Adversarial meta-learning computes Gamma-minimax estimators for vague prior knowledge.
problem Estimating parameters with vague prior knowledge.
method Adversarial meta-learning algorithms for Gamma-minimax estimators.
result Convergence guarantees and neural network class for selection.
New model of vague knowledge without strict partitions or transitivity.
problem Standard economic models of information fail to capture real-world vague knowledge.
method Relaxing assumptions of transitivity and partition structure to formalize vague knowledge.
result Vague knowledge can distinguish some states but not partition the state space.
Analysts use vague language in reports to convey useful information about future payoffs.
problem Lack of precise numerical forecasts in analyst reports.
method Empirical analysis of analyst reports to assess the predictive power of linguistic tone.
result The textual tone of analyst reports has predictive power for forecast errors and subsequent revisions, especially when language is vague and uncertainty is high.
Review of priors in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem The importance of prior choices in Bayesian deep learning models.
method Overview of different priors and methods of learning priors from data.
result Motivate practitioners to think carefully about prior specification.
In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and improper noninformative priors to be objective in the elicitation of parameter prior…
New method samples Jeffreys prior for objective Bayesian inference.
problem Sampling from Jeffreys prior is challenging.
method Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm
result Samples can be directly used in Bayesian methods.
Proposes using prior variable importance information in high-dimensional regression.
problem Using vague prior information on variable importance in high-dimensional settings.
method Fit a sequence of models indicated by the prior importance orderings, using ridge or Lasso regression.
result Cross-validation can select the best estimator from a sequence of models, with a logarithmic cost compared to the unknown best.
Discusses geometry problems for fun and learning.
problem Geometry problems and their solutions.
method Not original, but related to differential geometry course.
result Relation to differential geometry course.
We have developed an efficient algorithm for the maximum likelihood joint tracking and association problem in a strong clutter for GMTI data. By using an iterative procedure of the dynamic logic process "from vague-to-crisp," the new tracker overcomes combinatorial complexity of tracking in highly-cluttered scenarios a…
We shall prove that under some volume growth condition, the essential spectrum of the Laplacian contains the interval [(n−1)2K/4,∞) if an n-dimensional Riemannian manifold has an end and the average of the part of the Ricci curvature on the end which lies below a nonpositive constant (n−1)K converges to ze…
Bayesian deep learning improves neural network accuracy and generalization.
problem Improving accuracy and calibration of deep neural networks.
method Bayesian marginalization and deep ensembles to approximate marginalization, and tempering for calibrating predictive distributions.
result Bayesian approaches improve deep neural networks' accuracy and generalization.
A dictionary connects symplectic to contact geometry, with applications to complex and G-structures.
problem Formalizing the relationship between symplectic and contact geometry.
method Developing a Symplectic-to-Contact Dictionary.
result The dictionary can be applied to complex and G-structures, revealing new geometries.
Random hyperbolic 3-manifolds can be obtained via Dehn surgery.
problem Understanding the generic properties of hyperbolic 3-manifolds.
method Counting model on links and Dehn surgeries.
result Random hyperbolic 3-manifolds can be obtained via Dehn surgery.
Study shows HFT benefits large traders under certain conditions.
problem Influence of high-frequency traders (HFTs) on large traders.
method Analyzes the impact of HFT front-running on large traders under different conditions.
result HFT benefits large traders when there is high-speed noise trading and vague HFT predictions.
In shape analysis, the concept of shape spaces has always been vague, requiring a case-by-case approach for every new type of shape. In this paper, we give a general definition for an abstract space of shapes in a manifold. This notion encompasses every shape space studied so far in the literature, and offers a rigorou…
The present work investigates whether different quantification mechanisms (set comparison, vague quantification, and proportional estimation) can be jointly learned from visual scenes by a multi-task computational model. The motivation is that, in humans, these processes underlie the same cognitive, non-symbolic abilit…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are known as black-box models. In other words, it is difficult to interpret the internal state of the model. Improving the interpretability of DNNs is one of the hot research topics. However, at present, the definition of interpretability for DNNs is vague, and the question of what is a high…
QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.
problem Predicting stock market movement in uncertain economic conditions.
method Used LSTM and QLSTM models on monthly data of economic indicators.
result QLSTM provided more accurate predictions of KSE 100 index values.
Unified framework for intersectionally fair AI models using MIO.
problem Bias in AI models for high-risk domains.
method Mixed-Integer Optimization (MIO) for fairness and interpretability.
result Improved performance in detecting and mitigating bias at intersections.
In an earlier paper we introduced rectangular diagrams of surfaces and showed that any isotopy class of a surface in the three-sphere can be presented by a rectangular diagram. Here we study transformations of those diagrams and introduce moves that allow transition between diagrams representing isotopic surfaces. We a…
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in recent years have made a dramatic impact in science, technology and industry, yet the theoretical mechanism of CNN architecture design remains surprisingly vague. The CNN neurons, including its distinctive element, convolutional filters, are known to be learnable features, yet th…
A complex-valued convolutional network (convnet) implements the repeated application of the following composition of three operations, recursively applying the composition to an input vector of nonnegative real numbers: (1) convolution with complex-valued vectors followed by (2) taking the absolute value of every entry…
For a long time, designing neural architectures that exhibit high performance was considered a dark art that required expert hand-tuning. One of the few well-known guidelines for architecture design is the avoidance of exploding gradients, though even this guideline has remained relatively vague and circumstantial. We …
New framework shows ERM is optimal for both interpolation and extrapolation in domain generalization.
problem Formalizing and solving the challenges of domain generalization.
method Reformulated domain generalization as an online game between a risk-minimizing player and an adversary.
result ERM is minimax-optimal for both interpolation and extrapolation in domain generalization.
Study finds no significant difference in neural network weights with quantum random numbers.
problem Effects of biased quantum random numbers on neural network initialization.
method Empirical study using quantum hardware and classical pseudo-random numbers.
result No statistically significant difference found between quantum random numbers and other types.
Recent advances in deep pose estimation models have proven to be effective in a wide range of applications such as health monitoring, sports, animations, and robotics. However, pose estimation models fail to generalize when facing images acquired from in-bed pressure sensing systems. In this paper, we address this chal…
DSNAS optimizes neural architecture and parameters in one step.
problem Poor correlation between architecture performance in two stages of NAS methods.
method Task-specific end-to-end approach with DSNAS framework.
result DSNAS discovers comparable accuracy networks in less time.
The paper tackles model collapse in GPLVMs by improving kernel flexibility and projection variance.
problem Model collapse in GPLVMs leading to vague latent representations.
method Theoretical analysis of projection variance, integration of SM and RFF kernels, and variational inference.
result The advisedRFLVM outperforms competing models in informative latent representations and missing data imputation.
Paper improves variational inference by tightening bounds using perturbation theory.
problem Improving variational inference's bias and KL divergence approximation.
method Revisits perturbation theory to derive corrections that tighten variational bounds.
result New bounds are tighter and more mass-covering, leading to higher likelihoods.
In this paper we use fuzzy systems theory to convert the technical trading rules commonly used by stock practitioners into excess demand functions which are then used to drive the price dynamics. The technical trading rules are recorded in natural languages where fuzzy words and vague expressions abound. In Part I of t…
Review of uncertainty representation methods in risk management.
problem Inadequate consideration of uncertainty in risk management.
method Systematic literature review of 370 publications.
result Probabilistic methods are predominant, but fuzzy and evidence-based approaches are also useful.
We introduce a simple combinatorial way, which we call a rectangular diagram of a surface, to represent a surface in the three-sphere. It has a particularly nice relation to the standard contact structure on S3 and to rectangular diagrams of links. By using rectangular diagrams of surfaces we are going, in p…
Paper proves convergence of warped product manifolds to a nonnegative scalar curvature limit.
problem Proving convergence of sequences of manifolds with nonnegative scalar curvature.
method Warped product manifolds with diverging circular fibers, proving convergence in W1,p sense. result Sequence converges to an extreme limit space with nonnegative scalar curvature.
Challenge evaluates semantic code search using annotated corpus.
problem Evaluating relevant code from natural language queries.
method Release of CodeSearchNet Corpus and expert annotations.
result 99 queries with 4k relevance annotations for evaluation.
Paper studies identifiability and stability of drifting fields in generative modeling.
problem Identify and stabilize drifting fields in generative modeling.
method Introduces companion-elliptic kernel families to address limitations of Laplace kernel.
result Establishes field identifiability and demonstrates scalar observables for weak convergence.
Fuzzy clustering with similarity queries improves efficiency and accuracy.
problem Clustering uncertain or vague datasets.
method Semi-supervised active clustering framework with oracle similarity queries.
result Polynomial-time approximation algorithm for fuzzy clustering with few similarity queries.
The paper explores identifiability and stability in drifting fields using companion-elliptic kernels.
problem Identifying and stabilizing drifting fields in generative modeling.
method Introduces companion-elliptic kernel families and analyzes their properties to address identifiability and stability issues.
result Established field identifiability for arbitrary Borel probability measures and demonstrated that field convergence alone does not guarantee weak convergence.
For non-smooth surfaces, the measure of Brownian loops is derived using the Polyakov-Alvarez formula.
problem Deriving the measure of Brownian loops on non-smooth surfaces.
method Using the Polyakov-Alvarez formula and heat kernel traces.
result The measure of Brownian loops on non-smooth surfaces is derived and shown to be uniform.
TadGAN detects anomalies in time series data using GANs and LSTM.
problem Challenges in detecting anomalies in time series data, especially without labeled data.
method TadGAN uses Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks to capture temporal correlations and compute anomaly scores.
result TadGAN outperforms 8 baseline methods in most cases, achieving the highest averaged F1 score.
A new Weyl prior is proposed for Bayesian statistics, offering a more canonical choice for parameter α.
problem Choosing a prior distribution for Bayesian inference.
method Proposed a new Weyl prior based on the Weyl structure on a statistical manifold.
result The Weyl prior is a special case of the α-parallel prior with α = -n, where n is the dimension of the statistical manifold.
Improves AI-prior reliability for Bayesian inference.
problem Error propagation from predictive models into posterior inference.
method Rectified AI-informed prior elicitation framework.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in predictive performance.
Informative Bayesian priors are often difficult to elicit, and when this is the case, modelers usually turn to noninformative or objective priors. However, objective priors such as the Jeffreys and reference priors are not tractable to derive for many models of interest. We address this issue by proposing techniques fo…
While Bayesian methods are praised for their ability to incorporate useful prior knowledge, in practice, convenient priors that allow for computationally cheap or tractable inference are commonly used. In this paper, we investigate the following question: for a given model, is it possible to compute an inference result…
New AI stock indices classify firms' AI engagement using 10-K filings.
problem Opaque AI selection criteria in existing ETFs.
method NLP analysis of 10-K filings to classify AI stocks.
result Companies with higher AI engagement have greater positive returns.
Researchers derive exact priors for finite Bayesian neural networks.
problem Understanding non-Gaussian priors in finite Bayesian neural networks.
method Analytical derivation of function space priors for finite fully-connected feedforward networks.
result Exact solutions for priors of finite networks, including Meijer G-function for linear networks and mixtures for ReLU networks.
PRCD-MAP learns to trust imperfect priors in causal discovery, improving accuracy and robustness.
problem Tackles the brittle trade-off between blind trust and rejection of external priors in causal discovery.
method Proposes PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to imperfect priors and modulates regularization in a MAP objective.
result Enjoys a population-level safety guarantee and outperforms existing methods on real-world causal discovery tasks.
Bayesian metalearning improves performance in linear bandits with misspecified priors.
problem Improper priors lead to suboptimal performance in sequential decision-making.
method Proves performance bounds for metalearning priors in stochastic linear bandits and develops a metalearning algorithm.
result Metalearning can improve performance by learning the prior from multiple tasks.
The paper extends and applies a new shrinkage prior in Bayesian factor analysis.
problem Estimating the number of factors in sparse Bayesian factor analysis.
method Introduces and extends a generalized cumulative shrinkage process (CUSP) prior.
result Exchangeable spike-and-slab shrinkage priors imply increasing shrinkage as the column index increases.