A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A neural network method for financial data nowcasting.
The topology of a power grid affects its dynamic operation and settlement in the electricity market. Real-time topology identification can enable faster control action following an emergency scenario like failure of a line. This article discusses a graphical model framework for topology estimation in bulk power grids (…
Neural Optimal Design of Experiments improves inverse problem solving efficiency.
Node2Grids uncouples GCN training for large graphs, saving memory and computation.
Extends geostatistical simulation method to handle multiple variables and large grids.
In this paper, we consider the numerical pricing of financial derivatives using Radial Basis Function generated Finite Differences in space. Such discretization methods have the advantage of not requiring Cartesian grids. Instead, the nodes can be placed with higher density in areas where there is a need for higher acc…
Graph-based state representation improves deep RL performance.
The architectures of deep neural networks (DNN) rely heavily on the underlying grid structure of variables, for instance, the lattice of pixels in an image. For general high dimensional data with variables not associated with a grid, the multi-layer perceptron and deep belief network are often used. However, it is freq…
The increasing complexity of the power grid, due to higher penetration of distributed resources and the growing availability of interconnected, distributed metering devices re- quires novel tools for providing a unified and consistent view of the system. A computational framework for power systems data fusion, based on…
Power system studies require the topological structures of real-world power networks; however, such data is confidential due to important security concerns. Thus, power grid synthesis (PGS), i.e., creating realistic power grids that imitate actual power networks, has gained significant attention. In this letter, we cas…
A simpler edge-based discretization method without dual volumes.
The paper examines linking numbers in grid models and finds polynomial moments.
We suggest a novel method of clustering and exploratory analysis of temporal event sequences data (also known as categorical time series) based on three-dimensional data grid models. A data set of temporal event sequences can be represented as a data set of three-dimensional points, each point is defined by three varia…
Accurate taxi demand-supply forecasting is a challenging application of ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems), due to the complex spatial and temporal patterns. We investigate the impact of different spatial partitioning techniques on the prediction performance of an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network, in the con…
The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources poses numerous reliability issues to the urban distribution grid. The topology estimation is a critical step to ensure the robustness of distribution grid operation. However, the bus connectivity and grid topology estimation are usually hard in distribution gri…
Statistical depth metrics help identify risky power grid scenarios.
Distribution grid is the medium and low voltage part of a large power system. Structurally, the majority of distribution networks operate radially, such that energized lines form a collection of trees, i.e. forest, with a substation being at the root of any tree. The operational topology/forest may change from time to …
WindDragon forecasts wind power with deep learning.
Bayesian deep learning improves geostatistical mapping with auxiliary data.
M-CaStLe discovers causal structures in multivariate space-time data.
RBMs model binary interactions with hidden node activation effects.
New model solves PDEs using probabilistic random grids.
New method identifies causal variables from multi-node interventions, expanding on previous single-node approaches.
Due to limited metering infrastructure, distribution grids are currently challenged by observability issues. On the other hand, smart meter data, including local voltage magnitudes and power injections, are communicated to the utility operator from grid buses with renewable generation and demand-response programs. This…
Improved covariate shift handling with node-based Bayesian neural networks.
Machine learning predicts CO2 emissions in power grids, reducing uncertainty.
A standard technique for understanding underlying dependency structures among a set of variables posits a shared conditional probability distribution for the variables measured on individuals within a group. This approach is often referred to as module networks, where individuals are represented by nodes in a network, …
The reparameterization trick enables optimizing large scale stochastic computation graphs via gradient descent. The essence of the trick is to refactor each stochastic node into a differentiable function of its parameters and a random variable with fixed distribution. After refactoring, the gradients of the loss propag…
A new approach models exploration in continuous-time RL using random measures.
In this paper, we investigate the significance of choosing an appropriate tessellation strategy for a spatio-temporal taxi demand-supply modeling framework. Our study compares (i) the variable-sized polygon based Voronoi tessellation, and (ii) the fixed-sized grid based Geohash tessellation, using taxi demand-supply GP…
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have achieved great success on grid-like data such as images, but face tremendous challenges in learning from more generic data such as graphs. In CNNs, the trainable local filters enable the automatic extraction of high-level features. The computation with filters requires a fixed …
We propose a dynamic network model where two mechanisms control the probability of a link between two nodes: (i) the existence or absence of this link in the past, and (ii) node-specific latent variables (dynamic fitnesses) describing the propensity of each node to create links. Assuming a Markov dynamics for both mech…
We propose a new static parameterization of the implied volatility surface which is constructed by using polynomials of sigmoid functions combined with some other terms. This parameterization is flexible enough to fit market implied volatilities which demonstrate smile or skew. An arbitrage-free calibration algorithm i…
Unified quadrature framework for large-scale kernel machines.
We present a new family of zero-field Ising models over binary variables/spins obtained by consecutive "gluing" of planar and -sized components and subsets of at most three vertices into a tree. The polynomial-time algorithm of the dynamic programming type for solving exact inference (computing partition func…
Graph data widely exist in many high-impact applications. Inspired by the success of deep learning in grid-structured data, graph neural network models have been proposed to learn powerful node-level or graph-level representation. However, most of the existing graph neural networks suffer from the following limitations…
New method smooths integrands for efficient option pricing.
Traditionally, most complex intelligence architectures are extremely non-convex, which could not be well performed by convex optimization. However, this paper decomposes complex structures into three types of nodes: operators, algorithms and functions. Iteratively, propagating from node to node along edge, we prove tha…
Anytime MiniBatch speeds up online distributed optimization by handling slow nodes.
Bayesian method models binary response and covariates for two groups, estimating causal relationships.
We extend path analysis by showing that, for a singly-connected path diagram, the partial covariance of two random variables factorizes over the nodes and edges in the path between the variables. This result allows us to determine the contribution of each node and edge to the partial covariance. It also allows us to sh…
DAG models with hidden variables present many difficulties that are not present when all nodes are observed. In particular, fully observed DAG models are identified and correspond to well-defined sets ofdistributions, whereas this is not true if nodes are unobserved. Inthis paper we characterize exactly the set of dist…
Enhances inference of spreading processes using neural-network priors.
LFGCN uses Levy Flights for graph semi-supervised learning.
New insights into data geometry reveal manifold structure in grid-cell activity.
The growing complexity of the power grid, driven by increasing share of distributed energy resources and by massive deployment of intelligent internet-connected devices, requires new modelling tools for planning and operation. Physics-based state estimation models currently used for data filtering, prediction and anoma…
GATs improve node regression on noisy graphs with provable advantage.
Study identifies latent variables and causal relationships from multiple environments.