A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
GNNRank uses neural networks to learn global rankings from competition match data.
Deep Neural Network has proved its potential in various perception tasks and hence become an appealing option for interpretation and data processing in security sensitive systems. However, security-sensitive systems demand not only high perception performance, but also design robustness under various circumstances. Unl…
Paper models entropy-based impact of soft errors on neural network inference.
The success of lottery ticket initializations (Frankle and Carbin, 2019) suggests that small, sparsified networks can be trained so long as the network is initialized appropriately. Unfortunately, finding these "winning ticket" initializations is computationally expensive. One potential solution is to reuse the same wi…
The lottery ticket hypothesis finds multiple winning sub-networks in neural networks.
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
E-LTH finds winning tickets scalable across different network architectures.
In programmatic advertising, ad slots are usually sold using second-price (SP) auctions in real-time. The highest bidding advertiser wins but pays only the second-highest bid (known as the winning price). In SP, for a single item, the dominant strategy of each bidder is to bid the true value from the bidder's perspecti…
Paper confirms winning tickets have sharp minima, useful for generalization.
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making,…
This work proves win rate is key to understanding preference learning.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
New convergence guarantees for learning with unknown nuisance parameters.
This paper discusses the gambling contest introduced in Seel & Strack (Gambling in contests, Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 375, Mar 2012.) and considers the impact of adding a penalty associated with failure to follow a winning strategy. The Seel & Strack model c…
Calculates winning probability for three candidates based on support rates and information timing.
New bid shading algorithm reduces costs by 55%.
The thesis explores IMP, a process that identifies winning tickets in DNNs, and its universality.
Paper tackles learning win-win solutions in aggregation systems.
Model analyzes RFQ markets using stochastic control to optimize dealer performance and inventory.
New algorithm for identifying Condorcet team in noisy comparisons.
The paper calculates gap distributions for translation surfaces, focusing on the double heptagon.
Different models to study the wealth distribution in an artificial society have considered a transactional dynamics as the driving force. Those models include a risk aversion factor, but also a finite probability of favoring the poorer agent in a transaction. Here we study the case where the partners in the transaction…
This paper studies the correlations of the average winnings of agents and the volatilities of systems based on mix-game model which is an extension of minority game (MG). In mix-game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. The results show that the correl…
Faster WIND accelerates iterative BOND for LLM alignment.
Proposes a new financial model capturing winning and losing streaks.
Uniform AMMs control loss in prediction markets.
The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM using an empirical model…
The Tangent Works team participated in GEFCom 2017 to test its automatic model building strategy for time series known as Tangent Information Modeller (TIM). Model building using TIM combined with historical temperature shuffling resulted in winning the competition. This strategy involved one remaining degree of freedo…
Improved pruning method finds winning neural network subnetworks.
Combinatorial two-player games have recently been applied to knot theory. Examples of this include the Knotting-Unknotting Game and the Region Unknotting Game, both of which are played on knot shadows. These are turn-based games played by two players, where each player has a separate goal to achieve in order to win the…
We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and games in the NFL season and use them alongside statistical game data to build predic…
We solve exactly a simple model of trend following strategy, and obtain the analytical shape of the profit per trade distribution. This distribution is non trivial and has an option like, asymmetric structure. The degree of asymmetry depends continuously on the parameters of the strategy and on the volatility of the tr…
(Frankle & Carbin, 2019) shows that there exist winning tickets (small but critical subnetworks) for dense, randomly initialized networks, that can be trained alone to achieve comparable accuracies to the latter in a similar number of iterations. However, the identification of these winning tickets still requires the c…
We continue the study of statistical/computational tradeoffs in learning robust classifiers, following the recent work of Bubeck, Lee, Price and Razenshteyn who showed examples of classification tasks where (a) an efficient robust classifier exists, in the small-perturbation regime; (b) a non-robust classifier can be l…
Pruning FCNs reveals sub-networks that match CNNs' performance.
In mix-game which is an extension of minority game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. This paper studies the change of the average winnings of agents and volatilities vs. the change of mixture of agents in mix-game model. It finds that the correlatio…
State-space models win a forecasting competition for unstable data.
The lottery ticket hypothesis proposes that over-parameterization of deep neural networks (DNNs) aids training by increasing the probability of a "lucky" sub-network initialization being present rather than by helping the optimization process (Frankle & Carbin, 2019). Intriguingly, this phenomenon suggests that initial…
Unsupervised model generates distinct intonation codes for speech synthesis.
Improved MACD trading strategies with other indicators for better performance.
Given a set of pairwise comparisons, the classical ranking problem computes a single ranking that best represents the preferences of all users. In this paper, we study the problem of inferring individual preferences, arising in the context of making personalized recommendations. In particular, we assume that there are …
Adversarial policies beat superhuman Go AI systems.
IMP finds sparse subnetworks that match full networks, revealing geometric insights.
We consider a class of auctions (Lowest Unique Bid Auctions) that have achieved a considerable success on the Internet. Bids are made in cents (of euro) and every bidder can bid as many numbers as she wants. The lowest unique bid wins the auction. Every bid has a fixed cost, and once a participant makes a bid, she gets…
Machine learning competitions such as those organized by Kaggle or KDD represent a useful benchmark for data science research. In this work, we present our winning solution to the Game Data Mining competition hosted at the 2017 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG 2017). The contest consisted of…
Time series forecasting is widely used in a multitude of domains. In this paper, we present four models to predict the stock price using the SPX index as input time series data. The martingale and ordinary linear models require the strongest assumption in stationarity which we use as baseline models. The generalized li…
Greedy pruning reduces neural networks by a logarithmic number of tickets, improving accuracy.