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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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92184275367 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for unknown dynamics

Bayesian method synthesizes barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states.

problem Certifying safety in systems with unknown dynamics and latent states.
method Bayesian inference with Metropolis-Hastings sampler and sum-of-squares program.
result Probabilistic validity of barrier certificates for unknown systems.

New algorithm reduces dynamic regret for MDPs with unknown transition and adversarial rewards.

problem Episodic linear mixture MDPs with unknown transition and adversarial rewards.
method Combines occupancy-measure-based global optimization and policy-based variance-aware value-targeted regression.
result Achieves near-optimal dynamic regret of O~(dH3K+HK(H+PˉK))\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d \sqrt{H^3 K} + \sqrt{HK(H + \bar{P}_K)}).

MAGI-X learns unknown dynamics from data without numerical integration.

problem Difficult to propose ODEs in closed-form for complex systems.
method MAGI-X uses neural networks within a manifold-constrained Gaussian process framework.
result MAGI-X achieves competitive accuracy in fitting and forecasting with reduced computational time.

Reinforcement learning would enjoy better success on real-world problems if domain knowledge could be imparted to the algorithm by the modelers. Most problems have both hidden state and unknown dynamics. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) allow for the modeling of both. Unfortunately, they do not p…

2012-12-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Advanced and effective collaborative filtering methods based on explicit feedback assume that unknown ratings do not follow the same model as the observed ones (\emph{not missing at random}). In this work, we build on this assumption, and introduce a novel dynamic matrix factorization framework that allows to set an ex…

2015-07-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Despite significant effort in understanding complex systems (CS), we lack a theory for modeling, inference, analysis and efficient control of time-varying complex networks (TVCNs) in uncertain environments. From brain activity dynamics to microbiome, and even chromatin interactions within the genome architecture, many …

2018-11-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Method learns dynamics of slow variables from stochastic data.

problem Modeling unknown multiscale stochastic systems with limited data.
method Data-driven approach to learn effective dynamics from bursts of observation data.
result Generative model accurately captures effective dynamics of slow variables.

Bayesian algorithm stabilizes unknown continuous-time systems from unstable data.

problem Learning and stabilizing unknown continuous-time systems with uncertain dynamics.
method Bayesian learning algorithm that learns from unstable data to stabilize the system in finite time.
result The algorithm stabilizes unknown continuous-time stochastic linear systems effectively after a short time period.

New RL approach learns dynamic VCG mechanisms in unknown MDP environments.

problem Learning dynamic VCG mechanisms in unknown MDP environments.
method Reward-free online RL for exploration, combined with function approximation.
result Regret bound of O~(T2/3)\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3}) for dynamic VCG mechanism learning.

Estimates system parameters from a single observation using kernel-based score.

problem Estimating parameters of a dynamical system from a high-dimensional signal.
method Kernel-based score to compare temporal dependencies between signal and model.
result Accuracy and efficiency demonstrated on chaotic systems.

New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.

problem State inference in state-space models with computationally expensive and undefined dynamics.
method Estimate state transition dynamics using a multi-output Gaussian process and Bayesian Neural Network as a surrogate model.
result Significant improvement in accuracy for state inference and prediction in non-stationary user models.

Improved RL algorithm stabilizes unknown linear systems with polynomial regret.

problem Learning and stabilizing unknown linear dynamical systems.
method Proposes an algorithm with an improved exploration strategy for fast stabilization.
result Achieves ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) regret after TT time steps.

KCRL learns stable policies for nonlinear systems with formal guarantees.

problem Lack of stabilization guarantees in RL methods for safety-critical systems.
method KCRL uses Krasovskii's Lyapunov functions as a stability constraint and a primal-dual approach to learn stabilizing policies.
result KCRL guarantees learning a stabilizing policy in a finite number of interactions.

Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.

problem Learning and correcting models under unknown distribution shifts in time-series data.
method LiLY framework that recovers latent causal variables and identifies their relations from temporal data under different distribution shifts.
result The framework reliably identifies time-delayed latent causal influences from observed variables under different distribution changes.

Optimal pricing strategy for unknown valuation models with noisy feedback.

problem Minimizing regret in dynamic pricing with unknown valuation functions and noisy feedback.
method Proposes a minimax-optimal algorithm using discretization and data partitioning to handle unknown noise distribution and Lipschitz continuity of valuation functions.
result Achieves minimax-optimal regret bound matching the theoretical lower bound up to logarithmic factors.

Guaranteed reachable set for unknown nonlinear systems on manifolds.

problem Determining reachable set for unknown nonlinear systems on manifolds.
method Underapproximations of reachable set using local dynamics and bounds on dynamics rate of change.
result Guaranteed set of reachable states for systems on complete Riemannian manifolds.

Develops ΦΦ-DVAE for assimilating unstructured data into physical models.

problem Challenges in incorporating unstructured data into physical models.
method Physics-informed dynamical variational autoencoder (ΦΦ-DVAE) combining latent state-space model and VAE.
result Demonstrates data-efficient dynamics encoding with competitive performance and uncertainty quantification.

Bayesian framework integrates prior and data knowledge for nonlinear dynamical systems.

problem Fusing diverse prior knowledge with data for accurate model learning.
method General-purpose Bayesian inference and learning framework combining explicit and implicit prior knowledge.
result Efficient parameter marginalization and closed-form densities for online and offline inference.

Bayesian ODEs with Gaussian processes infer unknown dynamics from data.

problem Estimating unknown continuous-time system dynamics from data.
method Bayesian nonparametric model using Gaussian processes, sparse variational inference, probabilistic shooting.
result Posterior predictive uncertainty scores outperform alternative methods on multiple ODE learning tasks.

Develops inverse EKF for non-linear systems with stability guarantees and learning unknown dynamics.

problem Estimating adversary's Kalman-filtered estimates in highly non-linear systems.
method Proposes inverse extended Kalman filter (I-EKF) for second-order, Gaussian sum, and dithered forward models. Uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space for learning unknown dynamics.
result Derives theoretical stability guarantees for inverse second-order EKF.

In conventional ODE modelling coefficients of an equation driving the system state forward in time are estimated. However, for many complex systems it is practically impossible to determine the equations or interactions governing the underlying dynamics. In these settings, parametric ODE model cannot be formulated. Her…

2018-03-12abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of learning by demonstration from agents acting in unknown stochastic Markov environments or games. Our aim is to estimate agent preferences in order to construct improved policies for the same task that the agents are trying to solve. To do so, we extend previous probabilistic approaches for in…

2014-08-09abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of learning by demonstration from agents acting in unknown stochastic Markov environments or games. Our aim is to estimate agent preferences in order to construct improved policies for the same task that the agents are trying to solve. To do so, we extend previous probabilistic approaches for in…

2013-07-14abs ↗pdf ↗

A new growth model for dynamic networks using Markovian latent points.

problem Modeling temporal dynamic networks with latent points and distances.
method Markovian latent space dynamic with Euclidean Sphere sampling and connection probabilities based on geodesic distances.
result Theoretical guarantees for non-parametric estimation of the latitude and envelope functions.

Study learns linear system dynamics from noisy bilinear data.

problem Learning linear dynamics from bilinear observations with process and measurement noise.
method Regression with Kronecker product design, data-dependent and independent error bounds.
result Upper bounds on statistical error rates and sample complexity for learning dynamics matrices.

CoCoRL learns safe constraints from demonstrations with unknown rewards.

problem Learning safe constraints from demonstrations with different unknown rewards.
method Convex Constraint Learning for Reinforcement Learning (CoCoRL) constructs a convex safe set based on demonstrations.
result CoCoRL learns constraints that lead to safe driving behavior and can safely transfer to different tasks and environments.

Study on identifying and inferring nonlinear dynamics on unknown networks.

problem Identifying network structure in nonlinear dynamic systems with unknown interactions.
method Showed network structure is not generically identified, requiring sufficient spectral heterogeneity. Developed necessary and sufficient conditions for identification and proposed a semiparametric estimator.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for identification of network structure in nonlinear dynamic systems.

This paper considers portfolio construction in a dynamic setting. We specify a loss function comprised of utility and complexity components with an unknown tradeoff parameter. We develop a novel regret-based criterion for selecting the tradeoff parameter to construct optimal sparse portfolios over time.

2017-06-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Efficiently learns MFC systems with unknown dynamics.

problem Learning in multi-agent systems with non-stationary interactions and combinatorial state/action spaces.
method Model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, M3UCRLM^3-UCRL, balancing exploration and exploitation.
result First general regret bounds for model-based reinforcement learning of MFC systems.

The optimal predictor for a linear dynamical system (with hidden state and Gaussian noise) takes the form of an autoregressive linear filter, namely the Kalman filter. However, a fundamental problem in reinforcement learning and control theory is to make optimal predictions in an unknown dynamical system. To this end, …

2019-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

In the present paper, we studied a Dynamic Stochastic Block Model (DSBM) under the assumptions that the connection probabilities, as functions of time, are smooth and that at most ss nodes can switch their class memberships between two consecutive time points. We estimate the edge probability tensor by a kernel-type p…

2017-05-02abs ↗pdf ↗