conditio…
The paper examines the short-time implied volatility of additive processes and finds key parameters.
Trading activity scales with squared volatility, confirmed empirically.
We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary non-Gaussian process which captures many features observed in time series of real stock r…
In practice daily volatility of portfolio returns is transformed to longer holding periods by multiplying by the square-root of time which assumes that returns are not serially correlated. Under this assumption this procedure of scaling can also be applied to contributions to volatility of the assets in the portfolio. …
The growth of the exhange-traded fund (ETF) industry has given rise to the trading of options written on ETFs and their leveraged counterparts {(LETFs)}. We study the relationship between the ETF and LETF implied volatility surfaces when the underlying ETF is modeled by a general class of local-stochastic volatility mo…
Agents' heterogeneity is recognized as a driver mechanism for the persistence of financial volatility. We focus on the multiplicity of investment strategies' horizons, we embed this concept in a continuous time stochastic volatility framework and prove that a parsimonious, two-scale version effectively captures the lon…
This paper investigates the scaling dependencies between measures of "activity" and of "size" for companies included in the FTSE 100. The "size" of companies is measured by the total market capitalization. The "activity" is measured with several quantities related to trades (transaction value per trade, transaction val…
We investigate the large-volatility dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after large volatilities is characterized by a power law, and the exponents usually vary with the strength of the large vo…
The paper proposes a new SDF scaled by time-varying volatility from S&P 500 options.
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time horizons, we obtain a model that captures most stylized facts of financial time seri…
Simulation of financial markets with 300 assets shows volatility clustering and unstable periods.
This paper analyzes portfolio optimization with multi-scale volatility.
New study finds actual volatility is rougher than previously thought.
Optimizes trading strategies with price impact, predictable returns, and stochastic volatility.
This paper optimizes portfolios in a fast-reverting volatility environment.
Model explains financial market volatility using agent interactions.
New models explain multidimensional rough volatility from microscopic price dynamics.
The aim of this paper is to examine the time scaling of the semivariance when returns are modeled by various types of jump-diffusion processes, including stochastic volatility models with jumps in returns and in volatility. In particular, we derive an exact formula for the semivariance when the volatility is kept const…
Deep RL strategies outperform classical models in trading.
Enhanced volatility forecasting using options data and rough volatility model.
This paper clarifies Bitcoin's volatility and predictability across daily, weekly, and monthly scales.
We study the impact of volatility on intraday serial correlation, at time scales of less than 20 minutes, exploiting a data set with all transaction on SPX500 futures from 1993 to 2001. We show that, while realized volatility and intraday serial correlation are linked, this relation is driven by unexpected volatility o…
We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is suitable for time series with extremal dependence. We recover relevant information ab…
New model explains asymmetric volatility feedback and clustering effects in stock market.
Copula-based model improves volatility forecasts by incorporating trading activity.
Two major financial market complexities are transaction costs and uncertain volatility, and we analyze their joint impact on the problem of portfolio optimization. When volatility is constant, the transaction costs optimal investment problem has a long history, especially in the use of asymptotic approximations when th…
LSTM models struggle with volatility prediction due to financial complexities.
Proposes NDIG model to capture bitcoin volatility and option pricing.
The study offers a multiscale model for SPX and VIX options pricing.
Study on Gaussian models reveals moment explosions under certain volatility conditions.
We consider a stochastic volatility model which captures relevant stylized facts of financial series, including the multi-scaling of moments. The volatility evolves according to a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with super-linear mean reversion. Using large deviations techniques, we determine the asymptotic sh…
We study the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model and observe that the model shows a multiscale behavior in the volatility autocorrelation. It also exhibits a leverage correlation and a probability profile for the stationary volatility which are consistent with market observations. All these featu…
We perform a scaling analysis on NYSE daily returns. We show that volatility correlations are power-laws on a time range from one day to one year and, more important, that they exhibit a multiscale behaviour.
We study the daily trading volume volatility of 17,197 stocks in the U.S. stock markets during the period 1989--2008 and analyze the time return intervals between volume volatilities above a given threshold q. For different thresholds q, the probability density function P_q(τ) scales with mean interval <τ> as P_q(τ…
Modeling price formation with interacting Hawkes processes leading to stochastic volatility with leverage.
Corrects the misconception that market impact is just volatility.
Stochastic Volatility in Mean models with heavy-tailed distributions using Hidden Markov Models