A new framework improves VaR recalibration by balancing reliance on imperfect volatility proxies.
problem How to balance reliance on imperfect volatility proxies in one-sided VaR recalibration.
method Proxy-reliance control framework that interpolates between constant-shift and proxy-scaled corrections.
result Lower or intermediate proxy reliance can outperform fully proxy-scaled recalibration in stressed left-tail VaR control.
Reducing volatility proxy improves apparent market correlation dynamics.
problem Attributing apparent slow collective market dynamics to intrinsic or driver inheritance.
method Coupled Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with VIX proxy, decomposing and controlling for autocorrelation.
result VIX-coupled model reduces effective relaxation time from 298 to 61 trading days, improving fit over bare mean reversion.
Measures of implied volatility roughness corrected for bias.
problem Bias in measuring implied volatility roughness.
method Examined implied volatility of short-term options and VIX index, corrected for bias.
result Corrected measures indicate appropriate proxies for underlying volatility.
Study shows cryptocurrency investor base affects volatility.
problem Investor base changes impact cryptocurrency volatility.
method Proxying investor base with subreddit follower changes, analyzed idiosyncratic volatility.
result Changes in cryptocurrency investor base significantly increase idiosyncratic volatility.
An approach to the modelling of volatile time series using a class of uniformity-preserving transforms for uniform random variables is proposed. V-transforms describe the relationship between quantiles of the stationary distribution of the time series and quantiles of the distribution of a predictable volatility proxy …
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
problem Predicting currency returns using volatility shocks.
method Constructed a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections using option-implied volatilities.
result Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks earn lower excess returns.
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is superior to other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in sampling volatility variables. …
The paper studies the continuous-time dynamics of VIX with stochastic volatility and jumps in VIX and volatility. Built on the general parametric affine model with stochastic volatility and jump in logarithm of VIX, we derive a linear relation between the stochastic volatility factor and VVIX index. We detect the exist…
We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatilit…
Study replicates reference-dependent preferences impact on risk-return trade-off in Chinese stock market.
problem Impact of reference-dependent preferences on risk-return trade-off in Chinese stock market.
method Utilized CGO proxy, econometric techniques (Dependent Double Sorting, Fama-MacBeth regressions), and data from 1995-2024.
result Reference-dependent preferences have a weaker or absent positive risk-return relationship in the Chinese market.
We calculate realized volatility of the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei225) Index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and investigate the return dynamics. To avoid the bias on the realized volatility from the non-trading hours issue we calculate realized volatility separately in the two trading sessions, i.e. morning and afternoo…
Research builds an index measuring analysts' perception of informational asymmetry.
problem Measuring the level of informational asymmetry among companies.
method Developed an algorithm based on Elo rating to capture analysts' perception.
result The model shows good fit with significant variables: coverage, volatility, Tobin q, and size.
Study confirms rough volatility in financial data, independent of microstructure noise.
problem Characterizing volatility in financial markets, especially rough volatility.
method Used range-based volatility estimators to confirm findings from fractional behavior.
result Log-volatility behaves like fractional Brownian motion with an even lower Hurst exponent.
We introduce a new factor model for log volatilities that performs dimensionality reduction and considers contributions globally through the market, and locally through cluster structure and their interactions. We do not assume a-priori the number of clusters in the data, instead using the Directed Bubble Hierarchical …
New models analyze how ECB's unconventional policies affect stock market volatility.
problem Analyzing the impact of ECB's unconventional policies on stock market volatility.
method Developed MEM with Asymmetry and Policy effects (MAP) models to separate base volatility from policy effects.
result Significant improvement in forecasting power after Expanded Asset Purchase Programme implementation.
The study uses machine learning to forecast stock volatility, showing superior performance over traditional methods.
problem Forecasting stock volatility using machine learning.
method Pooling stock data, using a proxy for market volatility, and applying neural networks.
result The proposed methodology yields superior out-of-sample forecasts over traditional methods.
Study on stock market volatility and return dispersion during COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock market volatility and return dispersion.
method Used Google index to proxy epidemic impact, modeled volatility, and analyzed influencing factors of log-return.
result Volatility significantly affected by epidemic and cross-sectional return dispersion, with positive coefficients.
The paper introduces a new volatility model for state heterogeneous financial markets using high-frequency data.
problem State heterogeneity in financial volatility processes.
method Developed a state heterogeneous GARCH-Ito (SG-Ito) model based on continuous Ito diffusion process.
result Empirical studies reveal various state heterogeneities in S&P 500 index volatility.
In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …
Bayesian model improves asset price forecasting using realized volatility.
problem Improving asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Integrates dynamic gamma process with DLMs for price and realized volatility.
result Significant improvements in asset price forecasting compared to standard models.
We propose parametric copulas that capture serial dependence in stationary heteroskedastic time series. We develop our copula for first order Markov series, and extend it to higher orders and multivariate series. We derive the copula of a volatility proxy, based on which we propose new measures of volatility dependence…
Study uses high-frequency data to predict ruble depreciation during crisis.
problem Predicting ruble depreciation during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
method Uses intraday high-frequency data (google searches and implied volatility) to model exchange rate fluctuations.
result Implied volatility is more effective than attention in predicting ruble depreciation.
This paper proposes a new framework for financial risk that considers predictability rather than volatility.
problem Volatility's limitations as a risk measure, especially in complex strategies and non-stationary markets.
method Developed a new paradigm based on stochastic processes and the Multifractional Process with Random Exponent (MPRE) framework.
result A formal definition of 'fair volatility' that aligns with market efficiency and provides a measure of market inefficiency.
The Financial Chaos Index models stock market volatility across three regimes based on mutual price fluctuations.
problem Capturing regime-dependent volatility in stock markets.
method Developed a regime-switching framework using the Financial Chaos Index (FCIX) and elastic net regression.
result Identified three market regimes: low-chaos, intermediate-chaos, and high-chaos, each with distinct volatility characteristics.
We find a remarkable time persistence of various proxies for the kurtosis (p-kurtosis) of the intraday returns distribution for the S&P500 index and this permits a significant measure of their evolution from 1983 to 2004. There appears a long time scale dramatic variation of the p-kurtosis uncorrelated with the variati…
The paper examines how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence affect equity volatility forecasting.
problem The study investigates how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence impact equity volatility forecasting.
method The paper combines semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions.
result Persistence measures improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts, particularly during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications.
Estimates roughness of volatility from discrete variance data.
problem Estimating roughness exponent of stochastic volatility from discrete observations of integrated variance.
method Pathwise estimator based on fractional Brownian motion with drift.
result Strong consistency theorems for rough volatility models.
GIFsentiment predicts stock market returns and investor sentiment from social media GIFs.
problem Understanding investor sentiment in the stock market.
method Constructing a sentiment index from social media GIFs and analyzing its correlation with market returns and volume.
result GIFsentiment positively predicts stock market returns and negatively predicts returns for up to four weeks.
A new model predicts financial volatility across firms using spatial correlations.
problem Predicting financial volatility across firms in a network.
method Heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model with local likelihood estimation.
result The model captures spatial spillovers and contagion effects in financial networks.
We study risk-sharing equilibria with general convex costs on the agents' trading rates. For an infinite-horizon model with linear state dynamics and exogenous volatilities, we prove that the equilibrium returns mean-revert around their frictionless counterparts - the deviation has Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics for quadr…
The study confirms that market volatility can be explained by correlated metaorders impacting prices in a square-root fashion.
problem Explaining market volatility using metaorders and their impact.
method Generated synthetic market data and analyzed the correlation between order flow and returns.
result The square-root law of market impact is confirmed and can be measured from anonymized trade data.
A new model reconciles rough volatility and jumps.
problem Combining rough volatility and jump processes.
method Developed a reversionary Heston model with fast mean reversions and large vol-of-vols.
result The reversionary Heston model converges to Lévy jump processes for certain values of the parameter.
Graph auto-encoders predict stock market instability by measuring graph structure changes.
problem Forecasting stock market instability and volatility.
method Use graph auto-encoders to reconstruct graph structure and measure changes.
result Higher GAE reconstruction error correlates with higher volatility.
We develop an expansion approach for the pricing of European quanto options written on LIBOR rates (of a foreign currency). We derive the dynamics of the system of foreign LIBOR rates under the domestic forward measure and then consider the price of the quanto option. In order to take the skew/smile effect observed in …
This paper presents a financial analysis over Twitter sentiment analytics extracted from listed retail brands. We investigate whether there is statistically-significant information between the Twitter sentiment and volume, and stock returns and volatility. Traditional newswires are also considered as a proxy for the ma…
A fast method estimates correlations in hybrid systems using observable market data.
problem Estimating instantaneous correlations in hybrid systems from observable data.
method Empirical correlations between observable market quantities are used to estimate state variables' correlations. Linear systems are involved, and the matrix is converted to positive semidefinite if necessary.
result The estimates are reasonably accurate, especially with more than 1,000 data points.
Study finds multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and external uncertainties.
problem Investigating relationships between agricultural spot markets and external uncertainties.
method Multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (MF-X-DMA).
result Maize exhibits intrinsic joint multifractality with all uncertainty proxies.
PEARL uses AI to replicate private equity performance with liquid assets.
problem Lack of access to private equity due to high costs and complexity.
method Combines AI with liquid assets, incorporating asymmetry for better performance.
result Model outperforms liquid proxies and aligns with private equity benchmarks.
We created financial benchmarks for distribution shifts in crude oil prices and volatility.
problem Scarcity of task-labeled time-series benchmarks in finance.
method Transformed asset price data into volatility proxies, generated task labels based on distribution shifts, and made datasets publicly available.
result Inclusion of task labels improves continual learning algorithms' performance on real-world data.
Study accelerates NAS research with a large dataset of ZC proxies.
problem Speeding up neural architecture search with ZC proxies.
method Created NAS-Bench-Suite, evaluated 13 ZC proxies across 28 tasks, and provided a unified codebase.
result ZC proxies capture substantial complementary information and can improve NAS algorithm performance.
Unified framework for analyzing neural networks trained by gradient descent.
problem Lack of generalizable guarantees for neural networks trained by gradient descent.
method Proxy convexity and proxy Polyak-Lojasiewicz inequalities.
result Unified guarantees for neural networks trained by gradient descent.
We present a simple approach to forecasting conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regression that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future conditional probability distributi…
Study semi-supervised learning with noisy proxy covariates, deriving bounds and showing gains.
problem Learning from noisy proxy covariates with scarce labels.
method Two-stage estimator learning kernel eigenfeatures from all proxy covariates and fitting a ridge predictor on labeled data.
result Finite sample bounds show fast labeled sample rates and consistent gains over supervised and semi-supervised baselines.
DFPV improves PCL for confounded bandit policy evaluation.
problem Estimating causal effects in confounded settings with high-dimensional data.
method Deep feature proxy variable method (DFPV) for high-dimensional, nonlinear relationships.
result DFPV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic benchmarks and confounded bandit problems.
A framework uses proxies to prioritize treatment without estimating causal effects.
problem Prioritizing treatment when causal effects are hard to estimate.
method Decision-focused framework identifying conditions for proxy usefulness.
result Proxies can recover correct effect ordering under specific conditions.
New method recovers latent confounders from high-dimensional proxy variables.
problem Detecting latent confounders from high-dimensional proxy variables.
method Proxy Confounder Factorization (PCF) framework using ICA-PCF and GD-PCF.
result ICA-PCF recovers confounders with high correlation and low error in synthetic and real-world data.
Single proxy variable helps estimate causal effects from confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects from treatment to outcome when unobserved confounders are present.
method Assumes a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and a known mechanism generating the proxy from the confounder. Proves causal effects are identifiable under completeness assumption.
result Causal effects are identifiable under SPICE assumption.
A scalable method for deep metric learning using chance constraints.
problem Improving deep metric learning by addressing feasibility issues.
method Relating DML to chance constraints, reformulating as a feasibility problem, and iteratively training proxies.
result The method effectively improves deep metric learning performance across multiple benchmarks.