We give a general formulation of the utility maximization problem under nondominated model uncertainty in discrete time and show that an optimal portfolio exists for any utility function that is bounded from above. In the unbounded case, integrability conditions are needed as nonexistence may arise even if the value fu…
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48 results for “utility needs”
Study finds 'happiness' search data predicts stock returns, suggesting utility needs impact firm performance.
problem Investing in firms that meet societal utility needs.
method Used Google Trends data on 'happiness' search volume to predict stock returns.
result Happiness search exposure (HSE) explains future stock returns, particularly for big and value firms.
The paper suggests using derivatives instead of stocks for better utility and risk management.
problem The use of stocks in portfolio construction is challenged.
method The study uses the Black--Scholes--Merton setting to demonstrate the benefits of derivatives for maximizing utility and minimizing risk.
result Two derivatives are sufficient to maximize utility and minimize risk exposure in a two-asset portfolio.
The paper proposes a method to learn the structure of continuous-action games with non-parametric utilities using a limited number of samples.
problem Learning the exact structure of continuous-action games with non-parametric utility functions.
method An regularized method that encourages sparsity of the Fourier transform coefficients of the utility functions, accessed via a few Nash equilibria and their noisy utilities.
result The method recovers the exact structure of the utility functions and the game structure with provable theoretical guarantees.
GBC methods compute expected utility without needing the model's density.
problem Computing expected utility in complex models.
method Density-free generative method using quantile neural estimator.
result Efficient estimation of expected utility from simulated data.
Portfolio Construction with Gaussian Mixture Returns and Exponential Utility via Convex Optimizationmath.OC
Optimizes portfolios with GM returns using convex optimization.
problem Maximizing expected exponential utility with GM asset returns.
method Formulated as a convex optimization problem.
result Optimal solutions found without sampling or scenarios.
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but thei…
Novel framework for portfolio selection considering utility and risk.
problem Maximizing utility subject to risk constraints with various utility and risk functionals.
method General framework accommodating non-concave utilities and non-convex risk measures. Characterization of well-posedness using a simple either-or criterion.
result Minimal condition for well-posedness: either utility or risk must be sensitive to large losses.
Closed-form optimal portfolios for exponential utility in small/large markets.
problem Optimal portfolios maximizing exponential utility in small/large financial markets.
method Closed-form expressions for optimal portfolios in small markets, convergence to large market optimal utility, numerical procedure for general utility functions.
result Optimal utility in large markets converges to optimal utility in small markets, requiring infinite diversification.
We consider a utility-maximization problem in a general semimartingale financial model, subject to constraints on the number of shares held in each risky asset. These constraints are modeled by predictable convex-set-valued processes whose values do not necessarily contain the origin; that is, it may be inadmissible fo…
The need for diversification of recommendation lists manifests in a number of recommender systems use cases. However, an increase in diversity may undermine the utility of the recommendations, as relevant items in the list may be replaced by more diverse ones. In this work we propose a novel method for maximizing the u…
Study assesses how much security restaking protocols need to pay for.
problem Determining the optimal security level for restaking protocols using token incentives.
method Expanding a model by Durvasula and Roughgarden to include strategic attackers and node operators, constructing an approximation algorithm for token-based incentives.
result Restaking protocols can be secure with proper incentive management, even against strategic adversaries.
Paper establishes utility theory for synthetic data generation.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding in synthetic data utility.
method Statistical learning framework with two utility metrics: generalization and model ranking.
result Theoretical bounds for synthetic data utility metrics ensure comparable generalization and consistent model comparison.
Consequential decisions are increasingly informed by sophisticated data-driven predictive models. However, to consistently learn accurate predictive models, one needs access to ground truth labels. Unfortunately, in practice, labels may only exist conditional on certain decisions---if a loan is denied, there is not eve…
Resource Allocation for a Wireless Coexistence Management System Based on Reinforcement Learningeess.SP
In industrial environments, an increasing amount of wireless devices are used, which utilize license-free bands. As a consequence of these mutual interferences of wireless systems might decrease the state of coexistence. Therefore, a central coexistence management system is needed, which allocates conflict-free resourc…
Study optimizes financial strategies in markets with uncertain drift.
problem Optimizing portfolios in markets with unpredictable drift.
method Combines worst-case optimization with filtering techniques to define uncertainty sets.
result Proves minimax theorem and derives optimal strategies for continuous updates.
Right Decisions from Wrong Predictions: A Mechanism Design Alternative to Individual Calibrationstat.ML
Proposes a compensation mechanism for improving individual forecast confidence.
problem Difficult to assess the quality of individual probabilistic forecasts and their utilities.
method Compensation mechanism based on fair bets and online learning.
result The proposed mechanism cannot be exploited and ensures forecasted utility matches actual utility.
Bayesian Parametric Portfolio Policies corrects overestimation of utility and risk in traditional PPP.
problem Traditional Parametric Portfolio Policies ignore policy risk, leading to overestimation of expected utility and understatement of portfolio risk.
method Developed Bayesian Parametric Portfolio Policies (BPPP) by placing a prior on policy coefficients to correct the decision rule.
result BPPP delivers higher Sharpe ratios, lower turnover, larger investor welfare, and lower tail risk compared to traditional PPP.
Paper evaluates synthetic retail data for fidelity, utility, and privacy.
problem Ensuring accurate synthetic data in retail.
method Differentiates between continuous and discrete data, measures fidelity and utility, and uses Differential Privacy for privacy.
result Validated framework for reliable and scalable synthetic data evaluation.
In this paper, we construct the utility-based optimal hedging strategy for a European-type option in the Almgren-Chriss model with temporary price impact. The main mathematical challenge of this work stems from the degeneracy of the second order terms and the quadratic growth of the first order terms in the associated …
Most decision theories, including expected utility theory, rank dependent utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, assume that investors are only interested in the distribution of returns and not in the states of the economy in which income is received. Optimal payoffs have their lowest outcomes when the economy …
Healthcare data continues to flourish yet a relatively small portion, mostly structured, is being utilized effectively for predicting clinical outcomes. The rich subjective information available in unstructured clinical notes can possibly facilitate higher discrimination but tends to be under-utilized in mortality pred…
Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular …
A Problem of Finite-Horizon Optimal Switching and Stochastic Control for Utility Maximizationmath.OC
Paper tackles utility maximization with job-switching and retirement constraints.
problem Maximizing utility with job-switching and retirement constraints.
method Dual-martingale approach and double obstacle problem theory.
result Characterization of optimal job-switching strategy and wealth boundaries.
Assessing the predictive accuracy of black box classifiers is challenging in the absence of labeled test datasets. In these scenarios we may need to rely on a human oracle to evaluate individual predictions; presenting the challenge to create query algorithms to guide the search for points that provide the most informa…
Study shows privacy and utility trade-offs in synthetic data models, impacting fairness and real-world performance.
problem Understanding the impact of differential privacy on fairness and model performance in synthetic data.
method Systematic analysis of differentially private synthetic datasets on classification models, measuring utility and bias using fairness metrics.
result More privacy does not necessarily mean more bias, but it can affect model performance when deployed on real data.
Paper addresses data heterogeneity in federated learning for CoxPH models in healthcare.
problem Data heterogeneity in federated learning of CoxPH models for healthcare.
method Feature-based clustering and event-based reporting strategy.
result Enhanced model accuracy and performance in federated survival analysis.
Framework optimizes targeting high-need individuals while estimating treatment effects.
problem Balancing resource allocation to high-need individuals with evaluating treatment effects.
method Proposes a framework to design randomized allocation rules that balance targeting high-need recipients with learning treatment effects.
result Optimized policies can significantly mitigate the tradeoff between targeting high-need individuals and estimating treatment effects.
Improved vector quantization using Gaussian mixtures for better codebook utilization.
problem Training instability and information loss in discrete vector quantization.
method Generalized vector quantization with Gaussian mixture model and aggregated categorical posterior evidence lower bound.
result GM-VQ improves codebook utilization and reduces information loss without heuristics.
As machine learning becomes more pervasive, there is an urgent need for interpretable explanations of predictive models. Prior work has developed effective methods for visualizing global model behavior, as well as generating local (instance-specific) explanations. However, relatively little work has addressed regional …
The paper proposes using density ratio estimation to evaluate synthetic data quality.
problem Improving the quality and utility of synthetic data for analysis.
method Density ratio estimation to measure synthetic data quality.
result Density ratio estimation yields more accurate global utility estimates than existing methods.
Develops a Bayesian framework for portfolio choice with a new posterior distribution.
problem Estimation risk in parametric portfolio policies.
method Generalized Bayesian framework with Gibbs posterior, utility maximization, and KNEEDLE algorithm.
result Optimal scaling parameter controls the balance between prior and data.
Probabilistic models can handle causal inference without special tools.
problem Confusion over necessary tools for causal inference.
method Demonstrated through concrete examples that causal questions can be answered using standard probabilistic models.
result Causal questions can be addressed using standard probabilistic modelling and inference.
One obstacle to the use of Gaussian processes (GPs) in large-scale problems, and as a component in deep learning system, is the need for bespoke derivations and implementations for small variations in the model or inference. In order to improve the utility of GPs we need a modular system that allows rapid implementatio…
Differential privacy has emerged as a gold standard in privacy-preserving data analysis. A popular variant is local differential privacy, where the data holder is the trusted curator. A major barrier, however, towards a wider adoption of this model is that it offers a poor privacy-utility tradeoff. In this work, we add…
We apply Geometric Arbitrage Theory to obtain results in Mathematical Finance, which do not need stochastic differential geometry in their formulation. First, for a generic market dynamics given by a multidimensional Itô's process we specify and prove the equivalence between (NFLVR) and expected utility maximization. A…
Federated Learning (FL) proposed in recent years has received significant attention from researchers in that it can bring separate data sources together and build machine learning models in a collaborative but private manner. Yet, in most applications of FL, such as keyboard prediction, labeling data requires virtually…
Investing for the Long Runq-fin.PM
This paper studies long term investing by an investor that maximizes either expected utility from terminal wealth or from consumption. We introduce the concepts of a generalized stochastic discount factor (SDF) and of the minimum price to attain target payouts. The paper finds that the dynamics of the SDF needs to be c…
Whenever a social media user decides to share a story, she is typically pleased to receive likes, comments, shares, or, more generally, feedback from her followers. As a result, she may feel compelled to use the feedback she receives to (re-)estimate her followers' preferences and decides which stories to share next to…
Computational limitations require more model parameters for robust learning.
problem Computational constraints affect the number of parameters needed for robust learning.
method Analyzes computational limitations and their impact on model size for robust learning.
result Computational bounded learners need significantly more parameters for robust learning.
Unraveling the Trade-off between Sustainability and Returns: A Multivariate Utility Analysisq-fin.PM
The paper analyzes how ESG investors can prioritize green stocks without sacrificing overall wealth.
problem Balancing sustainability goals with financial returns.
method Multivariate utility analysis with a one-factor CAPM structure.
result Investors can allocate more to high-rated ESG stocks without reducing overall wealth.
Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hed…
The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal inference studies may require unobserved high-level information which needs to be …
A new method calculates optimal decisions from classifier outputs, improving predictions in drug discovery.
problem Finding optimal decisions from classifier outputs in fields like medicine.
method Develops a transducer that calculates probabilities from classifier outputs, enabling expected-utility maximization.
result Improves prediction accuracy in drug discovery problems, sometimes close to theoretical maximum.
Develops a two-stage conformal prediction method for Parkinson's disease medication needs.
problem Heterogeneous disease progression and treatment response in Parkinson's Disease.
method Two-stage conformal prediction framework with statistical guarantees.
result Quantifies uncertainty in medication needs predictions, improving clinical trust and quality of life.
Estimates boundaries for acceptable bilateral gamma risk in financial markets.
problem Determining the compensation needed for risky future cash flows to be considered acceptable.
method Statistical inference from market prices and derivatives, using prospect theory.
result Upper and lower boundaries for bilateral gamma risk are estimated and tested against market data.
New algorithm for reinforcement learning reduces complexity and guarantees convergence.
problem Reinforcement learning problems with convex occupancy measures.
method MD-CURL, inspired by mirror descent, uses non-standard regularization.
result Achieves convergence guarantees and simple closed-form solution.
GitHub has become an important platform for code sharing and scientific exchange. With the massive number of repositories available, there is a pressing need for topic-based search. Even though the topic label functionality has been introduced, the majority of GitHub repositories do not have any labels, impeding the ut…