Study assesses risk of upward lightning at wind turbines using direct measurements and machine learning.
problem Risk underestimation of upward lightning at wind turbines due to limited detection by current standards.
method Direct UL measurements linked to meteorological reanalysis data using random forests.
result Risk maps based on case study events show high probabilities coincide with actual UL events.
A new model classifies lightning signals more accurately across different scales.
problem Classifying VLF lightning transients to reduce interference and improve navigation system reliability.
method Introduces a multi-scale residual transformer (MRTransformer) to classify lightning signals.
result Achieved 90% accuracy in lightning signal classification.
Modeling Bitcoin Lightning Network emergence as percolation process.
problem Feasibility of the Lightning Network's emergence.
method Fitness-dependent network model based on percolation theory.
result Phase transition delineating sustainable vs. unsustainable Lightning Network states.
Study algebraic invariants from lightning self-attention models.
problem Understanding polynomial coefficients of self-attention mechanisms.
method Identify algebraic invariants using polynomial coefficients and coordinate geometry.
result Found linear and nonlinear families of algebraic invariants.
Deep learning predicts lightning strikes with high accuracy.
problem Predicting thunderstorms and lightning strikes accurately.
method Convolutional neural network architecture inspired by UNet++ and ResNet.
result Probability of detection of more than 94% for lightning strikes within 15 minutes.
This paper tackles resource allocation in the Lightning Network using DRL.
problem Complex combinatorial problem of node selection and resource allocation in the Lightning Network.
method Attention-based Deep Reinforcement Learning framework.
result Improved resource allocation leads to better performance and decentralization in the LN.
Survival strategy for crypto firms in bear markets using BTC-to-sats payments rail.
problem Downside risk in crypto reserves during bear markets.
method Conservative treasury policy, operating line monetizing holdings, BTC-to-sats payments rail.
result Sustained mNAV premium through cycles with disclosed KPIs.
Study of Hitchin map on specific Higgs bundles.
problem Understanding the Hitchin map on even very stable Higgs bundles.
method Defined even very stable Higgs bundles and studied the Hitchin map on their upward flows.
result Classification of type (1,...,1) examples and their relation to root systems.
SchNetPack 2.0 enhances atomistic machine learning with improved neural networks.
problem Improving atomistic machine learning methods and applications.
method Improved data pipeline, equivariant neural networks, PyTorch implementation, PyTorch Lightning, Hydra configuration framework.
result Easy extension and complex training tasks support.
In the paper "On Truncated Variation of Brownian Motion with Drift" (Bull. Pol. Acad. Sci. Math. 56 (2008), no.4, 267 - 281) we defined truncated variation of Brownian motion with drift, Wt=Bt+μt,t≥0, where (Bt) is a standard Brownian motion. Truncated variation differs from regular variation by neglect…
Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed brightness temperatures in different spectral channels and emit a warning if a critic…
Study of parabolic Higgs bundles on curves with special fixed points.
problem Understanding fixed points of Cimes-action on moduli spaces of Higgs bundles. method Analyzing Cimes-action on moduli spaces, classifying fixed points, and studying Bialynicki-Birula flows. result Classification of very stable fixed points and their relation to Hitchin maps.
Introduces XC-tangles for quantum tangle invariants.
problem Quantum invariants of tangles and virtual tangles.
method Introduces XC-tangles and their equivalence to virtual upwards tangles.
result Extension of knot isotopy invariants to XC-tangles.
Develops a new model for pricing without arbitrage opportunities.
problem Arbitrage opportunities in standard jump-diffusion models.
method Introduces a multi-type jump-diffusion model with diffusion-dependent jumps.
result Derives no-arbitrage condition linking drift to model parameters.
Survey on advanced gauge theory concepts.
problem Understanding higher gauge theory structures.
method Introduction to higher structures and connections on higher principal bundles.
result Summarized applications and principles of higher gauge theories.
The percolation model of stock market speculation allows an asymmetry (in the return distribution) leading to fast downward crashes and slow upward recovery. We see more small upturns and more intermediate downturns.
The atomic swap protocol allows for the exchange of cryptocurrencies on different blockchains without the need to trust a third-party. However, market participants who desire to hold derivative assets such as options or futures would also benefit from trustless exchange. In this paper I propose the atomic swaption, whi…
To train an inference network jointly with a deep generative topic model, making it both scalable to big corpora and fast in out-of-sample prediction, we develop Weibull hybrid autoencoding inference (WHAI) for deep latent Dirichlet allocation, which infers posterior samples via a hybrid of stochastic-gradient MCMC and…
News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double exponential jump-diffusion model is proposed. Theorems stated in the paper enable est…
Research examines how foreign direct investment in Vietnam affects stock returns.
problem Impact of foreign direct investment on stock returns in Vietnam.
method Analyzes data from 1995 to 2015 focusing on M&A deals.
result Foreign direct investment in Vietnam, particularly M&A, influences abnormal stock returns.
To infer a multilayer representation of high-dimensional count vectors, we propose the Poisson gamma belief network (PGBN) that factorizes each of its layers into the product of a connection weight matrix and the nonnegative real hidden units of the next layer. The PGBN's hidden layers are jointly trained with an upwar…
A fast graph embedding method for large graphs.
problem Efficiently embedding large graphs for various applications.
method One-hot graph encoder embedding with linear complexity.
result Graph encoder embedding is approximately normally distributed and converges to its mean.
Develops a flexible deep autoencoding topic model with scalable hybrid Bayesian inference.
problem Flexible and interpretable document analysis models.
method DATM with hybrid Bayesian inference, including topic-layer-adaptive stochastic gradient Riemannian MCMC and Weibull variational encoder.
result Demonstrates scalability and efficacy on big corpora in unsupervised and supervised learning tasks.
Machine learning detects and characterizes whistler radio waves for real-time monitoring of the plasmasphere.
problem Detect and characterise whistler radio waves generated by lightning strokes for real-time monitoring of the plasmasphere.
method Developed a machine learning model using image classification and localisation on spectrogram data to identify and localise whistlers.
result The proposed detectors achieve a misdetection and false alarm rate of less than 15% on Marion's dataset.
Path-independent equilibrium models improve network performance on harder problems.
problem Improving network performance on harder problem instances.
method Investigated path-independent equilibrium models and their impact on network performance.
result Path independence correlates with better performance on harder problem instances.
A new Twitter sentiment model predicts stock market trends with high accuracy.
problem Real-time prediction of future stock market prices.
method Baseline correlation approach using polynomial regression, classification, and lexicon-based sentiment analysis.
result Predicts stock market trends with 67.22% accuracy, up to 15 time samples in advance.
Data symmetries in neural networks can generate conserved quantities.
problem Conservation laws in neural networks
method Using tensorizable networks
result Data augmentation can induce conserved quantities
The rBergomi model is improved with a regime switching change of measure to match market VIX smiles.
problem The rBergomi model produces flat VIX smiles, not matching market observations.
method A regime switching stochastic change of measure is applied to the rBergomi model, using an inhomogeneous fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation and an efficient Monte Carlo method.
result The model produces upward sloping VIX smiles, aligning with market observations.
Predicts S&P 500 trends using machine learning models.
problem Market trend prediction for S&P 500 index.
method Feature engineering, machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Neural Networks, KNN, XGBoost), data preprocessing, hyperparameter tuning, SMOTE.
result KNN for short-term predictions, XGBoost for long-term forecasts.
This paper presents a spatiotemporal unsupervised feature learning method for cause identification of electromagnetic transient events (EMTE) in power grids. The proposed method is formulated based on the availability of time-synchronized high-frequency measurement, and using the convolutional neural network (CNN) as t…
Model predicts stock market trends for better investment decisions.
problem Identifying optimal times to buy and sell stocks.
method XGBoost machine learning model using time series data and feature engineering.
result Model accurately predicts stock market trends and their endpoints.
We simplify SVI volatility smile constraints for three sub-SVIs without numerical methods.
problem No arbitrage constraints for SVI volatility smiles.
method Explicit domain derivation for sub-SVIs without numerical procedures.
result Explicit no arbitrage domains for Symmetric SVI, Vanishing Upward/Downward SVI, and SSVI.
Study robustness of polynomial neural networks using algebraic geometry.
problem Certify robustness radius of polynomial neural networks.
method Metric algebraic geometry, Euclidean distance degree, symbolic elimination, homotopy-continuation methods.
result Found decision boundaries with lower ED degree than generic cubic hypersurfaces.
McKernel introduces a framework to use kernel approximates in the mini-batch setting with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) as an alternative to Deep Learning. Based on Random Kitchen Sinks [Rahimi and Recht 2007], we provide a C++ library for Large-scale Machine Learning. It contains a CPU optimized implementation of …
Paper builds a supervised learning model for Chinese futures price prediction.
problem Predicting the trend of Chinese futures prices accurately.
method Supervised learning model designed for futures price movement classification.
result The model meets accuracy requirements for classifying futures price movements.
We show that the martingale component in the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor due to Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) is highly volatile, produces a downward-sloping term structure of bond Sharpe ratios, and implies that the long bond is far from growth optimality. In…
Building accurate language models that capture meaningful long-term dependencies is a core challenge in natural language processing. Towards this end, we present a calibration-based approach to measure long-term discrepancies between a generative sequence model and the true distribution, and use these discrepancies to …
The free factor complex of rank 4+ fails a combinatorial isoperimetric inequality.
problem Failure of combinatorial isoperimetric inequality in the free factor complex.
method Construction of a coarsely Lipschitz function from the upward link of a free factor to integers.
result A loop in the free factor complex requires linearly growing number of 2-simplices to fill.
This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction demand and speculative demand equations in a GARCH framework using hourly data fo…
Recent research on Bitcoin Transaction Networks reveals a growing, sparse, and core-periphery structure.
problem Understanding the evolution of Bitcoin's network structure and user behavior.
method Review of recent results on Bitcoin Transaction Networks, including Address Network, User Network, and Lightning Network.
result Bitcoin Transaction Networks exhibit a core-periphery structure, indicating increasing centralization.
The paper studies Lagrangian structures in Higgs bundle moduli spaces and their conformal limits.
problem Understanding Lagrangian structures in Hitchin moduli space.
method Analyzing semistable and polystable Higgs bundles, focusing on the intersection with Lagrangian sublocus.
result The conformal limit of stable Higgs bundles on a specific Lagrangian sublocus exists under certain conditions.
DyFEn simulates blockchain for fee setting in payment channels.
problem Dynamic fee setting in off-chain payment channels.
method Agent-based reinforcement learning in a blockchain simulation.
result Empirical results of reinforcement learning methods on dynamic fee setting.
Fastest video anomaly detection via teacher-student distillation.
problem Anomaly detection in video at high speed.
method Adversarial knowledge distillation from object-level teacher models.
result 7-62 times faster than state-of-the-art methods.
Stress, edge crossings, and crossing angles play an important role in the quality and readability of graph drawings. Most standard graph drawing algorithms optimize one of these criteria which may lead to layouts that are deficient in other criteria. We introduce an optimization framework, Stress-Plus-X (SPX), that sim…
Trading strategies that were profitable in the past often degrade with time. Since unlucky streaks can also hit "healthy" strategies, how can one detect that something truly worrying is happening? It is intuitive that a drawdown that lasts too long or one that is too deep should lead to a downward revision of the assum…
One of the primary concerns of product quality control in the automotive industry is an automated detection of defects of small sizes on specular car body surfaces. A new statistical learning approach is presented for surface finish defect detection based on spline smoothing method for feature extraction and k-neares…
Refines a tangle invariant using XC-algebras.
problem Building a refined tangle invariant using XC-algebras.
method Constructing a canonical strict monoidal functor that refines the Kerler-Kauffman-Radford invariant.
result Preserves the braiding, twist, and open trace.
We develop deep Poisson-gamma dynamical systems (DPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data, improving previously proposed models by not only mining deep hierarchical latent structure from the data, but also capturing both first-order and long-range temporal dependencies. Using sophisticated but simp…