Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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132263395526 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for usage prediction

Proposes AtCoR for predicting bike station usage, improving station network reconfiguration.

problem Challenges in predicting new bike stations due to lack of historical data.
method AtCoR algorithm that predicts both existing and new bike stations using station-centered heatmaps and historical correlations.
result AtCoR outperforms existing models in predicting bike station usage.

Method predicts hardware resource usage by control software with guaranteed linear convergence.

problem Predicting time-varying hardware resource availability in control software.
method Path structured multimarginal Schrödinger bridge (MSBP) for learning stochastic resource usage.
result Guaranteed linear convergence to accurate prediction of hardware resource utilization.

Electric vehicles (EVs) have been gaining popularity due to their environmental friendliness and efficiency. EV charging station networks are scalable solutions for supporting increasing numbers of EVs within modern electric grid constraints, yet few tools exist to aid the physical configuration design of new networks.…

2018-04-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd can contribute predictive hypotheses to a model of residential electric energy con…

2017-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.

problem Accurately predicting battery lifetime under varying conditions is challenging due to manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation.
method Extracted features from regularly scheduled reference performance tests and used them to predict battery lifetime using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model.
result Demonstrated a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using only the first 15% of data.

The paper identifies when larger models improve predictions and proposes a switcher model.

problem Understanding when larger models benefit from added complexity.
method Numerical studies on T5 architecture to analyze predictive uncertainty and model performance.
result Large models improve on examples where small models are uncertain, but not on certain examples.

A new method for time-series data provides guaranteed coverage and adapts to non-exchangeable data.

problem Guaranteed coverage for time-series data prediction intervals.
method Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR) using quantile random forest.
result SCDR achieves guaranteed asymptotic coverage and outperforms existing methods in simulations.

HIVE-COTE v1.0 improves time series classification with enhanced usability.

problem Improving time series classification accuracy and usability.
method Presented a walkthrough guide and extensive experimental evaluation of HIVE-COTE v1.0.
result HIVE-COTE v1.0 outperforms three recently proposed algorithms in predictive performance and resource usage.

Extends conformal prediction for controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.

problem Controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
method Generalizes split conformal prediction with coverage guarantee, extending to distribution shift, quantile risk, multiple, adversarial, and expectations of U-statistics.
result Tight up to an O(1/n)\mathcal{O}(1/n) factor, with worked examples in computer vision and natural language processing.

This study analyzes how weather impacts bike sharing usage in Washington D.C.

problem Understanding how weather affects bike sharing usage patterns.
method Gathered bike usage and weather data, used k-means clustering algorithm to identify clusters.
result Weather significantly impacts bike usage, with temperature and precipitation being the most influential factors.

Word embeddings are a powerful approach for analyzing language, and exponential family embeddings (EFE) extend them to other types of data. Here we develop structured exponential family embeddings (S-EFE), a method for discovering embeddings that vary across related groups of data. We study how the word usage of U.S. C…

2017-09-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Improves full conformal prediction for stochastic non-conformity measures.

problem Inability of existing conditions to guarantee full conformal prediction validity under stochastic settings.
method Introduces a new sufficient condition: Conditional Independence & Permutation Invariance in Distribution.
result Corrects the insufficient condition and provides a new sufficient condition for full conformal prediction validity.

This is a brief survey of the research performed by Grandata Labs in collaboration with numerous academic groups around the world on the topic of human mobility. A driving theme in these projects is to use and improve Data Science techniques to understand mobility, as it can be observed through the lens of mobile phone…

2018-12-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper explores how black box models can deviate from average performance.

problem Understanding and interpreting predictions from sophisticated black box models.
method Two general approaches to provide interpretable descriptions of black box classification model performance.
result Identifies regions where black box models deviate significantly from their average performance.

Deep Rule Forests identifies drug-drug and drug-disease interactions causing AKI.

problem Identifying drug-drug and drug-disease interactions leading to AKI.
method Deep Rule Forests (DRF) algorithm discovering rules from multilayer tree models.
result DRF model outperforms other algorithms in prediction accuracy and interpretability.

Study examines how imputation accuracy affects prediction accuracy in regression problems with missing covariates.

problem Missing covariates in regression or classification problems.
method Simulation and empirical analysis using UCI datasets and statistical inference.
result Imputation accuracy impacts prediction accuracy, especially with Machine Learning methods.

In both mobile and web applications, speeding up user interface response times can often lead to significant improvements in user engagement. A common technique to improve responsiveness is to precompute data ahead of time for specific activities. However, simply precomputing data for all user and activity combinations…

2019-12-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Investigations have been performed into using clustering methods in data mining time-series data from smart meters. The problem is to identify patterns and trends in energy usage profiles of commercial and industrial customers over 24-hour periods, and group similar profiles. We tested our method on energy usage data p…

2016-03-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Random forest predicts catastrophe bond spreads with 93% accuracy.

problem Predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market.
method Random forest approach using all information in offering circulars.
result Random forest explains 93% of spread variability, significantly better than linear regression (47%).

Recently, a technique called Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) was shown to deliver insightful explanations in the form of input space relevances for understanding feed-forward neural network classification decisions. In the present work, we extend the usage of LRP to recurrent neural networks. We propose a specif…

2017-06-22abs ↗pdf ↗

This work uses conformal prediction to quantify uncertainty in large language models for multiple-choice questions.

problem Ensuring robustness and reliability of large language models in high-stakes applications.
method Conformal prediction applied to multi-choice question answering.
result Uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are closely related to prediction accuracy.

Sequence-to-sequence models predict resource usage for co-scheduled jobs in data centers.

problem Challenges in co-scheduling jobs due to resource interference and inefficiencies.
method Sequence-to-sequence models based on recurrent neural networks for workload interference prediction.
result Models accurately forecast resource usage trends from job profiles, improving scheduling decisions.

A new model improves homogeneity in burn patient reimbursement.

problem Incomplete homogeneity checks for burn patients using LOS as a proxy.
method Cost-sensitive decision tree model considering patient-level cost and severity of burn.
result Identified groups with increased homogeneity compared to current HRG groups.

The concept of mathematical modeling is widespread across almost all of the fields of contemporary science and engineering. Because of the existing necessity of predictions the behavior of natural phenomena, the researchers develop more and more complex models. However, despite their ability to better forecasting, the …

2019-04-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper improves Tm prediction of protein fragments using sparsity and probabilistic models.

problem Improving accuracy of melting temperature prediction for protein fragments.
method Promoting sparsity in pre-trained transformer models and adopting probabilistic frameworks.
result Mean absolute error of 0.23C for predicting melting temperature.

Develops a fair post-processing method for student success predictions.

problem Ensuring fairness in predictive student models for educational applications.
method Uses the MADD metric to improve model fairness while maintaining accuracy.
result Successfully improved fairness of predictive models for student success.

We are concerned with modeling the strength of links in networks by taking into account how often those links are used. Link usage is a strong indicator of how closely two nodes are related, but existing network models in Bayesian Statistics and Machine Learning are able to predict only wether a link exists at all. As …

2014-02-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Study identifies key health behaviors linked to adolescent suicide attempts.

problem Understanding health behaviors associated with increased risk of adolescent suicide attempts.
method Cross-sectional data analysis using machine learning algorithms and logistic regression.
result Non-parametric Bayesian tree ensemble model outperforms other models, achieving 80.0% accuracy in goodness-of-fit and 78.2% in predictive accuracy.

A new framework predicts links in time-dependent networks using Bernoulli autoregression.

problem Predicting links in time-dependent networks with additional auxiliary information.
method A Bernoulli autoregressive model with regularization for link discovery.
result The model can discover new links not present in the data.

Feature engineering has been the key to the success of many prediction models. However, the process is non-trivial and often requires manual feature engineering or exhaustive searching. DNNs are able to automatically learn feature interactions; however, they generate all the interactions implicitly, and are not necessa…

2017-08-17abs ↗pdf ↗