A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper offers guidelines for validating data-driven models.
Generative models learn rules at different timescales, revealing a 'innovation window'.
Develops anytime-valid stopping rules for SGD based on observed trajectory.
Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.
In this article, the logic rule ensembles approach to supervised learning is applied to the unsupervised or semi-supervised clustering. Logic rules which were obtained by combining simple conjunctive rules are used to partition the input space and an ensemble of these rules is used to define a similarity matrix. Simila…
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for stable predictors in the context of risk assessment. The notion of stability has been first introduced by \cite{DEWA79} and extended by \cite{KEA95}, \cite{BE01} and \cite{KUNIY02} to characterize cla…
The 1/3 Financial Rule helps prevent household bankruptcy through balanced spending, savings, and debt repayment.
We consider a priori generalization bounds developed in terms of cross-validation estimates and the stability of learners. In particular, we first derive an exponential Efron-Stein type tail inequality for the concentration of a general function of n independent random variables. Next, under some reasonable notion of s…
Bootstrap aggregation, known as bagging, is one of the most popular ensemble methods used in machine learning (ML). An ensemble method is a ML method that combines multiple hypotheses to form a single hypothesis used for prediction. A bagging algorithm combines multiple classifiers modeled on different sub-samples of t…
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through -fold partitioning or leave-$p…
ScoreStop uses gradient tests to stop gradient boosting early.
Machine learning detects survey validity from user behavior.
CRL approach improves understanding of heterogeneous treatment effects in complex diseases.
Unified taxonomy for ML uncertainty in physics, validated.
Paper proposes a method for early stopping in regression using reproducing kernels.
The artificial neural network shows powerful ability of inference, but it is still criticized for lack of interpretability and prerequisite needs of big dataset. This paper proposes the Rule-embedded Neural Network (ReNN) to overcome the shortages. ReNN first makes local-based inferences to detect local patterns, and t…
This work provides a scaling rule for model EMA optimization across batch sizes.
We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of the covariance function of a Gaussian process by cross-validation. We suggest using new cross-validation criteria derived from the literature of scoring rules. We also provide an efficient method for computing the gradient of a cross-validation criterion. To the b…
Weighted SVM (or fuzzy SVM) is the most widely used SVM variant owning its effectiveness to the use of instance weights. Proper selection of the instance weights can lead to increased generalization performance. In this work, we extend the span error bound theory to weighted SVM and we introduce effective hyperparamete…
Proposes sparse local and regional counterfactual rules for robust recourses.
The Bayesian learning rule is a natural-gradient variational inference method, which not only contains many existing learning algorithms as special cases but also enables the design of new algorithms. Unfortunately, when variational parameters lie in an open constraint set, the rule may not satisfy the constraint and r…
This paper improves bandwidth selectors for SPBNs to enhance their performance.
In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for subagged estimators, both for classification and regressor. General loss functions and class of predictors with both finite and infinite VC-dimension are considered. We slightly generalize the formali…
Improves risk control in predictions using semi-supervised calibration.
Interpretable classifiers have recently witnessed an increase in attention from the data mining community because they are inherently easier to understand and explain than their more complex counterparts. Examples of interpretable classification models include decision trees, rule sets, and rule lists. Learning such mo…
Molecular graph generation is a fundamental problem for drug discovery and has been attracting growing attention. The problem is challenging since it requires not only generating chemically valid molecular structures but also optimizing their chemical properties in the meantime. Inspired by the recent progress in deep …
With the growing adoption of machine learning techniques, there is a surge of research interest towards making machine learning systems more transparent and interpretable. Various visualizations have been developed to help model developers understand, diagnose, and refine machine learning models. However, a large numbe…
Discrete structure rules for validating molecular structures are usually limited to fulfillment of the octet rule or similar simple deterministic heuristics. We propose a model, inspired by language modeling from natural language processing, with the ability to learn from a collection of undirected molecular graphs, en…
The paper proves generalization bounds and stopping rules for self-selected data in reciprocal learning.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.
Method measures weight similarity in neural networks using normalization and statistical inference.
DTOR explains anomalies with rule-based explanations.
We investigate the performance of dynamic portfolios constructed using more than 21,000 technical trading rules on 12 categorical and country-specific markets over the 2004-2015 study period, on rolling forward structures of different lengths. We also introduce a discrete false discovery rate (DFRD+/-) method for contr…
As a consequence of the dependence experienced in loan portfolios, the standard binomial test which is based on the assumption of independence does not appear appropriate for validating probabilities of default (PDs). The model underlying the new rules for minimum capital requirements (Basle II) is taken as a point of …
Survival regression method improves log-likelihood scores.
In regression problems, the use of TSK fuzzy systems is widely extended due to the precision of the obtained models. Moreover, the use of simple linear TSK models is a good choice in many real problems due to the easy understanding of the relationship between the output and input variables. In this paper we present FRU…
Introduces a rule-based Bayesian regression for better uncertainty quantification and expert knowledge integration.
Enhances multi-project scheduling with multiple priority rules.
New method improves model explainability and accuracy with low computational cost.
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
Algorithm identifies interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects.
Develops optimal decision-making framework for uncertain counterfactuals.
The strategy of early stopping is a regularization technique based on choosing a stopping time for an iterative algorithm. Focusing on non-parametric regression in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we analyze the early stopping strategy for a form of gradient-descent applied to the least-squares loss function. We pro…
Learning and memory in the brain are implemented by complex, time-varying changes in neural circuitry. The computational rules according to which synaptic weights change over time are the subject of much research, and are not precisely understood. Until recently, limitations in experimental methods have made it challen…
Active inference framework improves -statistic estimation efficiency.
Paper proves fair classification can be done via simple thresholding.