Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,694 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

2675348001,067 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for variational state estimation

Improved state estimation in nonlinear models using amortized backward variational inference.

problem State estimation in general state-space models.
method Amortized backward variational inference with neural network parameters.
result Linear growth of variational approximation error in number of observations.

Bayesian state and parameter estimation for nonlinear models using variational methods.

problem Estimating states and parameters for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational approach to approximate the intractable Bayesian distribution, resulting in an optimisation problem.
result The proposed method efficiently computes Bayesian estimates for nonlinear models, outperforming Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in numerical examples.

The paper analyzes variational autoencoders for state space models with risk bounds.

problem Analyzing the risk associated with variational autoencoders for state space models.
method Backward factorization of variational distributions to analyze excess risk, providing oracle inequalities and upper bounds.
result Explicit upper bounds on variational estimation error for state space models under strong mixing assumptions.

VSE estimates complex processes from noisy measurements without a model.

problem Estimating states of complex, model-free processes from noisy data.
method Variational state estimation using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in both learning and inference phases.
result VSE provides a competitive state estimate for a benchmark process (Lorenz system) compared to known and data-driven methods.

Paper addresses state estimation in sensor networks with intermittent data.

problem State estimation in sensor networks with packet dropouts and corrupted observations.
method Bayesian variational inference with a dual-mask generative model.
result The method effectively identifies system states and noise parameters.

Online method for state estimation and parameter learning in SSMs.

problem State estimation and parameter learning in state-space models.
method Stochastic gradient optimization of variational lower bound, using backward decompositions and Bellman recursions.
result Ability to operate online without revisiting historic observations.

New method for efficient online variational estimation in streaming data.

problem Efficiently estimating parameters and latent states in online parametric models.
method i.i.d. Monte Carlo sampling coupled with deep architecture.
result The method computes the evidence lower bound and its gradient efficiently.

Extends ESGVI for UWB localization with skewed noise, improving state estimation accuracy.

problem Improving state estimation accuracy in UWB localization with skewed noise.
method Generalizes ESGVI to matrix Lie groups and introduces non-Gaussian factors.
result Improved accuracy in UWB localization with NLOS and multipath effects.

Quantum state preparation framework speeds up basket option pricing.

problem Limited practical benefit of quantum amplitude estimation due to state-preparation depth.
method Structure-aware tensor-train rank-based variational state preparation.
result State-preparation depth scaling replaced with linear scaling, maintaining low basket-pricing errors.

A new method reduces variance in training discrete latent variable models.

problem High variance in stochastic gradient estimators for discrete latent variable models.
method Double control variates for score function estimators using Taylor expansions.
result Our method can have lower variance compared to other estimators.

New variational inference approach using Hilbert space for robotic state estimation.

problem Robotic state estimation with high-dimensional data.
method Variational inference reformulated in a Bayesian Hilbert space, using iterative projection.
result Variational inference can be seen as iterative projection in Euclidean space.

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable as it involves integrals of general nonlinear functions and the filtered and sm…

2020-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

VarGrad reduces variance in ELBO gradient estimation for variational inference.

problem Improving the variance of gradient estimators in variational inference.
method VarGrad uses a new log-variance loss to estimate the ELBO gradient, achieving lower variance than the score function method.
result VarGrad offers a lower variance gradient estimator compared to other methods.

Paper improves REINFORCE for VI without restrictive assumptions.

problem Improves REINFORCE for VI without restrictive assumptions.
method Introduces VIMCO-\star gradient estimator to overcome SNR collapse.
result VIMCO-\star achieves N\sqrt{N} SNR scaling, superior to existing VIMCO.

Paper improves variance control in importance weighted variational bounds.

problem Improving the variance of gradient estimators for IWAE.
method Develops a novel control variate that grows SNR as √K for large K.
result Empirically, the method yields superior variance reduction for generative models.

A new VIS approach improves log-likelihood estimation in latent variable models.

problem Challenges in achieving high log-likelihood with VI for complex posterior distributions.
method Uses forward χ2χ^2 divergence to optimize proposal distribution for better log-likelihood estimation.
result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in log-likelihood and parameter estimation.

We apply variational inference to learn vehicle trajectory parameters from noisy data.

problem Learning parameters for vehicle trajectory estimation from noisy measurements.
method Gaussian variational inference with parameter learning in a motion and sensor model context.
result High-quality state estimates achieved even with outliers and false loop closures.

VIR model improves regression accuracy and uncertainty estimation for imbalanced data.

problem Imbalanced regression datasets lead to poor model accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
method VIR model uses probabilistic smoothing and reweighting to estimate latent representations and uncertainty.
result VIR model outperforms state-of-the-art models in accuracy and uncertainty estimation.

Improved Kalman filtering with hierarchical variational approach.

problem Inconsistent process covariance estimation and slow convergence speed in traditional variational Kalman filtering.
method Introducing a surrogate variable for process-noise-free state, reformulating CAVI, and sliding-window hyperparameter estimation.
result Enhanced convergence speed and superior estimation accuracy compared to existing methods.

ETGPSSM efficiently models high-dimensional, non-stationary systems with reduced complexity.

problem Prohibitive computational and parametric complexity in high-dimensional, non-stationary dynamical systems.
method ETGPSSM integrates a single shared GP with input-dependent normalizing flows for scalable and flexible modeling.
result ETGPSSM outperforms existing models in computational efficiency and accuracy.

Proposes variational Gaussian approximations for solving the Kushner equation.

problem Solving the Kushner equation for state estimation with observations.
method Tractable variational Gaussian approximations of proximal losses based on Wasserstein and Fisher metrics.
result The proposed method leads to a Gaussian flow consistent with Kalman-Bucy and Riccati flows.

Learning latent variable models with stochastic variational inference is challenging when the approximate posterior is far from the true posterior, due to high variance in the gradient estimates. We propose a novel rejection sampling step that discards samples from the variational posterior which are assigned low likel…

2018-04-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates dependent parameters using Markovian dependence with shrinkage.

problem Estimating dependent parameters from a hidden Markov model.
method Developed a novel non-parametric shrinkage algorithm combining Tweedie-based ideas and efficient state estimation.
result Superior performance compared to non-shrinkage methods in hidden Markov models.

We study an extention of total variation denoising over images to over Cartesian power graphs and its applications to estimating non-parametric network models. The power graph fused lasso (PGFL) segments a matrix by exploiting a known graphical structure, GG, over the rows and columns. Our main results shows that for …

2018-05-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved UIVI method shows better performance than state-of-the-art SIVI methods.

problem Estimating the likelihood of samples from complex distributions in high dimensions.
method Replaced the inner MCMC loop of UIVI with importance sampling and learned the optimal proposal distribution.
result The refined UIVI approach demonstrates superior performance or parity with state-of-the-art methods.

The paper uses persistent homology to estimate recurrence times in multi-variate time series.

problem Estimating recurrence times in multi-variate time series with different cyclic behaviors.
method Persistent homology framework with three specialized methods.
result Validated methods on real-world data, including a new benchmark dataset.

We introduce the thermodynamic variational objective (TVO) for learning in both continuous and discrete deep generative models. The TVO arises from a key connection between variational inference and thermodynamic integration that results in a tighter lower bound to the log marginal likelihood than the standard variatio…

2019-06-28abs ↗pdf ↗

State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variati…

2018-11-20abs ↗pdf ↗