Study compares ANN and GARCH models for volatility prediction across sectors.
problem Comparing ANN and GARCH models for volatility prediction.
method Examined five sectors with low, medium, and high volatility, using three GARCH specifications and three ANN architectures.
result ANN model performs better for low volatility, GARCH for medium and high.
Study compares MoE and RNN models for stock price prediction across volatility profiles.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy across different volatility levels.
method Dynamic Mixture of Experts model combining RNN and linear models, adjusting weights through a gating network.
result MoE model outperforms individual models in reducing prediction errors.
A new framework for adaptive behavior using reusable value profiles.
problem Adaptive behavior in changing environments requires switching among value-control regimes, but maintaining separate parameters for each situation is impractical.
method Introduces value profiles: reusable bundles of parameters assigned to hidden states, allowing for state-conditional strategy recruitment without independent parameters for each context.
result Profile-based models outperform simpler alternatives in probabilistic reversal learning, suggesting belief-dependent control of adaptive behavior.
We study the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model and observe that the model shows a multiscale behavior in the volatility autocorrelation. It also exhibits a leverage correlation and a probability profile for the stationary volatility which are consistent with market observations. All these featu…
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of Dow Jones Industrial Average and Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 in the perio…
Study classifies stock price jumps as exogenous or endogenous using news data.
problem Differentiating between exogenous and endogenous price jumps.
method Synchronized news data with order book data to analyze stock price movements.
result Exogenous jumps are abrupt and follow a decaying power-law, while endogenous jumps are progressively accelerating.
This paper models AMM positions using CI options to calculate LVR and provide actionable guidance.
problem Calculating and managing adverse-selection costs in automated market makers (AMMs).
method Modeling AMM positions as perpetual American CI options to replicate delta and calculate LVR.
result LVR is identical to theta of CI options, and AMM positions have approximately constant LVR over long windows.
The study identifies and analyzes different market regimes in equity markets using advanced signal processing techniques.
problem Understanding and quantifying the dynamics of different market regimes in equity markets.
method Data-driven Hilbert--Huang Transform for regime identification, Holo--Hilbert Spectral Analysis for profiling, and Variable-Length Markov Chains for return dynamics modeling.
result Developed markets normalize more effectively as stress subsides, while developing markets retain residual tail dependence and downside persistence.
Study proposes DRL for investor-specific portfolio optimization considering asset volatility.
problem Dynamic allocation of funds balancing risk and return under market conditions.
method Volatility-guided Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) framework.
result Proposed DRL portfolios outperform baseline strategies.
Proposes a new way to represent uncertainty using implied volatility.
problem Uncertainty in financial markets and biological systems.
method Mathematical analysis of various probability distributions.
result Representation of different probability distributions using BSM implied volatility.
For a commodity spot price dynamics given by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility, we price forwards using a class of pricing measures that simultaneously allow for change of level and speed in the mean reversion of both the price and the volatility. The risk premium i…
New method reconstructs Black-Scholes option prices from current profiles.
problem Reconstructing Black-Scholes prices from current profiles, dealing with ill-posedness.
method Price-dimensional reduction using Legendre polynomials, Tikhonov regularization.
result Reconstructs Black-Scholes prices from noisy initial data, stabilizing the solution.
We give a stochastic microscopic modelling of stock markets driven by continuous double auction. If we take into account the mimetic behavior of traders, when they place limit order, our virtual markets shows the power-law tail of the distribution of returns with the exponent outside the Levy stable region, the short m…
WamOL uses PINNs to efficiently calibrate IVS from sparse data.
problem Calibrating time-dependent IVS from sparse market data.
method Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) with adaptive reweighting.
result WamOL outperforms in calibrating intraday IVS from uneven data.
Different optimizer choices lead to different financial model predictions.
problem The impact of optimizer choice on neural network models in financial time series.
method Analysis of large-scale volatility forecasting for S&P 500 stocks using various model-training-pipeline pairs.
result Optimizer choice reshapes non-linear response profiles and temporal dependence in financial models, leading to different functional outcomes.
In order to simulate the complex phenomena manifested in stock markets, we introduce a continuous asynchronous model in which millions of individual traders interact through a central orders matching mechanism, just as it happens in real stock markets. Each trader has a unique decision function, which allows him/ her t…
In this paper we introduce an additive two-factor model for electricity futures prices based on Normal Inverse Gaussian Lévy processes, that fulfills a no-overlapping-arbitrage (NOA) condition. We compute European option prices by Fourier transform methods, introduce a specific calibration procedure that takes into acc…
The paper develops a new framework for pricing and hedging liquidity in crypto markets.
problem Arbitrage and risk management in crypto market making.
method Developed a new mathematical framework using a coordinate system defined by price and intrinsic liquidity.
result Established a linear dependence of asset reserves and value functions on intrinsic liquidity, facilitating arbitrage-free pricing and delta hedging.
This study proposes a framework for identifying profitable trading opportunities based on volatility and causal relationships.
problem Identifying profitable trading opportunities in financial markets.
method A combination of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), Granger Causality Test (GCT), Peter-Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) test, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) for identifying and executing trades.
result The proposed volatility-based trading strategy outperformed a Buy-and-Hold strategy, yielding a total return of 15.38%.
SnapMMD forecasts cell differentiation outcomes from snapshot data.
problem Forecasting cell differentiation outcomes from limited snapshot data.
method SnapMMD learns dynamics by directly fitting the joint distribution of state measurements and observation time with MMD loss, allowing for unknown and state-dependent volatilities.
result SnapMMD delivers accurate forecasts and an R2-style statistic for diagnosing fit.
This paper optimizes cryptocurrency portfolios by clustering price correlations and improving risk-return profiles.
problem Volatility and regulatory uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets make portfolio construction challenging.
method The paper combines network analysis, price forecasting, and portfolio theory to identify stable groups of correlated cryptocurrencies.
result Predictive consensus-clustering portfolios maintain positive and stable performance up to a 14-day horizon, with favourable gain-loss asymmetry and tighter tail-risk control.
A method to produce personalized classification models to automatically review online dating profiles on Tinder is proposed, based on the user's historical preference. The method takes advantage of a FaceNet facial classification model to extract features which may be related to facial attractiveness. The embeddings fr…
Profile entropy measures learnability and compressibility of discrete distributions.
problem Understanding the learnability and compressibility of discrete distributions.
method Investigates profile entropy, showing its role in estimation, inference, and compression.
result Profile entropy is a fundamental measure unifying estimation, inference, and compression.
Study improves stock return uncertainty prediction using Gaussian mixture distributions.
problem Improving prediction of stock market return uncertainty.
method Gaussian mixture distribution-based deep learning model.
result Superior performance in volatility estimation, especially during market volatility.
A method to describe Riemann surfaces using graph profiles is proposed.
problem Describing Riemann surfaces in a graph-theoretic framework.
method Graph profiles to represent Riemann surfaces, establishing necessary and sufficient conditions for their existence.
result A criterion for the existence of Riemann surfaces with a given signature.
In cheminformatics, compound-target binding profiles has been a main source of data for research. For data repositories that only provide positive profiles, a popular assumption is that unreported profiles are all negative. In this paper, we caution audience not to take this assumption for granted, and present empirica…
Method controls extrapolation in prediction profiles for statistical and machine learning models.
problem Avoiding invalid predictions due to extrapolation in prediction profiles.
method Genetic algorithm optimization over constrained factor regions.
result Optimal factor settings without constraint are often invalid and extrapolated.
Investing in cryptocurrencies can improve portfolio risk-return profile, especially with diversification strategies.
problem Investing in cryptocurrencies and evaluating their potential for portfolio allocation strategies.
method Investigated different types of investors, various portfolio construction rules, and incorporated liquidity constraints.
result Cryptocurrencies can improve the risk-return profile of portfolios, especially with diversification strategies.
Background: While machine learning (ML) models are rapidly emerging as promising screening tools in critical care medicine, the identification of homogeneous subphenotypes within populations with heterogeneous conditions such as pediatric sepsis may facilitate attainment of high-predictive performance of these prognost…
We equip many non compact non simply connected surfaces with smooth Riemannian metrics whose isoperimetric profile is smooth, a highly non generic property. The computation of the profile is based on a calibration argument, a rearrangement argument, the Bol-Fiala curvature dependent inequality, together with new result…
We introduce a spectrum of monotone coarse invariants for metric measure spaces called Poincaré profiles. The two extremes of this spectrum determine the growth of the space, and the separation profile as defined by Benjamini--Schramm--Timár. In this paper we focus on properties of the Poincaré profiles of groups with …
Logarithmic separation profile in hyperbolic groups shows hierarchical structure.
problem Understanding hierarchical structure in hyperbolic groups with logarithmic separation.
method Proving groups with logarithmic separation split over cyclic groups and providing counterexamples.
result Not all groups with hierarchical structure have logarithmic separation profile.
Study applies HRP to Latin American markets, showing smoother risk-return profile.
problem Lack of empirical analyses of HRP in Latin American markets.
method Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) with hierarchical clustering and recursive bisection.
result HRP portfolio outperforms Max Sharpe portfolio in NUAM markets, with smoother risk-return profile.
Framework detects shape shifts in functional profiles using Fréchet mean and shape invariant model.
problem Detecting shape shifts in functional profiles.
method Combining Fréchet mean and shape invariant model for interpretable parameterization of profile deviations.
result Potential shifts in shape deformation process distinguished by significant shifts in amplitude and/or phase.
Study compares isoperimetric profiles on manifolds with integral Ricci curvature bounds.
problem Comparing isoperimetric profiles on manifolds with integral Ricci curvature bounds.
method Extending previous work, the study uses integral bounds on Ricci curvature to prove comparison results for isoperimetric profile functions.
result Comparison results for the Isoperimetric profile function in manifolds with integral bounds on Ricci curvature.
A new portfolio method uses NMF for risk budgeting, outperforming classical methods.
problem Portfolio diversification and risk management in crypto and traditional assets.
method Risk factor budgeting using convex Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF).
result Our method outperforms classical portfolio allocations in diversification and risk profile.
There has been a rapid proliferation of machine learning/deep learning (ML) models and wide adoption of them in many application domains. This has made profiling and characterization of ML model performance an increasingly pressing task for both hardware designers and system providers, as they would like to offer the b…
We implement momentum strategies using reward-risk measures as ranking criteria based on classical tempered stable distribution. Performances and risk characteristics for the alternative portfolios are obtained in various asset classes and markets. The reward-risk momentum strategies with lower volatility levels outper…
Estimates lower bounds for isoperimetric profiles and improves on previous estimates for specific manifolds.
problem Estimating lower bounds for isoperimetric profiles of specific Riemannian manifolds.
method Explicit lower bounds for isoperimetric profiles of Riemannian product manifolds.
result Improved lower bounds for isoperimetric profiles and Yamabe constants.
In the context of sub-Riemannian Heisenberg groups Hn, n \geq 1, we shall study Isoperimetric Profiles, which are closed compact hypersurfaces having constant horizontal mean curvature, very similar to ellipsoids. Our main goal is to study the stability of Isoperimetric Profiles.
New SigSwap model for path-dependent financial risk.
problem Managing complex, path-dependent financial risks.
method Geometry-based approach using path-signature and Signature Expected Shortfall.
result Path-dependent risks can be converted into transparent risk factors.
Paper describes profiles of multivariate normal distributions and novel estimators for mutual information.
problem Estimating mutual information for complex distributions.
method Analytical description of profiles, introduction of Bend and Mix Models, Monte Carlo estimation.
result Bend and Mix Models accurately estimate mutual information profiles and provide Bayesian estimates.
Non-Negative Matrix Factorization, NMF, attempts to find a number of archetypal response profiles, or parts, such that any sample profile in the dataset can be approximated by a close profile among these archetypes or a linear combination of these profiles. The non-negativity constraint is imposed while estimating arch…
Random layer-wise pruning profiles are as effective as metric-based ones for various datasets.
problem Reduction of model size and computational resources in neural networks.
method Conducted baseline experiments, developed RL-based search algorithm for finding transferable layer-wise pruning profiles.
result RL-based layer-wise pruning profiles are as good or better than best profiles found on the original dataset via exhaustive search.
Study lampshuffler groups' isoperimetric profiles, refining previous estimates.
problem Relate isoperimetric profiles of lampshuffler groups to their base groups.
method Use lamplighter subgraphs and halo products to find optimal upper bounds.
result Sharp estimates for exponential growth groups, including Brieussel-Zheng groups.
This work introduces a geometric approach to probability representation and option pricing.
problem Representing probability distributions geometrically for better understanding and approximation.
method Introducing a geometric representation of probability using implied volatility and geometric transformations.
result Any probability distribution on positive reals can be represented by a planar curve, facilitating approximation and analysis.
Paper introduces Arte-Blue Chip Index for diversifying portfolios with art investments.
problem Evaluating blue-chip art as a viable asset class for diversification.
method Developed Arte-Blue Chip Index tracking top-performing artists over 24 years.
result 20% allocation of blue-chip art in a diversified portfolio increases risk-adjusted returns by 20%.
The study analyzes how large language models form and express investor risk profiles.
problem Understanding how large language models (LLMs) form and express investor risk profiles.
method Examined three LLMs (GPT, Gemini, and Llama) and assessed their responses to a standardized risk questionnaire under varying prompts.
result LLMs generally form long-term investment profiles, but they exhibit different risk tolerance levels.