A new method infers causal direction from discrete variables using entropy of unobserved exogenous variables.
problem Identifying causal direction between two discrete random variables using observational data.
method Assumes simplicity of unobserved exogenous variable using Rényi entropy and proposes an efficient greedy algorithm.
result Proves that if exogenous variable has low entropy in true direction, it must have high entropy in wrong direction.
Paper proves causal direction can be inferred from data with limited randomness.
problem Inferring causal direction from observational data with limited randomness.
method Entropy measurement and structural causal models.
result Causal direction is identifiable for most causal models with limited entropy.
Study tackles causal structure learning in linear models with unobserved variables and measurement error.
problem Challenges of unobserved common causes and measurement error in causal structure learning.
method Introduces LV-SEM-ME model with four types of variables and characterizes identifiability under separability condition.
result Establishes form of identification robustness for target effect in broader LV-SEM-ME model.
New method for robust policy evaluation in offline reinforcement learning with sequentially exogenous unobserved confounders.
problem Offline reinforcement learning in domains with unobserved confounders.
method Orthogonalized robust fitted-Q-iteration with closed-form solutions and bias-correction.
result Effective in simulations and real-world data, improving robustness and computational ease.
We tackle causal discovery in linear systems with measurement error and unobserved causes.
problem Causal discovery in linear systems with measurement error and unobserved causes.
method Characterization of identifiability based on the mixing matrix, proposing causal structure learning methods.
result The structure of causal models can be identified under certain faithfulness assumptions.
We formalize and decompose reinforcement learning problems with exogenous state variables and rewards.
problem Exogenous state variables and rewards slow down reinforcement learning.
method Formalized exogenous state variables and rewards, decomposed MDPs, derived variance-covariance condition, developed algorithms.
result Monte Carlo policy evaluation on the endogenous MDP is accelerated compared to using the full MDP.
The paper tackles reinforcement learning with exogenous variables and rewards.
problem Exogenous state variables and rewards slow reinforcement learning by introducing uncontrolled variation.
method Formalizes exogenous state variables and rewards, decomposes MDP into exogenous and endogenous components, and introduces algorithms to discover these components.
result Optimal policies for the endogenous MDP are also optimal for the original MDP, but the endogenous MDP is easier to solve due to reduced variance.
New method warns of counterfactual non-identifiability in DSCMs.
problem Counterfactual inference from observational data is non-identifiable even without unobserved confounding.
method Prove counterfactual identifiability for monotonic generation mechanisms, provide impossibility result for general mechanisms, propose method for estimating worst-case errors.
result Non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in absence of unobserved confounding.
New method learns exogenous variable distributions for better causal optimization.
problem Maximizing target variables in structural causal models.
method Learn exogenous variable distributions to improve surrogate models' fidelity.
result Improves approximation of structural causal models and broader application scenarios.
We study Exo-MDPs to reduce sample complexity in reinforcement learning.
problem Reducing sample complexity in reinforcement learning for structured MDPs.
method Introducing Exo-MDPs and proving structural equivalence to linear mixture MDPs, establishing regret bounds.
result Proved O ( H 3 / 2 d K ) O(H^{3/2}d\sqrt{K}) O ( H 3/2 d K ) regret bound for Exo-MDPs, matching lower bounds. Proposes an interpretable LSTM for time series with exogenous variables.
problem Lack of variable importance characterization in recurrent neural networks.
method Develops a multi-variable LSTM with tensorized hidden states for learning variable-specific representations.
result Variable attention in real datasets is highly aligned with statistical causality.
Novel tensor decomposition identifies directed network topologies from nodal data.
problem Identifying hidden directed network topologies from nodal data.
method Three-way tensor factorization using PARAFAC decomposition with second-order exogenous inputs.
result Topology can be identified from second-order exogenous inputs and time-varying factors.
Paper identifies unobserved variables from observable data.
problem Missing variables in empirical studies.
method Function mapping from observables to unobservables based on joint distribution.
result Uniqueness of latent values in each observation.
Many statistical methods have been proposed to estimate causal models in classical situations with fewer variables than observations (p<n, p: the number of variables and n: the number of observations). However, modern datasets including gene expression data need high-dimensional causal modeling in challenging situation…
A new framework for time series analysis using state-space learning.
problem Ineffectiveness of traditional Kalman filtering in handling big data and multiple explanatory variables.
method State Space Learning (SSL) framework using statistical learning for high-dimensional regression.
result SSL outperforms traditional methods in subset selection and forecasting accuracy.
HRHN predicts time series by integrating exogenous data and temporal dynamics.
problem Challenges in predicting time series with exogenous data and temporal dynamics.
method Hierarchical attention-based Recurrent Highway Network (HRHN) that considers interactions among exogenous variables and temporal dynamics.
result HRHN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in time series prediction, especially in capturing sudden changes and oscillations.
New method removes hidden confounders for unbiased treatment effect estimation.
problem Bias in treatment effect estimation due to unobserved confounders.
method Proposes a new debiased estimation approach via SVD to handle heterogeneous confounding.
result Established rate of convergence for the estimator under different noise conditions.
Proposes a multi-variable LSTM for accurate time series forecasting and variable importance.
problem Current attention mechanisms in recurrent neural networks fail to characterize variable importance in time series with exogenous variables.
method Develops a multi-variable LSTM with tensorized hidden states to learn variable importance and a mixture of temporal and variable attention.
result Demonstrates superior prediction performance and variable importance quantification compared to baselines.
CDVAE estimates treatment effects over time by accounting for unobserved variables.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE) that addresses unconfoundedness and unobserved heterogeneity.
result CDVAE outperforms existing methods in estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs).
Paper introduces a novel traffic forecasting model using autoencoders and exogenous variables.
problem Traffic forecasting using aggregated data from vehicles and infrastructure.
method Recurrent Autoencoder with skip connections and exogenous variables for dynamic traffic data.
result Model predicts speed, volume, and traffic direction with exogenous variables like weather and time.
Improved electricity price forecasting with NBEATSx model.
problem Forecasting electricity prices with limited data.
method Extended NBEATS model to include exogenous variables.
result Significantly improved forecast accuracy (up to 5%) compared to existing methods.
A new framework for causal inference from entropy minimization.
problem Identifying causal relationships between discrete random variables from data.
method Minimum entropy coupling problem solved via a greedy algorithm.
result The greedy algorithm finds a local minimum and is within an additive error of the global optimum.
Estimates Granger causality with unobserved confounders using deep latent-variable recurrent neural networks.
problem Non-linear Granger causality with unobserved confounders in observational studies.
method Generative model with latent variable, variational autoencoder, recurrent neural network.
result Estimated confounders improve performance in non-linear Granger causality with multiple proxies.
New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.
problem Using traditional 'retrospective' counterfactuals in treatment choice leads to counterintuitive results.
method Introduces 'counterfactual treatment choice' for forward-looking counterfactuals.
result Mismatches between interventional and forward-looking counterfactuals can lead to counterintuitive results.
This work restricts hidden cardinality in causal models to infer causal relations.
problem Causal relations between variables with a common unobserved cause cannot be directly inferred.
method Derive inequality constraints from d-separation in causal models with known cardinalities of unobserved variables.
result Inference of causal relations is possible with additional assumptions about cardinalities.
We learn latent variable graphs in Gaussian models with unobserved variables.
problem Learning the structure of dependence between observed and unobserved variables in Gaussian graphical models.
method Proposed a convex optimization formulation based on structured matrix sparsity to estimate the complete connectivity of the graph including unobserved variables.
result The complete connectivity of the graph including unobserved variables can be estimated given the number of missing variables and their level of connectivity.
New method scores DAGs by identifying unobserved confounding.
problem Unobserved confounding complicates causal discovery.
method Score-based causal discovery algorithm that accounts for unobserved confounding.
result Sparse linear Gaussian DAGs can be recovered from observed data.
HL algorithms improve resource allocation in cloud environments.
problem Sequential decision-making under uncertainty with exogenous variables.
method HL algorithms leverage exogenous variable samples to infer counterfactual consequences.
result HL algorithms outperform classic methods and reinforcement learning in resource allocation.
Paper tackles distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
problem Distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
method Linear structural causal model, invariant covariate representations, data-driven representation learning method.
result Optimizes for a lower-dimensional linear subspace and a prediction model confined to that subspace, achieving nearly ideal gap between target and source risk.
Simpson's paradox can invalidate the results of medical trials if an unobserved variable is considered.
problem The validity of medical trial results can be invalidated by an unobserved confounding variable.
method Simulated controlled trials to demonstrate the paradox.
result The results of a trial can be reversed by including an unobserved confounding variable.
GEEN uses deep learning to estimate unobserved variables from observed data.
problem Estimating unobserved variables in latent variable models.
method GEEN uses deep learning with Kullback-Leibler distance to map observed measurements to latent variable realizations.
result GEEN provides a method to identify and estimate latent variables in a class of models.
New method estimates treatment effects over time with unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with unobserved confounders.
method Sequential Deconfounder using Gaussian process latent variable model.
result Unbiased estimates of individualized treatment responses over time.
SPECTRA improves probabilistic energy forecasting by separating trends and uncertainties.
problem Interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, demand flexibility, market volatility, and weather impact probabilistic forecasts.
method Adaptive state-space exogenous context and temporal-frequency resolution architecture.
result Achieved best CRPS in 14 out of 18 settings, reducing CRPS by 5.74% and upper-tail quantile risk by 7.27%.
Paper challenges recent methods for causal inference with multiple causes and unobserved confounders.
problem Causal inference with multiple causes and unobserved confounders.
method Analytical counterexamples and impossibility proofs.
result Nonparametric identification is impossible for causal inference with multiple causes and unobserved confounders.
Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.
problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.
New framework for estimating treatment effects in observational studies.
problem Estimating average treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Distributionally robust optimization, sensitivity models.
result Sharp bounds on average treatment effects under distributional assumptions.
Paper proposes methods to discover causal models with unobserved variables.
problem Discovering causal relationships in data with unobserved variables.
method Two methods leveraging prior knowledge for causal discovery in CAM-UV models.
result Accuracy of causal discovery improves with more prior knowledge.
The paper evaluates income credibility using a hierarchical correlation reconstruction technique.
problem Automatic evaluation of credibility of exogenous variables like income based on endogenous variables.
method Adapted hierarchical correlation reconstruction technique for credibility evaluation, combining statistics with machine learning.
result The method allows for the automatic evaluation of credibility of income data, with high density values considered credible.
Deep state space model forecasts time series with uncertainty.
problem Probabilistic forecasting for risk management.
method Parameterized deep networks for non-linear models, recurrent neural nets for dependency, ARD network for exogenous variables.
result Accurate and sharp probabilistic forecasts with realistic uncertainty growth.
New method identifies causal effects with categorical unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Mixture learning and tensor decomposition for consistent estimation.
result Causal effects are identifiable with categorical unobserved confounders under suitable conditions.
Method identifies unknown intervention targets in structural causal models from diverse data.
problem Identifying unknown intervention targets in structural causal models from heterogeneous data.
method Two-phase approach: first recovers exogenous noises, second matches with endogenous variables.
result Proposed method uniquely identifies intervention targets under causal sufficiency assumption.
Single proxy variable helps estimate causal effects from confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects from treatment to outcome when unobserved confounders are present.
method Assumes a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and a known mechanism generating the proxy from the confounder. Proves causal effects are identifiable under completeness assumption.
result Causal effects are identifiable under SPICE assumption.
CLOUD method detects causal relationships in various data types without latent variable assumptions.
problem Detecting causal relationships in the presence of unobserved common causes.
method CLOUD method using Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) Code for various data types (discrete, mixed, continuous).
result CLOUD method is more effective than existing methods in inferring causal relationships.
ContiVAE estimates individual dose-response curves from unobserved confounders using observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments considering unobserved confounders.
method Variational auto-encoder with a Tilted Gaussian prior distribution modeling hidden confounders as latent variables.
result ContiVAE outperforms existing methods by up to 62% in predicting individual dose-response curves.
New method tackles OOD robustness with a single additional variable.
problem Out-of-distribution generalization with unobserved confounders.
method Identifiability assumptions using a single additional variable.
result Superior empirical performance on benchmark tasks.
Causal discovery predicts unobserved joint statistics from observed data.
problem Inferring properties of unobserved joint distributions from observed data.
method Infer causal models from observed data to predict statistical properties of unobserved sets.
result Sparse causal graphs can be more useful than dense ones in predicting unobserved joint distributions.
Intact-VAE estimates treatment effects with latent confounders.
problem Estimating treatment effects under unobserved confounding.
method Intact-VAE, a VAE variant, models latent confounders to identify treatment effects.
result Intact-VAE is a consistent estimator of treatment effects under certain settings.
The paper defines conditions for learning causal graphs from data with unobserved variables.
problem Learning causal graphs from data with unobserved variables.
method Formalizes constraint-based structure learning algorithms under conditions and assumptions.
result Natural family of algorithms output Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph under faithfulness assumption.