Proposes a new criterion for selecting Nash equilibria considering both utility and inequality.
problem Finding a fair Nash equilibrium in group decision-making.
method Introduces entropy-norm space for geometric selection of strict Nash equilibria.
result The closest entropy-norm pair to the largest entropy-norm pair in rescaled space is the most suitable equilibrium.
The Mean-Variance Criterion is equivalent to Second-order Stochastic Dominance under symmetric Elliptical distributions.
problem Determining the equivalence of Mean-Variance Criterion and Stochastic Dominance Criteria.
method Analyzing under symmetric and Skew-Elliptical distributions using Monte Carlo simulations.
result The Mean-Variance Criterion does not coincide with Second-order Stochastic Dominance for some types of risk-averse investors.
The Kelly Criterion is applied to prediction markets to analyze risk and return.
problem Mean beliefs in prediction markets often differ from actual prices.
method Logarithmic utility and Kullback-Leibler divergence are used to study risk and return adjustments.
result Misjudgment of bias and investment fraction affect portfolio growth rate.
New optimization method for portfolio management maximizing wealth and utility with risk control.
problem Maximizing terminal wealth and utility with mean-variance risk control.
method Transformed into a single-objective problem using overall happiness, solved in game theoretic framework.
result Closed-form solutions for specific utility functions reveal new optimal investment strategies.
We aim to generalize the results of Cai and Nitta (2007) by allowing both the utility and production function to depend on time. We also consider an additional intertemporal optimality criterion. We clarify the conditions under which the limit of the solutions for the finite horizon problems is optimal among all attain…
Proposes a stability evaluation criterion for learning models using distributional perturbations.
problem Ensuring reliable deployment of learning models in out-of-sample environments.
method Uses optimal transport discrepancy with moment constraints to quantify minimal perturbation required for model deterioration.
result Validates the practical utility of the stability evaluation criterion across various real-world applications.
The paper optimizes pension policies with guarantees and sustainability constraints.
problem Designing optimal pension policies with guarantees and sustainability constraints.
method Dynamic utility model, stochastic domain, overlapping generations, time-consistent decision criterion.
result Optimal investment/pension policy computed for a general framework.
Optimizes portfolios with utility theory, diversification, and leverage.
problem Finding optimal portfolio allocation strategies.
method Utility theory, exponential and logarithmic utilities, compound probability distributions, maximum expected utility, generalized mean-variance.
result Enhanced portfolio allocation strategies with natural explanations.
Optimal reinsurance contracts for multiple dependent risks are derived without specific dependency assumptions.
problem Finding optimal reinsurance contracts for multiple dependent risks without assuming their dependency structure.
method Assumes maximal expected utility criterion and independent negotiation of reinsurance for each risk. Derives optimality conditions and shows that under mild assumptions, optimal contracts are classical (non-randomized) type.
result Optimal reinsurance contracts exist and can be classical (non-randomized) type under mild assumptions.
We study exceptional quotient singularities. In particular, we prove an exceptionality criterion in terms of the α-invariant of Tian, and utilize it to classify four-dimensional and five-dimensional exceptional quotient singularities.
Motivated by recent axiomatic developments, we study the risk- and ambiguity-averse investment problem where trading takes place over a fixed finite horizon and terminal payoffs are evaluated according to a criterion defined in terms of a quasiconcave utility functional. We extend to the present setting certain existen…
Kelly investing improved with options to reduce estimation risk.
problem Estimation risk in Kelly investing leads to suboptimal portfolios.
method Introduced European options into the Kelly framework in a binomial model.
result Constructed growth optimal portfolios robust to estimation risk.
New analysis shows interpretability doesn't guarantee steering utility in LLMs.
problem Does higher interpretability lead to better steering utility in large language models?
method Trained 90 SAEs across three LLMs, evaluated interpretability and steering utility, used Kendall's rank coefficients for analysis.
result Interpretability is only weakly associated with steering utility, and features selected by Delta Token Confidence improve steering performance.
Develops a new criterion for subgroup fairness in algorithmic decision support.
problem Identifying fair recommendations in algorithms despite group-level differences.
method IJDI criterion and IJDI-Scan approach to detect and mitigate disparities.
result Identifies significant disparities in recommendations across subpopulations.
This paper optimizes sports betting strategies using neural networks and portfolio theory.
problem Optimizing betting strategies in sports gambling.
method Combining neural network models with portfolio optimization, integrating Von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory and the Kelly Criterion.
result Achieved 135.8% relative profit during the English Premier League season.
We consider a popular model of microeconomics with countably many assets: the Arbitrage Pricing Model. We study the problem of optimal investment under an expected utility criterion and look for conditions ensuring the existence of optimal strategies. Previous results required a certain restrictive hypothesis on the ta…
This paper considers portfolio construction in a dynamic setting. We specify a loss function comprised of utility and complexity components with an unknown tradeoff parameter. We develop a novel regret-based criterion for selecting the tradeoff parameter to construct optimal sparse portfolios over time.
For a stochastic factor model we maximize the long-term growth rate of robust expected power utility with parameter λ∈(0,1). Using duality methods the problem is reformulated as an infinite time horizon, risk-sensitive control problem. Our results characterize the optimal growth rate, an optimal long-term trading s…
Optimizes information acquisition to reduce estimation risk and maximize utility.
problem Estimation risk in investor decision-making.
method Derives closed-form value functions using CARA and CRRA utility functions, employs variational methods to explore optimal acquisition.
result Acquiring information earlier is more valuable in reducing estimation risk and achieving higher utility.
GBC methods compute expected utility without needing the model's density.
problem Computing expected utility in complex models.
method Density-free generative method using quantile neural estimator.
result Efficient estimation of expected utility from simulated data.
Statistical inference is considered for variables of interest, called primary variables, when auxiliary variables are observed along with the primary variables. We consider the setting of incomplete data analysis, where some primary variables are not observed. Utilizing a parametric model of joint distribution of prima…
Advocates focusing on utility functions to avoid unfair outcomes.
problem Unfair outcomes from fairness criteria in optimizing policies.
method Defines value of information fairness and proposes modifying utility functions.
result Value of information fairness leads to better answers than existing fairness notions.
LS improves model selection for singular statistical models.
problem Challenges in model selection for singular statistical models.
method Integrates empirical loss from WAIC and sBIC penalty term.
result Enhanced utility for model selection without regularity constraints.
Investigates optimal consumption and investment strategies with constraints in incomplete markets.
problem Optimal consumption and investment under constraints in incomplete markets.
method Characterizes optimal strategies via a quadratic BSDE, using martingale optimality criterion and Lyapunov functions.
result Obtains the verification theorem for optimal strategies in unbounded cases.
Novel framework for portfolio selection considering utility and risk.
problem Maximizing utility subject to risk constraints with various utility and risk functionals.
method General framework accommodating non-concave utilities and non-convex risk measures. Characterization of well-posedness using a simple either-or criterion.
result Minimal condition for well-posedness: either utility or risk must be sensitive to large losses.
Decision-alignment evaluates uncertainty quantification for decision-relevant UQ
problem Evaluation of uncertainty quantification metrics
method Introduce decision-alignment
result Proper scoring rules align with decision utility
Investigates optimal pension policies in PAYG systems with forward utility and ageing population.
problem Optimal investment and pension policies in PAYG systems with sustainability and adequacy constraints.
method Non-zero volatility forward CRRA utilities, closed-form optimal policies, detailed numerical analysis.
result Characterization of optimal policies and detailed impact analysis under various scenarios.
Study optimizes fairness in predictive models by balancing utility and separation.
problem Balancing fairness and utility in predictive models.
method Information-theoretic approach using conditional mutual information (CMI).
result Reduces separation violations while maintaining or improving utility.
In the field of multi-objective optimization algorithms, multi-objective Bayesian Global Optimization (MOBGO) is an important branch, in addition to evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithms (EMOAs). MOBGO utilizes Gaussian Process models learned from previous objective function evaluations to decide the nex…
Optimal portfolios are found for a wide range of utility functions under hyperbolic returns.
problem Portfolio optimization under expected utility criterion for large portfolios.
method Analytical expressions for optimal portfolios under hyperbolic return distributions and various utility functions.
result The two-fund separation holds true for a broad class of utility functions.
Develops a framework for cost-efficient Bayesian optimization with constraints.
problem Optimizing designs with minimal cost in constrained search spaces.
method Constrained multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (CMFBO) with automatic stopping criterion.
result Minimizes overall sampling costs while ensuring feasibility.
New methods estimate causal effects using front-door criterion in presence of unmeasured confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects in observational studies with unmeasured confounders.
method Developed novel one-step and targeted minimum loss-based estimators for front-door assumptions.
result Established conditions for root-n consistency and asymptotic linearity.
The paper automates policy learning for nonlinear welfare criteria using machine learning and debiasing techniques.
problem Learning optimal policies from observational data with nonlinear welfare criteria.
method Modeling a nonlinear welfare criterion with a utility function, estimating propensity scores with machine learning, and using sieve approximations and cross-validation for model selection.
result The proposed policy learning method satisfies oracle inequalities, providing theoretical guarantees on performance.
Global optimization of expensive functions has important applications in physical and computer experiments. It is a challenging problem to develop efficient optimization scheme, because each function evaluation can be costly and the derivative information of the function is often not available. We propose a novel globa…
This paper solves robust utility maximization with unknown claim dependencies.
problem Investor optimizes utility in the presence of an intractable contingent claim.
method Quantile optimization approach, transforming dynamic problem into static concave optimization.
result Optimal payoffs depend on ambiguity attitude, market conditions, and claim characteristics.
Proof confirms cosmic censorship for charged gravitational collapse.
problem Cosmic censorship for Einstein-Maxwell-Charged Scalar Field system.
method Systematic approach to incorporate charge and complex scalar field, new trapped surface criterion, modified BV area estimates, and new instability theorems.
result Cosmic censorship holds for charged gravitational collapse.
This paper formulates and studies a general continuous-time behavioral portfolio selection model under Kahneman and Tversky's (cumulative) prospect theory, featuring S-shaped utility (value) functions and probability distortions. Unlike the conventional expected utility maximization model, such a behavioral model could…
A major challenge in cluster analysis is that the number of data clusters is mostly unknown and it must be estimated prior to clustering the observed data. In real-world applications, the observed data is often subject to heavy tailed noise and outliers which obscure the true underlying structure of the data. Consequen…
We propose a framework for studying optimal market making policies in a limit order book (LOB). The bid-ask spread of the LOB is modelled by a Markov chain with finite values, multiple of the tick size, and subordinated by the Poisson process of the tick-time clock. We consider a small agent who continuously submits li…
Bernard et al. (2015) study an optimal insurance design problem where an individual's preference is of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) type, and show that in general an optimal contract covers both large and small losses. However, their contracts suffer from a problem of moral hazard for paying more compensation for a…
The paper suggests using derivatives instead of stocks for better utility and risk management.
problem The use of stocks in portfolio construction is challenged.
method The study uses the Black--Scholes--Merton setting to demonstrate the benefits of derivatives for maximizing utility and minimizing risk.
result Two derivatives are sufficient to maximize utility and minimize risk exposure in a two-asset portfolio.
This article is the term paper of the course Investments. We mainly focus on modeling long-term investment decisions of a typical utility-maximizing individual, with features of Chinese stock market in perspective. We adopt an OR based methodology with market information as input parameters to carry out the solution. T…
In this paper, we explore the theme of orbifold stratified spaces and establish a general criterion for them to be smooth orbifolds. This criterion utilizes the notion of linear stratification on the gluing bundles for the orbifold stratified spaces. We introduce a concept of good gluing structure to ensure a smooth st…
This paper studies how to capture dependency graph structures from real data which may not be Gaussian. Starting from marginal loss functions not necessarily derived from probability distributions, we utilize an additive over-parametrization with shrinkage to incorporate variable dependencies into the criterion. An ite…
We study optimal investment problem for a diffusion market consisting of a finite number of risky assets (for example, bonds, stocks and options). Risky assets evolution is described by Ito's equation, and the number of risky assets can be larger than the number of driving Brownian motions. We assume that the risk-free…
The paper optimizes forecasting for risk-adjusted decisions under trading frictions.
problem Optimizing forecasting accuracy for investment decisions in the presence of transaction costs.
method Develops a utility-weighted calibration criterion to minimize decision loss net of costs.
result Utility-weighted calibration reduces decision loss by over 30% and improves Sharpe ratio.
Expands Bayesian experiment design framework to account for model discrepancies.
problem Model misspecification in Bayesian optimal experiment design.
method Introduces Expected General Information Gain and Expected Discriminatory Information criteria.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and detection capabilities in experiment design.
Bayesian DOE accelerates experimental design with improved efficiency.
problem Enhancing experimental design efficiency and reliability.
method Bayesian framework, conditional density estimation, informative data selection.
result Significantly improved computational efficiency of experimental design.