The paper analyzes variational autoencoders for state space models with risk bounds.
problem Analyzing the risk associated with variational autoencoders for state space models.
method Backward factorization of variational distributions to analyze excess risk, providing oracle inequalities and upper bounds.
result Explicit upper bounds on variational estimation error for state space models under strong mixing assumptions.
Improved state estimation in nonlinear models using amortized backward variational inference.
problem State estimation in general state-space models.
method Amortized backward variational inference with neural network parameters.
result Linear growth of variational approximation error in number of observations.
State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dy…
We introduce Deep Variational Bayes Filters (DVBF), a new method for unsupervised learning and identification of latent Markovian state space models. Leveraging recent advances in Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes, DVBF can overcome intractable inference distributions via variational inference. Thus, it can handle …
Bayesian state and parameter estimation for nonlinear models using variational methods.
problem Estimating states and parameters for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational approach to approximate the intractable Bayesian distribution, resulting in an optimisation problem.
result The proposed method efficiently computes Bayesian estimates for nonlinear models, outperforming Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in numerical examples.
A new method learns complex dynamical systems from data efficiently.
problem Learning complex dynamical systems from large-scale data efficiently.
method Low-rank structured variational autoencoding framework for nonlinear Gaussian state-space models.
result Consistently demonstrates better predictive capabilities compared to other models.
Online method for state estimation and parameter learning in SSMs.
problem State estimation and parameter learning in state-space models.
method Stochastic gradient optimization of variational lower bound, using backward decompositions and Bellman recursions.
result Ability to operate online without revisiting historic observations.
Paper uses variational inference to estimate nonlinear models.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational inference approach for nonlinear state-space models.
result The method provides robust parameter estimates and outperforms alternatives.
Efficiently estimates online variational learning using importance sampling.
problem Online variational estimation in state-space models.
method Variational approach with Monte Carlo importance sampling.
result Proposed efficient algorithm for streaming data.
We solve 6-DoF localisation and 3D reconstruction using deep state-space models.
problem 6-DoF localisation and dense 3D reconstruction in spatial environments.
method Approximate Bayesian inference in a deep state-space model combining learning and domain knowledge.
result Near state-of-the-art performance on UAV flight data.
New method for efficient online variational estimation in streaming data.
problem Efficiently estimating parameters and latent states in online parametric models.
method i.i.d. Monte Carlo sampling coupled with deep architecture.
result The method computes the evidence lower bound and its gradient efficiently.
New method for efficient Bayesian inference in GPSSMs.
problem Challenges in inference for Gaussian process state-space models.
method Free-form variational inference with stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Our method learns transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.
A new variational method for SSMs improves inference efficiency.
problem Hard variational inference for state space models.
method Proposes variational marginal particle filter (VMPF) based on Rao-Blackwellization.
result VMPF provides tighter variational bounds and sometimes benefits from unbiased reparameterization.
New method speeds up Gaussian process inference for large datasets.
problem Numerical instability and inefficiency in approximate inference methods for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Conjugate-computation variational inference with Kalman recursions.
result Linear-time inference with fast and stable variational inference for state-space GP models.
We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states and the static parameters of the model. We build up on recent advances in compu…
We address tracking and prediction of multiple moving objects in visual data streams as inference and sampling in a disentangled latent state-space model. By encoding objects separately and including explicit position information in the latent state space, we perform tracking via amortized variational Bayesian inferenc…
Parallelizes autoregressive generation using VSSM.
problem Autoregressive models' inability to parallelize generation.
method Variational SSM (VSSM) with parallelizable sampling and decoding.
result Parallel generation possible with VSSM.
ETGPSSM efficiently models high-dimensional, non-stationary systems with reduced complexity.
problem Prohibitive computational and parametric complexity in high-dimensional, non-stationary dynamical systems.
method ETGPSSM integrates a single shared GP with input-dependent normalizing flows for scalable and flexible modeling.
result ETGPSSM outperforms existing models in computational efficiency and accuracy.
VLBM learns MDP transitions from limited data, improving OPE performance.
problem Limited coverage of state and action space in offline trajectories.
method VLBM uses variational inference with RSA and branching architecture.
result VLBM outperforms existing OPE methods on deep OPE benchmark.
New GP model tackles physics constraints efficiently.
problem Lack of efficient, physics-informed models for complex systems.
method Physics-informed variational state-space Gaussian process.
result Efficient spatio-temporal modeling with improved performance.
Paper introduces TSSDMN for modeling dynamic multilayer networks.
problem Capturing temporal and cross-layer dynamics in multilayer networks.
method Tensor State Space Model (TSSDMN) using symmetric Tucker decomposition.
result TSSDMN uniquely captures temporal dynamics within and across layers.
The use of Gaussian process models is typically limited to datasets with a few tens of thousands of observations due to their complexity and memory footprint. The two most commonly used methods to overcome this limitation are 1) the variational sparse approximation which relies on inducing points and 2) the state-space…
Paper develops a new state estimation method for nonlinear systems.
problem State estimation for nonlinear state-space models is intractable.
method Developed a variational inference approach based on Gaussian approximations.
result The method outperforms alternative Gaussian approaches in various examples.
Online VSMC efficiently learns SSM parameters in streaming data.
problem Parameter learning and latent state inference in state-space models.
method Combines particle methods and variational inference for online learning.
result Online VSMC achieves efficient, entirely on-the-fly parameter estimation and particle proposal adaptation.
Variational inference has had great success in scaling approximate Bayesian inference to big data by exploiting mini-batch training. To date, however, this strategy has been most applicable to models of independent data. We propose an extension to state space models of time series data based on a novel generative model…
Our article considers a Gaussian variational approximation of the posterior density in a high-dimensional state space model. The variational parameters to be optimized are the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the approximation. The number of parameters in the covariance matrix grows as the square of the number …
State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variati…
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series data. Fully probabilistic SSMs, however, are often found hard to train, even for …
Recent advances in the estimation of deep directed graphical models and recurrent networks let us contribute to the removal of a blind spot in the area of probabilistc modelling of time series. The proposed methods i) can infer distributed latent state-space trajectories with nonlinear transitions, ii) scale to large d…
A new method for online VI in SSMs using asymptotic contrast.
problem Lack of functionality for streaming data in standard VI methods for SSMs.
method Propose maximising an IWAE-type variational lower bound on the asymptotic contrast function using stochastic approximation.
result OSIWAE allows for online learning of model parameters and latent states.
Modern reinforcement learning algorithms reach super-human performance on many board and video games, but they are sample inefficient, i.e. they typically require significantly more playing experience than humans to reach an equal performance level. To improve sample efficiency, an agent may build a model of the enviro…
A new model tackles language generation issues by using discrete variational attention.
problem Information under-representation and posterior collapse in variational autoencoders.
method Proposes a discrete variational attention model with categorical distribution over attention mechanism.
result Enhances latent space for language generation and avoids posterior collapse.
We introduce a variational approach to learning and inference of temporally hierarchical structure and representation for sequential data. We propose the Variational Temporal Abstraction (VTA), a hierarchical recurrent state space model that can infer the latent temporal structure and thus perform the stochastic state …
Neural Physicist learns physical dynamics from images.
problem Learning meaningful physical state representations and accurate state transitions from image sequences.
method Neural Physicist uses VAE for state extraction, NP for parameters, and SSM for dynamics.
result Achieves long-term predictions and identifies system degrees of freedom.
This research improves dynamical systems understanding by identifying latent states and their nonlinear transitions.
problem Previous work on dynamical systems could not identify nonlinear transition dynamics, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Proposes a state-space modeling framework using variational auto-encoders to identify latent states and their nonlinear transition functions.
result Demonstrates high accuracy in recovering latent state dynamics and future prediction accuracy.
We propose a new variational inference algorithm for learning in Gaussian Process State-Space Models (GPSSMs). Our algorithm enables learning of unstable and partially observable systems, where previous algorithms fail. Our main algorithmic contribution is a novel approximate posterior that can be calculated efficientl…
This paper reviews and benchmarks DVAEs for sequential data.
problem Processing sequential data with temporal dependencies.
method Dynamical Variational Autoencoders (DVAEs) for sequential data.
result Experimental benchmark on speech analysis-resynthesis task.
GD-VAEs learn dynamics from observations using geometric and topological information.
problem Learning parsimonious representations of nonlinear dynamics from observations.
method Develops data-driven methods incorporating geometric and topological information using Variational Autoencoders (VAEs).
result GD-VAEs provide methods for learning reduced dimensional representations of nonlinear dynamics.
Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic point-estimation problems governed by a set of user-defined hyperparameters: the a…
New variational inference approach using Hilbert space for robotic state estimation.
problem Robotic state estimation with high-dimensional data.
method Variational inference reformulated in a Bayesian Hilbert space, using iterative projection.
result Variational inference can be seen as iterative projection in Euclidean space.
A new model for time series using discrete latent states.
problem Efficiently modeling time series data with discrete latent states.
method A Markov chain-based model for training high-dimensional discrete latent data.
result Improved performance on time series datasets.
Develops VAEs for learning complex physical systems from data.
problem Learning low-dimensional representations of nonlinear physical systems.
method Variational Autoencoders with manifold latent spaces.
result Effective in learning nonlinear Burgers equation and constrained mechanical systems.
We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modeling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensional GP models in O(n) time and memory complexity. While existing literature has focused on the connection between GP regression …
Ensemble Kalman Filter improves GPSSM inference for online learning.
problem Non-mean-field variational inference issues in GPSSM.
method Combining EnKF with NMF variational inference.
result Improved online learning performance and data-fitting accuracy.
Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to find the member of this family that most closely approximates the exact posterior…
A new method for efficient inference in sequential latent-variable models.
problem Computational challenges in integrating subject-specific random effects.
method Anchored variational inference framework to approximate posterior distributions.
result The method achieves accurate estimation with significant computational gains.
A new method for Gaussian filtering using gradient flows and Wasserstein metrics.
problem Approximating Gaussian and mixture-of-Gaussians filtering for complex systems.
method Variational approximation via gradient-flow representation on Wasserstein metric space.
result Competitive performance in posterior representation and parameter estimation for systems with multiplicative noise and multi-modal distributions.
APo-VAE generates text in hyperbolic space for better hierarchical representation.
problem Lack of hierarchical structure in Euclidean embeddings for natural language.
method Adversarial Poincare Variational Autoencoder (APo-VAE) in hyperbolic latent space.
result APo-VAE outperforms Euclidean VAEs in capturing latent language hierarchies.