A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper analyzes regret bounds for Gaussian process Thompson sampling.
problem Analyzing the performance of Gaussian process Thompson sampling (GP-TS) in Bayesian optimization.
method The paper derives several regret bounds for GP-TS, including a lower bound, upper bounds on the second moment of cumulative regret, expected lenient regret, and improved cumulative regret.
result The paper provides improved regret upper bounds for GP-TS, showing that it suffers from a polynomial dependence on 1/δ with probability δ.
We give an exposition and numerical studies of upper hedging prices in multinomial models from the viewpoint of linear programming and the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk. We also show that, as the number of rounds goes to infinity, the upper hedging price of a European option converges to the solution of…
While the channel capacity reflects a theoretical upper bound on the achievable information transmission rate in the limit of infinitely many bits, it does not characterise the information transfer of a given encoding routine with finitely many bits. In this note, we characterise the quality of a code (i. e. a given en…
The Wasserstein metric is an important measure of distance between probability distributions, with applications in machine learning, statistics, probability theory, and data analysis. This paper provides upper and lower bounds on statistical minimax rates for the problem of estimating a probability distribution under W…
The estimation of probabilities of default (PDs) for low default portfolios by means of upper confidence bounds is a well established procedure in many financial institutions. However, there are often discussions within the institutions or between institutions and supervisors about which confidence level to use for the…
problem High computational cost in reconstructing data uncertainties.
method Subdivide data spatially, adaptively reconstructing only necessary values, using GPR kernel and saved data observations to estimate upper bounds for level-crossing probabilities.
result Accurate estimation of value occurrence probabilities with low computation cost.
We provide upper bounds of the expected Wasserstein distance between a probability measure and its empirical version, generalizing recent results for finite dimensional Euclidean spaces and bounded functional spaces. Such a generalization can cover Euclidean spaces with large dimensionality, with the optimal dependence…
The paper proposes a new method to measure risk with fine-grained tail sensitivity.
problem Risk measures that do not account for tail sensitivity are insufficient for machine learning systems.
method The approach involves specifying a reference distribution with desired tail behavior and constructing risk measures compatible with this upper probability.
result Risk measures with fine-grained tail sensitivity can replace the expectation operator in machine learning systems.
We give an overview of two approaches to probability theory where lower and upper probabilities, rather than probabilities, are used: Walley's behavioural theory of imprecise probabilities, and Shafer and Vovk's game-theoretic account of probability. We show that the two theories are more closely related than would be …
Recently, fundamental conditions on the sampling patterns have been obtained for finite completability of low-rank matrices or tensors given the corresponding ranks. In this paper, we consider the scenario where the rank is not given and we aim to approximate the unknown rank based on the location of sampled entries an…
In this note we show that in metric measure spaces satisfying the reduced curvature-dimension condition CD*(K,N) we always have geodesics in the Wasserstein space of probability measures that satisfy the critical convexity inequality of CD*(K,N) also for intermediate times and in addition the measures along these geode…
We study a sequential resource allocation problem between a fixed number of arms. On each iteration the algorithm distributes a resource among the arms in order to maximize the expected success rate. Allocating more of the resource to a given arm increases the probability that it succeeds, yet with a cut-off. We follow…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function (scoring rule). Popular example of scoring rule for continuous outcomes is the …
In this paper a quantitative analysis of the ruin probability in finite time of discrete risk process with proportional reinsurance and investment of finance surplus is focused on. It is assumed that the total loss on a unit interval has a light-tailed distribution -- exponential distribution and a heavy-tailed distrib…
We study the systole of a random surface, where by a random surface we mean a surface constructed by randomly gluing together an even number of triangles. We study two types of metrics on these surfaces, the first one coming from using ideal hyperbolic triangles and the second one using triangles that carry a given Rie…
We study two-layer belief networks of binary random variables in which the conditional probabilities Pr[childlparents] depend monotonically on weighted sums of the parents. In large networks where exact probabilistic inference is intractable, we show how to compute upper and lower bounds on many probabilities of intere…
In this text, we establish the risk model based on AR(1) series and propose the basic model which has a dependent structure under intensity of claim number. Considering some properties of the risk model, we take advantage of newton iteration method to figure out the adjustment coefficient and estimate the exponential u…
We show that the probability that a finitely supported random walk on a non-elementary subgroup of the the mapping class group gives a non-pseudo-Anosov element decays exponentially in the length of the random walk. More generally, we show that if R is a set of mapping class group elements with an upper bound on their …