arXiv research

The common assumption of universal behavior in stock market data can sometimes lead to false conclusions. In statistical physics, the Hurst exponents characterizing long-range correlations are often closely related to universal exponents. We show, that in the case of time series of the traded value, these Hurst exponen…

We investigated the critical dynamics on the daily Taiwan stock exchange index (TSE) from 1971 to 2005, and the 5-min intraday data from 1996 to 2005. A global persistence exponent $θ_{p}$ was defined for non-equilibrium critical phenomena \cite{Janssen,Majumdar}, and describing dynamic behavior in an economic index \c…

A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is investigated on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis and their generalizations to higher orders. Non-universal dynamics have been found not only in $α$ exponents diff…

Study free energy in spherical spin glasses, proving universality dichotomy.

Study shows exponential growth of Laplacian determinant on random hyperbolic surfaces.

Superposition accelerates training to a universal power-law exponent.

Random subgroups in hyperbolic spaces have full limit sets and bounded critical exponents.

There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets in the sense that th…

We characterize the asymptotic performance of nonparametric one- and two-sample testing. The exponential decay rate or error exponent of the type-II error probability is used as the asymptotic performance metric, and an optimal test achieves the maximum rate subject to a constant level constraint on the type-I error pr…

Paper relaxes symmetry conditions for universal feature selection in noisy data.

We conclude from an analysis of high resolution NYSE data that the distribution of the traded value $f_i$ (or volume) has a finite variance $σ_i$ for the very large majority of stocks $i$, and the distribution itself is non-universal across stocks. The Hurst exponent of the same time series displays a crossover from we…

This paper is motivated by a general question: for which values of k and n is the universal Burnside kei of k generators and Kei "exponent" n, $\bar Q(k,n)$, finite? It is known (starting from the work of M. Takasaki (1942)) that $\bar Q(2,n)$ is isomorphic to the dihedral quandle Z_n and $\bar Q(3,3)$ is isomorphic to…

Power laws detected in financial data, modeled with random multipliers.

An exclusion particle model is considered as a highly simplified model of a limit order market. Its price behavior reproduces the well known crossover from over-diffusion (Hurst exponent H>1/2) to diffusion (H=1/2) when the time horizon is increased, provided that orders are allowed to be canceled. For early times a ma…

Study confirms the square-root law in price impact across Tokyo stocks.

New geometric insights reveal the persistence distribution in spin systems.

We present evidence, that if a large enough set of high resolution stock market data is analyzed, certain analogies with physics -- such as scaling and universality -- fail to capture the full complexity of such data. Despite earlier expectations, the mean value per trade, the mean number of trades per minute and the m…

We investigate the correlation properties of transaction data from the New York Stock Exchange. The trading activity f(t) of each stock displays a crossover from weaker to stronger correlations at time scales 60-390 minutes. In both regimes, the Hurst exponent H depends logarithmically on the liquidity of the stock, me…

One of the principal statistical features characterizing the activity in financial markets is the distribution of fluctuations in market indicators such as the index. While the developed stock markets, e.g., the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) have been found to show heavy-tailed return distribution with a characteristi…

We show that canonical Carnot-Caratheodory spherical and horospherical metrics, which are defined on the boundary at infinity of every rank one symmetric space of non-compact type, are visual, i.e., they are bilipschitz equivalent with universal bilipschitz constants to the inverse exponent of Gromov products based in …

This work explains scaling laws as redundancy laws in deep learning.

We reanalyze high resolution data from the New York Stock Exchange and find a monotonic (but not power law) variation of the mean value per trade, the mean number of trades per minute and the mean trading activity with company capitalization. We show that the second moment of the traded value distribution is finite. Co…

New study shows non-adaptive trials can be outperformed by adaptive designs in treatment selection.

Modeling financial markets as gas molecules, the paper predicts phase transitions similar to water and steam.

We investigate statistical properties of daily international market indices of seven countries, and high-frequency $S&P500$ and KOSDAQ data, by using the detrended fluctuation method and the surrogate test. We have found that the returns of international stock market indices of seven countries follow a universal power-…

We consider the structure functions S^(q)(T), i.e. the moments of order q of the increments X(t+T)-X(t) of the Foreign Exchange rate X(t) which give clear evidence of scaling (S^(q)(T)~T^z(q)). We demonstrate that the nonlinearity of the observed scaling exponent z(q) is incompatible with monofractal additive stochasti…

The growth of business firms is an example of a system of complex interacting units that resembles complex interacting systems in nature such as earthquakes. Remarkably, work in econophysics has provided evidence that the statistical properties of the growth of business firms follow the same sorts of power laws that ch…

A ML model accurately replicates chaotic dynamics across various parameters.

Given two or more Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with the same or similar architectures, and trained on the same dataset, but trained with different solvers, parameters, hyper-parameters, regularization, etc., can we predict which DNN will have the best test accuracy, and can we do so without peeking at the test data? In …

Identifying behavior that is relatively invariant under different conditions is a challenging task in far-from-equilibrium complex systems. As an example of how the existence of a semi-invariant signature can be masked by the heterogeneity in the properties of the components comprising such systems, we consider the exc…

We empirically verify that the market capitalisations of coins and tokens in the cryptocurrency universe follow power-law distributions with significantly different values, with the tail exponent falling between 0.5 and 0.7 for coins, and between 1.0 and 1.3 for tokens. We provide a rationale for this, based on a simpl…

Study proves stability of big bang singularity in complex system.

Investigations of inverse statistics (a concept borrowed from turbulence) in stock markets, exemplified with filtered Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, have uncovered a novel stylized fact that the distribution of exit time follows a power law $p(τ_ρ) \sim τρ^{-α}$ with $α\approx 1.5$ at large $τ_ρ$ an…

This study reveals statistical patterns in ERC20 token transactions on Ethereum blockchain.

The investigations of financial markets from a complex network perspective have unveiled many phenomenological properties, in which the majority of these studies map the financial markets into one complex network. In this work, we investigate 30 world stock market indices through their visibility graphs by adopting the…

Detection of power-law behavior and studies of scaling exponents uncover the characteristics of complexity in many real world phenomena. The complexity of financial markets has always presented challenging issues and provided interesting findings, such as the inverse cubic law in the tails of stock price fluctuation di…

New findings show neural network training loss follows a power law over time.

LLMs learn peaked distributions slowly due to power-law losses.

For many externally driven complex systems neither the noisy driving force, nor the internal dynamics are a priori known. Here we focus on systems for which the time dependent activity of a large number of components can be monitored, allowing us to separate each signal into a component attributed to the external drivi…

We analyze the fluctuations in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 152 countries for the period 1950--1992. We find that (i) the distribution of annual growth rates for countries of a given GDP decays with ``fatter'' tails than for a Gaussian, and (ii) the width of the distribution scales as a power law of GDP with a s…

Dropout schedules can be optimized to significantly reduce model test loss.

Study of Lévy flights on Zoll surfaces, revealing geometric information.

The z-transform technique is used to investigate the model for distribution of high-tax payers, which is proposed by two of the authors (K. Y and S. M) and others. Our analysis shows an asymptotic power-law of this model with the exponent -5/2 when a total ``mass'' has a certain critical value. Below the critical value…

Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network we argue that the scaled link weight distribution has an approximate log-normal…

Study confirms financial bubbles' common patterns in isolated markets.

Classic studies of the probability density of price fluctuations $g$ for stocks and foreign exchanges of several highly developed economies have been interpreted using a {\it power-law} probability density function $P(g) \sim g^{-(α+1)}$ with exponent values $α> 2$, which are outside the Lévy-stable regime $0 < α< 2$. …

DS-GDA solves nonconvex-nonconcave problems without regularity conditions.

Study shows a specific Carnot group violates a curvature exponent bound.