Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved superior performance in various prediction tasks, but can be very vulnerable to adversarial examples or perturbations. Therefore, it is crucial to measure the sensitivity of DNNs to various forms of perturbations in real applications. We introduce a novel perturbation manifold …
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48 results for “various models”
We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalize…
This research predicts stock market movements using Vision-Language models.
problem Predicting future stock market direction using historical data.
method Utilizing image and byte-based representations of stock data processed with Vision-Language models.
result The proposed approach significantly outperforms deep learning baselines.
New framework transforms labeled datasets for various machine learning tasks.
problem Lack of principled methods to transform labeled datasets.
method Wasserstein gradient flows in probability space for optimization of data-generating distributions.
result Framework can impose constraints, adapt for transfer learning, or re-purpose models.
Forecasting the Leading Indicator of a Recession: The 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spreadq-fin.ST
Paper forecasts recession indicators using yield spread models.
problem Forecasting the leading indicator of a recession using yield spread.
method Applied econometric time series and machine learning models to forecast yield spread.
result Parsimonious univariate ARIMA model outperforms richly parameterized VAR method.
This new research explores the effects of various training methods on a Polish to English Statistical Machine Translation system for medical texts. Various elements of the EMEA parallel text corpora from the OPUS project were used as the basis for training of phrase tables and language models and for development, tunin…
Sum Product Networks (SPNs) are a recently developed class of deep generative models which compute their associated unnormalized density functions using a special type of arithmetic circuit. When certain sufficient conditions, called the decomposability and completeness conditions (or "D&C" conditions), are imposed on …
Paper examines power consumption in neural networks using various activation functions.
problem Power consumption in machine learning models.
method Examines power consumption for different activation functions.
result Substantial differences in power consumption exist between activation functions.
The paper develops diverse risk models for US stock portfolios.
problem Maximizing profits while minimizing risk in stock markets.
method Various high-dimensional risk models and investment strategies tested.
result Out-of-sample tests show improved portfolio performance.
We propose a new method (implemented in an R-program) to simulate long-range daily stock-price data. The program reproduces various stylized facts much better than various parametric models from the extended GARCH-family. In particular, the empirically observed changes in unconditional variance are truthfully mirrored …
In recent years, advances in machine learning algorithms, cheap computational resources, and the availability of big data have spurred the deep learning revolution in various application domains. In particular, supervised learning techniques in image analysis have led to superhuman performance in various tasks, such as…
Paper proves various types of varieties minimize a specific energy.
problem Minimizing a specific energy in various types of varieties.
method Analyzes various polarized varieties over .
result Various types of varieties minimize the Arakelov K-energy.
The possibility that price dynamics is affected by its distance from a moving average has been recently introduced as new statistical tool. The purpose is to identify the tendency of the price dynamics to be attractive or repulsive with respect to its own moving average. We consider a number of tests for various models…
We apply supervised deep neural networks (DNNs) for pricing and calibration of both vanilla and exotic options under both diffusion and pure jump processes with and without stochastic volatility. We train our neural network models under different number of layers, neurons per layer, and various different activation fun…
This paper evaluates various bus arrival time prediction models.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of bus arrival times.
method General evaluation framework for various models, including raw data pre-processing.
result Preliminary results show strengths and weaknesses of common models.
In statistical learning, many problem formulations have been proposed so far, such as multi-class learning, complementarily labeled learning, multi-label learning, multi-task learning, which provide theoretical models for various real-world tasks. Although they have been extensively studied, the relationship among them…
Paper proposes an algorithm for PARAFAC2-based CMTF models with various constraints.
problem Jointly analyze matrices and tensors with irregular/ragged data.
method Alternating Optimization (AO) and ADMM for fitting PARAFAC2-based CMTF models with various constraints.
result Accurately recovers underlying patterns using various constraints and linear couplings.
This review compares various deep generative models.
problem Training deep neural networks to model data distributions.
method Comprehensive comparison of VAEs, GANs, flows, energy models, and autoregressives.
result Trade-offs and interrelationships among different models.
This review examines various LOB simulation models in algorithmic trading.
problem Calibrating and fine-tuning automated trading strategies in financial markets.
method Classification and analysis of LOB simulation models based on methodology.
result Price impact is a crucial phenomenon to model in algorithmic trading.
Efficient method for lookback option pricing under Markov models.
problem Pricing lookback options under Markov models.
method Model-free representations combined with numerical quadrature and Markov chain approximation.
result Efficient method applicable to various Markov models.
Stochastically Transitive Models for Pairwise Comparisons: Statistical and Computational Issuesstat.ML
There are various parametric models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, including the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) and Thurstone models, but their reliance on strong parametric assumptions is limiting. In this work, we study a flexible model for pairwise comparisons, under which the probabilities of outcomes are requir…
We provide complete source code for building a fundamental industry classification based on publically available and freely downloadable data. We compare various fundamental industry classifications by running a horserace of short-horizon trading signals (alphas) utilizing open source heterotic risk models (https://ssr…
Method selects most useful network model for various tasks.
problem Impact of translating raw data to network models is unexamined.
method Proposes a network model selection methodology focusing on utility and parsimony.
result Demonstrates the importance of network definition for system behavior.
Adding random features to GNNs improves their performance.
problem Limitations of GNNs in distinguishing graphs and learning efficient algorithms.
method Adding random features to each node in GNNs.
result Random features enable GNNs to learn optimal algorithms for graph problems.
The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no consensus. It is difficult to simultaneously account for cohort effects and age-adj…
We propose a novel confidence scoring mechanism for deep neural networks based on a two-model paradigm involving a base model and a meta-model. The confidence score is learned by the meta-model observing the base model succeeding/failing at its task. As features to the meta-model, we investigate linear classifier probe…
The chapter compares Gaussian process models for stochastic simulators with varying noise.
problem Modeling stochastic simulators with varying noise.
method Various Gaussian process models are compared, including input varying noise variance, non-Gaussian noise, and quantile modeling.
result Sequential design procedures are adapted for these models.
This research explores the effects of various training settings on a Polish to English Statistical Machine Translation system for spoken language. Various elements of the TED, Europarl, and OPUS parallel text corpora were used as the basis for training of language models, for development, tuning and testing of the tran…
To answer questions about racial inequality and fairness, we often need a way to infer race and ethnicity from names. One way to infer race and ethnicity from names is by relying on the Census Bureau's list of popular last names. The list, however, suffers from at least three limitations: 1. it only contains last names…
Various valuation adjustments, or XVAs, can be written in terms of non-linear PIDEs equivalent to FBSDEs. In this paper we develop a Fourier-based method for solving FBSDEs in order to efficiently and accurately price Bermudan derivatives, including options and swaptions, with XVA under the flexible dynamics of a local…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are powerful machine learning models and have succeeded in various artificial intelligence tasks. Although various architectures and modules for the DNNs have been proposed, selecting and designing the appropriate network structure for a target problem is a challenging task. In this paper, w…
The paper introduces multicalibration to improve confidence scores in LLMs.
problem Improving the reliability and interpretability of confidence scores for LLMs.
method Forming groupings of prompt/completion pairs correlated with correctness, using clustering and self-annotation. Developing multicalibration algorithms to reduce overfitting.
result Our techniques yield confidence scores that significantly improve calibration and accuracy compared to existing methods.
Automatic continuous speech recognition (CSR) is sufficiently mature that a variety of real world applications are now possible including large vocabulary transcription and interactive spoken dialogues. This paper reviews the evolution of the statistical modelling techniques which underlie current-day systems, specific…
Effectively modelling hidden structures in a network is very practical but theoretically challenging. Existing relational models only involve very limited information, namely the binary directional link data, embedded in a network to learn hidden networking structures. There is other rich and meaningful information (e.…
Unified framework for analyzing model stealing attacks and defenses.
problem Vulnerability of ML applications to model stealing attacks.
method Developed a rigorous threat model and evaluation criteria, proposed methods to quantify attack and defense strategies.
result Demonstrated the importance of attack-specific perturbations for effective defenses.
Reducing network complexity has been a major research focus in recent years with the advent of mobile technology. Convolutional Neural Networks that perform various vision tasks without memory overhaul is the need of the hour. This paper focuses on qualitative and quantitative analysis of reducing the network complexit…
Unified framework for denoising models across various spaces.
problem Improving generative models and approximate posterior simulation.
method Generalizing denoising diffusions to a broader class of spaces using a new extension of score matching.
result Unified models for denoising and posterior simulation.
Bi-directional LSTMs are a powerful tool for text representation. On the other hand, they have been shown to suffer various limitations due to their sequential nature. We investigate an alternative LSTM structure for encoding text, which consists of a parallel state for each word. Recurrent steps are used to perform lo…
Proposes GPR with local explanation for feature interpretation.
problem Lack of feature interpretation in Gaussian process regression.
method Introduces a locally linear model to explain feature contributions in GPR predictions.
result Achieves comparable predictive performance to GPR and superior interpretability.
This paper consists of two parts. The first part is devoted to empirical analysis of consolidated order book (COB) for the index RTS futures. In the second part we consider Poissonian multi--agent model of the COB. By varying parameters of different groups of agents submitting orders to the book we are able to model va…
Paper proposes FTT-NAS to create fault-tolerant CNNs for edge devices.
problem Faults in edge devices affect deep learning applications.
method Formalized fault models, implemented FTT-NAS, incorporated FTT.
result Discovered CNNs outperform baseline architectures with fault tolerance.
PaRCE estimates model confidence for CNNs across various uncertainties.
problem Limited holistic approach to estimating perception model confidence in CNNs.
method Probabilistic and reconstruction-based competency estimation.
result PaRCE best distinguishes between various types of samples and regions.
Financial time series prediction, especially with machine learning techniques, is an extensive field of study. In recent times, deep learning methods (especially time series analysis) have performed outstandingly for various industrial problems, with better prediction than machine learning methods. Moreover, many resea…
Improved diffusion model generation speed with speculative sampling.
problem Generating samples from computationally expensive diffusion models.
method Extending speculative sampling to diffusion models, using fast draft models for candidate token generation.
result Significant speedup in generation, halving the number of function evaluations.
We discuss the applications of Random Matrix Theory in the context of financial markets and econometric models, a topic about which a considerable number of papers have been devoted to in the last decade. This mini-review is intended to guide the reader through various theoretical results (the Marcenko-Pastur spectrum …
Proposes a Gaussian process for graph signals using adaptive spectral kernels.
problem Predicting signals on graph nodes with various structures.
method Spectral kernel learning approach that incorporates a polynomial function in the graph spectral domain.
result The model accurately recovers ground truth spectral filters and outperforms in real-world graph data.
FinVision uses LLM agents to predict stock markets by processing various financial data types.
problem Challenges in integrating diverse financial data for accurate stock market prediction.
method Multi-agent framework with LLMs specialized in different financial data types and a reflection module.
result The reflection module enhances decision-making capabilities for financial trading.
The problem of data uncertainty has motivated the incorporation of robust optimization in various arenas, beyond the Markowitz portfolio optimization. This work presents the extension of the robust optimization framework for the minimization of downside risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-a…