A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A method estimates causal parameters using a latent variable recovery.
The paper studies geometric constants under modified Ricci flows with variable parameters.
New findings on Malgrange-Galois groupoid for Painlevé VI equation parameters.
New method selects variables for GP regression using sparse projection.
We extend the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), an asymptotic approximation for the marginal likelihood, to Bayesian networks with hidden variables. This approximation can be used to select models given large samples of data. The standard BIC as well as our extension punishes the complexity of a model according to …
New method improves uncertainty quantification in latent variable models.
Study identifies parameters in causal models with latent confounding.
Direct contextual policy search methods learn to improve policy parameters and simultaneously generalize these parameters to different context or task variables. However, learning from high-dimensional context variables, such as camera images, is still a prominent problem in many real-world tasks. A naive application o…
New neural network approach for optimizing latent variable models.
New method identifies latent variables with causal dependencies from observed data.
New bounds on continuous random variables' right-tail probabilities.
Penalized regression models are popularly used in high-dimensional data analysis to conduct variable selection and model fitting simultaneously. Whereas success has been widely reported in literature, their performances largely depend on the tuning parameters that balance the trade-off between model fitting and model s…
Bayesian models that mix multiple Dirichlet prior parameters, called Multi-Dirichlet priors (MD) in this paper, are gaining popularity. Inferring mixing weights and parameters of mixed prior distributions seems tricky, as sums over Dirichlet parameters complicate the joint distribution of model parameters. This paper s…
KIPLMC methods improve statistical inference in latent variable models.
Proposes a new method to estimate variable importance in black box models, mitigating correlation effects.
We consider a binary sequence generated by thresholding a hidden continuous sequence. The hidden variables are assumed to have a compound symmetry covariance structure with a single parameter characterizing the common correlation. We study the parameter estimation problem under such one-parameter models. We demonstrate…
Proposes a method to allocate time budgets in mixed criticality systems.
Methods to find correlation among variables are of interest to many disciplines, including statistics, machine learning, (big) data mining and neurosciences. Parameters that measure correlation between two variables are of limited utility when used with multiple variables. In this work, I propose a simple criterion to …
Particle MCMC involves using a particle filter within an MCMC algorithm. For inference of a model which involves an unobserved stochastic process, the standard implementation uses the particle filter to propose new values for the stochastic process, and MCMC moves to propose new values for the parameters. We show how p…
Bayesian networks with latent variables are characterized and their likelihoods compared.
This paper addresses parameter estimation for wave equations with Markovian switching.
Bayesian optimization adapted for experiments with changing environmental conditions.
Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance, carrying out the Bayesian program of computing the full posterior distributions over t…
Paper proposes a new method for Bayesian linear regression using spike-and-slab priors.
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
Paper introduces slow kill for efficient large-scale variable screening.
Derives PDEs from data using manifold learning and neural networks.
We study parameter inference in large-scale latent variable models. We first propose an unified treatment of online inference for latent variable models from a non-canonical exponential family, and draw explicit links between several previously proposed frequentist or Bayesian methods. We then propose a novel inference…
This paper presents the asymptotic behavior of a linear instrumental variables (IV) estimator that uses a ridge regression penalty. The regularization tuning parameter is selected empirically by splitting the observed data into training and test samples. Conditional on the tuning parameter, the training sample creates …
The parameters of temporal models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks, may be modelled in a Bayesian context as static or atemporal variables that influence transition probabilities at every time step. Particle filters fail for models that include such variables, while methods that use Gibbs sampling of parameter variab…
This paper proposes a novel learning method for multi-task applications. Multi-task neural networks can learn to transfer knowledge across different tasks by using parameter sharing. However, sharing parameters between unrelated tasks can hurt performance. To address this issue, we propose a framework to learn fine-gra…
Random variables of the generalized Pareto distribution, can be transformed to that of the Pareto distribution. Explicit expressions exist for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. The performance of the estimation of the shape parameter of generalized Pareto distributed using …
Ising models describe the joint probability distribution of a vector of binary feature variables. Typically, not all the variables interact with each other and one is interested in learning the presumably sparse network structure of the interacting variables. However, in the presence of latent variables, the convention…
Robust variable selection for high-dimensional data with missing and measurement errors.
We consider the problem of constructing a reduced-rank regression model whose coefficient parameter is represented as a singular value decomposition with sparse singular vectors. The traditional estimation procedure for the coefficient parameter often fails when the true rank of the parameter is high. To overcome this …
We present an integrated approach for structure and parameter estimation in latent tree graphical models. Our overall approach follows a "divide-and-conquer" strategy that learns models over small groups of variables and iteratively merges onto a global solution. The structure learning involves combinatorial operations…
New methods for estimating complex causal effects in econometrics.
Gradient matching with Gaussian processes is a promising tool for learning parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODE's). The essence of gradient matching is to model the prior over state variables as a Gaussian process which implies that the joint distribution given the ODE's and GP kernels is also Gaussian di…
We formulate and solve a tensor model using a latent-variable approach.
Proposes a new method for efficient model reconstruction with uncertain parameters.
Estimates and infers multi-stage stationary treatment policies with variable selection.
NeAda solves nonconvex minimax optimization by balancing primal and dual variables adaptively.
Lasso is a seminal contribution to high-dimensional statistics, but it hinges on a tuning parameter that is difficult to calibrate in practice. A partial remedy for this problem is Square-Root Lasso, because it inherently calibrates to the noise variance. However, Square-Root Lasso still requires the calibration of a t…
Framework for uncertainty estimation in training parameters.
Paper proves EM algorithm convergence for mixtures of discrete and continuous parameters.
Paper proposes EILLS for invariant linear regression across environments.
Variable selection for Gaussian process models is often done using automatic relevance determination, which uses the inverse length-scale parameter of each input variable as a proxy for variable relevance. This implicitly determined relevance has several drawbacks that prevent the selection of optimal input variables i…
Mathematical modeling with Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) has proven to be extremely successful in a variety of fields, including biology. However, these models are completely deterministic given a certain set of initial conditions. We convert mathematical ODE models of three benchmark biological systems to Dyn…