Variable renewables can avoid market value decline with policy changes.
problem Market value decline due to correlated generation from wind and solar.
method Theoretical analysis and simulation examples of market incentives and prices.
result Market value decline is due to policy assumptions, not inherent technology limitations.
Paper studies second order tail probabilities in risk models.
problem Analyzing tail probabilities in risk models with constant interest force.
method Asymptotic expansion and weighted Kesten-type inequality for second order subexponential random variables.
result Second order asymptotic formulae for continuous-time renewal risk models are derived.
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, ma…
Study shows increased VRE penetration reduces electricity prices and volatility.
problem Impact of increased variable renewable energy on electricity prices and volatility.
method Hourly, real-time data from six ISOs, quantile and skew t-distribution regressions.
result Increased VRE penetration is associated with decreased system electricity price and volatility in most ISOs.
The study finds that low frequency macroeconomic variables are more important for short-term electricity price forecasting.
problem Improving short-term forecasting of daily electricity prices using macroeconomic variables.
method Developed a Bayesian reverse unrestricted MIDAS model to account for frequency mismatch.
result Inclusion of macroeconomic low frequency variables improves short-term forecasts more than using only surveys or industrial production data.
Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind, exposes the power grid to more vulnerabilities, conceivably due to their variab…
Sparse oblique decision tree improves security rules for renewable power systems.
problem Identifying secure operating conditions in power systems with high renewable energy.
method Sparse weighted oblique decision tree to learn and embed linear security rules.
result The method significantly increases secure states and reduces solution time.
Statistical depth metrics help identify risky power grid scenarios.
problem Identifying extreme scenarios for risk mitigation in power grid planning.
method Functional depth metrics for sub-selecting outlying scenarios.
result The proposed approach effectively identifies risky scenarios for operational risk mitigation.
The paper models intraday power prices using fundamental drivers.
problem Lack of research on drivers for intraday price processes.
method Modelling location, shape, and scale of intraday price distribution using fundamental variables.
result Significant improvements in probabilistic forecasting performance, especially in tails.
Study on error probability for classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
problem Error probability in classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
method Asymptotic expressions for Bhattacharyya bound on misclassification error probabilities.
result Obtained asymptotic expressions for misclassification error probabilities.
Dynamic probabilistic forecasts guide optimal decisions in uncertain processes.
problem Optimal decision making in processes influenced by uncertain random factors.
method Stochastic models for probabilistic forecast evolution, calibrated from ensemble forecasts.
result Optimal decision strategies determined using dynamic probabilistic forecasts.
Paper introduces a neural framework for accurate energy forecasting.
problem Challenges of forecasting energy demand and supply due to variability of renewable sources and dynamic consumption patterns.
method Integrates Neural ODEs, graph attention, multi-resolution wavelet transformations, and adaptive learning of frequencies.
result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in various forecasting metrics across diverse datasets.
This paper forecasts renewable energy prospects in South America through cross-border interconnection.
problem Lack of renewable energy integration across South American countries.
method Long-term scenario forecasting methodology applied to raw data from typical countries.
result Promoting cross-border interconnection towards renewables can optimize energy supply, reduce costs, and balance the energy matrix.
Develops framework for valuing and assessing risk of renewable PPAs.
problem Valuation and risk assessment of non-standard renewable PPAs.
method Formalizes payoff structures, derives fair contract prices, proposes market risk-assessment methodology.
result Fair prices and risk profiles vary across technologies and contractual structures.
Proposes a pricing agent using reinforcement learning to balance renewable energy demand.
problem Intermittent renewable energy sources challenge carbon-free electricity generation.
method Reinforcement learning approach to balance customer demand with renewable energy generation.
result Demonstrates improved electricity pricing strategy for renewable energy integration.
MI-GAN solves OPF with renewable uncertainty using model-informed layers.
problem Optimal Power Flow (OPF) under renewable uncertainty.
method Model-Informed Generative Adversarial Network (MI-GAN) framework with three layers.
result MI-GAN improves solution feasibility and optimality.
Characterizes measures preserving compound mixed renewal process properties.
problem Preserving compound mixed renewal process properties under different probability measures.
method Characterization of progressively equivalent probability measures.
result Any compound mixed renewal process can be converted into a compound mixed Poisson process through a change of measures.
Inspired from recent insights into the common ground of machine learning, optimization and decision-making, this paper proposes an easy-to-implement, but effective procedure to enhance both the quality of renewable energy forecasts and the competitive edge of renewable energy producers in electricity markets with a dua…
This Ph.D. thesis deals with the optimization of several renewable energy resources development as well as the improvement of facilities management in oceanic engineering and airports, using computational hybrid methods belonging to AI to this end. Energy is essential to our society in order to ensure a good quality of…
Paper develops framework for valuing and assessing credit risk in renewable PPAs.
problem Renewable PPAs expose both parties to counterparty credit risk.
method Modelled joint dynamics of electricity prices and renewable output, incorporated default probabilities.
result Provides transparent metric for PPA valuation under counterparty risk.
Driven by climatic processes, wind power generation is inherently variable. Long-term simulated wind power time series are therefore an essential component for understanding the temporal availability of wind power and its integration into future renewable energy systems. In the recent past, mainly power curve based mod…
Optimizes renewable energy mix to meet carbon-free targets at lowest cost.
problem Minimizing annual procurement costs while achieving specified carbon-free hourly performance.
method Probabilistic framework with simulation scenarios and probability constraints. Fixed set of renewable generators and load customer.
result Demonstrated that certain renewable energy portfolios can meet carbon-free targets at lower costs compared to others.
Study builds dataset and benchmarks ML models for accurate solar and wind power forecasting in France.
problem Accurate prediction of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources for grid stability and price prediction.
method Comprehensive methodology using machine learning models trained with spatially explicit weather data and production site capacity.
result Neural networks outperform traditional models in forecasting solar and wind power production in France.
Proposes a new method to estimate variable importance in black box models, mitigating correlation effects.
problem Correlation between covariates affects the interpretation of variable importance parameters.
method Develops a modified LOCO (Leave Out COvariates) method and uses semiparametric models for estimation.
result Shows how to estimate a modified LOCO method that mitigates correlation effects.
The study finds that firm membership in flagship indices and TCFD endorsement are strong predictors of a wider Disclosure-Performance Gap.
problem The Aggregate Confusion hypothesis and the measurement of greenwashing in environmental disclosures.
method The study uses a Disclosure-Performance Gap (DPG) model to measure the divergence between voluntary environmental disclosures and realised emissions performance for 200 large European firms. The model selection process involved multiple stages and robust standard errors.
result Firm membership in flagship indices and TCFD endorsement are strong predictors of a wider gap, while renewable energy use and environmental capital expenditure significantly narrow the gap.
Model predicts sponsorship ROI using renewal probability.
problem Difficulty in measuring return on investment from sponsorships.
method Survival analysis using sponsorship renewal as proxy.
result Predicted values for sponsor's renewal probability and duration.
Paper benchmarks and customizes energy forecasting methods.
problem Energy forecasting challenges and differences from traditional time series.
method Collected large-scale load datasets and renewable energy datasets. Developed feature engineering and customized loss functions.
result Comprehensive evaluation of 21 forecasting methods in energy datasets.
In this study we model the warranty claims process and evaluate the warranty servicing costs under non-renewing and renewing free repair warranties. We assume that the repair time for rectifying the claims is non-zero and the repair cost is a function of the length of the repair time. To accommodate the ageing of the p…
The paper proposes a new method for probabilistic load forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows.
problem High variability in short-term load forecasting at the low-voltage level due to fluctuating demand and increasing electrification.
method Flexible conditional density forecasting based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows with neural network control.
result Density predictions outperform traditional methods for 24h-ahead load forecasting.
Modeling price formation in intraday electricity markets with renewable generation.
problem Price formation and optimal trading strategies in intraday electricity markets with intermittent renewable generation.
method Developed a tractable equilibrium model using stochastic control theory to identify optimal strategies and exhibit Nash equilibrium.
result Identified optimal trading strategies and exhibited Nash equilibrium in closed form for a finite number of agents and in the asymptotic framework of mean field games.
Deep learning improves weather modeling for electricity load forecasting.
problem Accurate load and renewable energy forecasting requires complex spatio-temporal weather modeling.
method Automated spatio-temporal feature extraction using deep neural networks.
result Deep learning outperforms traditional methods in French national load forecasting.
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
problem Calibrating parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses.
method Federated learning framework using Tweedie GLMs and distributed optimization.
result Federated learning recovers comparable index coefficients under moderate heterogeneity.
The increasing occurrence of ordinal data, mainly sociodemographic, led to a renewed research interest in ordinal regression, i.e. the prediction of ordered classes. Besides model accuracy, the interpretation of these models itself is of high relevance, and existing approaches therefore enforce e.g. model sparsity. For…
A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
problem Solving power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
method Non-parametric Bayesian inference-based uncertainty propagation using Gaussian Processes.
result The method provides reasonably accurate solutions with fewer samples and time compared to Monte-Carlo simulations.
Develops a method for probabilistic simulation of renewable energy production at grid scale.
problem Uncertainty in short-term electricity generation from renewable assets.
method Probabilistic framework with asset calibration, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussianization.
result Full uncertainty quantification at asset and collection levels.
In industrial data analytics, one of the fundamental problems is to utilize the temporal correlation of the industrial data to make timely predictions in the production process, such as fault prediction and yield prediction. However, the traditional prediction models are fixed while the conditions of the machines chang…
The paper analyzes MENA region's energy consumption and policy needs for renewable energy.
problem High dependency on oil and low renewable energy penetration in MENA region.
method Analysis of World Bank datasets and policy portfolio in MENA countries.
result MENA region has high potential for solar energy but faces challenges in decoupling economic growth from energy consumption.
Calculation of an optimal tariff is a principal challenge for pricing actuaries. In this contribution we are concerned with the renewal insurance business discussing various mathematical aspects of calculation of an optimal renewal tariff. Our motivation comes from two important actuarial tasks, namely a) construction …
Unified framework for intermittent demand forecasting using renewal processes.
problem Intermittency in demand forecasting.
method Unified framework based on extensions of discrete-time renewal processes.
result Efficacy demonstrated in forecasting practice with favorable predictive accuracy.
Ridge regression linked to Poisson resetting in statistical physics.
problem Understanding and extending ridge regularization in machine learning.
method Connecting stochastic resetting from statistical physics with ridge regularization in machine learning, using renewal processes.
result Exact filter identities for ridge regularization in various reset laws, including exponential and non-exponential.
We briefly review our recent studies on stochastic processes modelling internet on-line trading. We present a way to evaluate the average waiting time between the observation of the price in financial markets and the next price change, especially in an on-line foreign exchange trading service for individual customers v…
Fossil power firms have recently profited more than renewables, but this may be a temporary phenomenon.
problem The profitability gap between renewable and fossil power firms in Europe.
method Machine-learning clustering and Bayesian model averaging.
result Renewable power firms are becoming more profitable, while fossil power firms are becoming less so.
We analyze the data of the Italian and U.S. futures on the stock markets and we test the validity of the Continuous Time Random Walk assumption for the survival probability of the returns time series via a renewal aging experiment. We also study the survival probability of returns sign and apply a coarse graining proce…
The episodic, irregular and asynchronous nature of medical data render them difficult substrates for standard machine learning algorithms. We would like to abstract away this difficulty for the class of time-stamped categorical variables (or events) by modeling them as a renewal process and inferring a probability dens…
In this paper we develop a symbolic technique to obtain asymptotic expressions for ruin probabilities and discounted penalty functions in renewal insurance risk models when the premium income depends on the present surplus of the insurance portfolio. The analysis is based on boundary problems for linear ordinary differ…
Paper uses Gaussian processes to solve AC-OPF with renewable uncertainty.
problem Optimizing power grids with fluctuating renewable sources.
method Data-driven approach using Gaussian processes.
result Efficiently solves chance-constrained AC-OPF with uncertainty.
A framework uses deep reinforcement learning to optimize energy storage in intraday markets.
problem Optimizing energy storage in intraday markets for renewable energy integration.
method Markov Decision Process, asynchronous distributed fitted Q iteration algorithm, artificial trajectories.
result The agent converges to a policy that achieves higher total revenues than the benchmark strategy.
With the introduction of the variational autoencoder (VAE), probabilistic latent variable models have received renewed attention as powerful generative models. However, their performance in terms of test likelihood and quality of generated samples has been surpassed by autoregressive models without stochastic units. Fu…