Study shows fiduciary duty reduces municipal bond yields by 9% after SEC rule.
problem Effect of fiduciary duty on municipal bond yields and fees.
method Difference-in-differences analysis using hand-collected data.
result Bond yields decrease by 9% after SEC rule, but smaller issuers see increased borrowing costs.
Paper uses RL for better credit scoring and underwriting.
problem Traditional underwriting methods are ungeneralizable in complex scenarios.
method Adapts RL principles for credit scoring, incorporating action space renewal and multi-choice actions.
result RL-based algorithms outperform traditional methods in aligned data scenarios.
CATNet predicts CAT bond spreads using graph-based deep learning.
problem Complex, relational data in CAT bonds not well captured by traditional models.
method CATNet applies R-GCN to CAT bond primary market as a graph.
result CATNet outperforms Random Forest and XGBoost benchmarks.
Method debiases alternative data for fair credit underwriting.
problem Bias in alternative data affecting credit underwriting fairness.
method Causal inference applied to machine learning models.
result Improves model accuracy across racial groups without discrimination.
The paper models insurance market dynamics under uncertainty and financial frictions.
problem Modeling insurer behavior under uncertainty and financial frictions.
method Dynamic equilibrium model of insurance market with competitive insurers maximizing shareholder value.
result Investment can lead to lower insurance prices and negative loadings under certain conditions.
The paper examines how insurers manage risks and liquidity in a dynamic market.
problem Model uncertainty in insurance pricing and competitive equilibrium.
method Analyzes insurers' robustness preferences and optimization strategies for underwriting and liquidity management.
result Robust insurance pricing leads to higher premiums and equity valuations compared to a benchmark.
We study a continuous-time asset-allocation problem for an insurance firm that backs up liabilities from multiple non-life business lines with underwriting profits and investment income. The insurance risks are captured via a multidimensional jump-diffusion process with a multivariate compound Poisson process with depe…
A new runtime for AI agents calculates risks in real-time.
problem Managing risks and liabilities in autonomous AI actions.
method A time-consistent counterfactual actuarial layer with explicit underwriting boundaries.
result Establishes a well-defined toll and guarantees executed-action budgets.
Study insurance pricing under correlation ambiguity without increasing prices or reducing utility.
problem Understanding the dependence structure between insurance and financial risks.
method Dynamic equilibrium analysis of insurance pricing with worst-case beliefs.
result Correlation ambiguity does not necessarily increase insurance prices or reduce insurers' utility.
The paper examines how decentralized credit curators have taken over risk management from traditional protocols.
problem Risk management in decentralized credit has shifted from centralized protocols to decentralized curators.
method Analysis of ERC 4626 vaults and third-party curators, focusing on capital utilization, concentration, and fee margins.
result Curators have a significant impact on the risk profile of decentralized credit systems, with a small set of curators handling a disproportionate share of system TVL.
The paper examines insurance market dynamics and optimal regulation.
problem Equilibrium outcomes in dynamic insurance markets.
method Analyzes three equilibrium outcomes: positive, zero, and market failure.
result Insurers may accept underwriting losses by investing profits, especially with negative correlations.
Framework insures AI actions with reserve capital, preventing loss.
problem Ensuring safety and accountability for AI actions with varying side effects.
method Developed Actuarial Action Interface (AAI) and Authority Frontier to price and gate AI actions.
result Found common refusal and release patterns across domains, with varying required reserve capital.
Paper proposes a new reserving model using machine learning techniques.
problem Managing uncertainties in premium sufficiency and reserves for future claims.
method Stacked model combining Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Networks, and log-normal approach.
result The proposed model improves traditional reserving techniques, leading to more accurate reserving risk assessment.
AI improves MSME credit scoring using bank statement data.
problem Lack of access to financing for MSMEs due to traditional credit scoring methods.
method Developed a cash flow-based pipeline using bank statement data for machine learning credit scoring.
result Bank statement features significantly improve credit scoring models, achieving AUROC of 0.806.
A framework converts spatial data into embeddings for insurance risk modelling.
problem Improving underwriting precision and risk management in insurance with spatial data.
method Multi-view contrastive learning framework for generating spatial embeddings.
result Spatial embeddings consistently improve predictive accuracy across various models.
Study classifies liability insurance policies using machine learning.
problem Classifying liability insurance policies with or without claims.
method Used machine learning models like nearest neighbour and logistic regression on Actuarial Challenge dataset.
result Models accurately classified policies into claims and non-claims groups.
A new model predicts bid-ask spread dynamics in financial markets.
problem Capturing the self-exciting nature of bid-ask spread changes.
method State-dependent Spread Hawkes model (SDSH) incorporating various spread jump sizes and current state impact.
result The SDSH model accurately forecasts spread values at short-term horizons.
Bid-ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect and the multifractal nature. By investigating the autocorrelation functi…
The paper uses moment matching method for pricing spread options under Lévy models.
problem Pricing spread options under Lévy models with mean-variance mixture.
method Moment matching method applied to Lévy models with mean-variance mixture.
result Obtains semi-closed form formulas for spread option prices.
We explain a persistent cost-of-carry spread in EUA market and suggest ECB policy change.
problem Persistent cost-of-carry spread in EUA market.
method Cointegration analysis of EUA spread with credit spread and risk-free rate.
result Cointegration found between EUA spread, credit spread, and risk-free rate.
In the framework of Embedded Value new standards, namely the MCEV norms, the latest principles published in June 2008 address the issue of market and underwriting risks measurement by using stochastic models of projection and valorization. Knowing that stochastic models particularly data-consuming, the question which c…
We establish that, over certain ground fields, the set of osculating tangents of Cayley's ruled cubic surface gives rise to a (maximal partial) spread which is also a dual (maximal partial) spread. It is precisely the Betten-Walker spreads that allow for this construction. Every infinite Betten-Walker spread is not an …
We study the relationship between price spread, volatility and trading volume. We find that spread forms as a result of interplay between order liquidity and order impact. When trading volume is small adding more liquidity helps improve price accuracy and reduce spread, but after some point additional liquidity begins …
We introduce nonlinear higher-order label spreading for semi-supervised learning.
problem Efficient semi-supervised learning on graphs with complex label spreading.
method We add nonlinearity to label spreading through higher-order graph structures, proving convergence and demonstrating efficiency on various datasets.
result Our nonlinear higher-order label spreading algorithm converges to the global solution and performs favorably compared to classical methods.
New approximations for Asian basket spread options using stochastic Taylor expansions.
problem Pricing Asian basket spread options under the Black-Scholes model.
method Stochastic Taylor expansion applied to a log-normal proxy model.
result Highly accurate approximations for Asian and spread options, without numerical integration.
The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or th…
Study analyzes price response and spread impact in foreign exchange markets.
problem Understanding deviations from Markovian behavior in foreign exchange markets.
method Detailed large-scale data analysis of price response functions for different years and time scales, using pip bid-ask spread definition.
result Large pip spreads significantly impact price response in foreign exchange markets.
The aim of this paper is to introduce a method for computing the allocated Solvency II Capital Requirement (SCR) of each Risk which the company is exposed to, taking in account for the diversification effect among different risks. The method suggested is based on the Euler principle. We show that it has very suitable p…
Machine learning fails to improve recession prediction with yield spread.
problem Improving recession prediction using yield spread selection.
method Machine learning algorithm to identify best maturity pair and coefficients.
result Machine learning does not significantly improve prediction of recession.
Model estimates LIBOR rates and finds COVID-19 spread spike due to credit risk.
problem Estimating LIBOR rates and understanding the factors affecting them.
method Developed a joint model for various LIBOR-related rates and used it to decompose spreads.
result Credit risk mainly caused the spike in LIBOR-OIS spread during the COVID-19 onset, with equal contributions from credit and funding-liquidity risks on average.
The term structure of credit spreads is studied with an aim to predict its future movements. A completely new approach to tackle this problem is presented, which utilizes nonlinear parametric models. The Brain-Cousens regression model with five parameters is chosen to describe the term structure of credit spreads. Furt…
Deep learning models predict COVID-19 spread.
problem Predicting the spread of COVID-19 to mitigate its impact.
method Proposed DSPM and NRM models trained on 19.53M cases.
result Superior prediction performance of proposed models.
New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.
problem Lack of continuous stochastic credit spread models and limited term structure models.
method Stochastic CIR++ model for default intensities in risk-neutral space.
result Model produces realistic credit spread term structure curves and consistent diffusion over time.
GPR models epidemic spread on logarithmic scale.
problem Modeling and predicting epidemic spread for policy decisions.
method Gaussian process regression (GPR) on logarithmic scale of infected cases.
result GPR predictions have high probability of being within 95% confidence interval for 94.29% of data.
We observe the effects of the three different events that cause spread changes in the order book, namely trades, deletions and placement of limit orders. By looking at the frequencies of the relative amounts of price changing events, we discover that deletions of orders open the bid-ask spread of a stock more often tha…
Paper models and forecasts intra-day electricity price spreads.
problem Forecasting intra-day price spreads for electricity traders and operators.
method Dynamic density functions based on skewed-t distributions, conditional on exogenous drivers.
result Best fitting and forecasting specifications selected using Pinball Loss function.
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
problem Predicting bid and ask price dynamics in high-frequency stock markets.
method Extended Hawkes process with zero intensities, spread-dependent intensities, and negative excitement.
result Spread-narrowing tendency, excitations caused by previous events, impact of flash crashes, and different market participant features.
We study the relaxation dynamics of the bid-ask spread and of the midprice after a sudden, large variation of the spread, corresponding to a temporary crisis of liquidity in a double auction financial market. We find that the spread decays very slowly to its normal value as a consequence of the strategic limit order pl…
Paper uses reinforcement learning to optimize bid-ask spreads in OTC markets.
problem Optimizing bid-ask spreads in over-the-counter markets with dynamic order sizes.
method Reinforcement learning to solve high-dimensional stochastic control problem.
result Optimal bid-ask spreads follow a Gaussian distribution under certain conditions.
We use high-frequency data of 1364 Chinese A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate the intraday patterns in the bid-ask spreads. The daily periodicity in the spread time series is confirmed by Lomb analysis and the intraday bid-ask spreads are found to exhibit L…
DeFi TrustBoost uses blockchain and AI to assess small business loans.
problem Assessing small business loans from low-wealth households.
method Combines blockchain and Explainable AI to ensure confidentiality, compliance, and security.
result Tamper-proof auditing and on-chain/off-chain data storage for financial organizations.
Paper forecasts recession indicators using yield spread models.
problem Forecasting the leading indicator of a recession using yield spread.
method Applied econometric time series and machine learning models to forecast yield spread.
result Parsimonious univariate ARIMA model outperforms richly parameterized VAR method.
The paper uses option theory to estimate corporate bond liquidity spreads.
problem Estimating liquidity spreads for corporate bonds.
method Option-theoretic approach considering risk-free rate volatility and credit risk.
result The model provides a robust tool for pricing illiquid bonds.
The global crisis of 2008 provoked a heightened interest among scientists to study the phenomenon, its propagation and negative consequences. The process of modelling the spread of a virus is commonly used in epidemiology. Conceptually, the spread of a disease among a population is similar to the contagion process in e…
The paper prices energy spread options using a complex stochastic model.
problem Pricing energy spread options with specific stochastic dynamics.
method Uses an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by variance gamma processes, applying the Esscher transform and FFT method.
result Derives an analytical formula for pricing forwards and spread options.
In this work, we provide a framework linking microstructural properties of an asset to the tick value of the exchange. In particular, we bring to light a quantity, referred to as implicit spread, playing the role of spread for large tick assets, for which the effective spread is almost always equal to one tick. The rel…
Study of influenza A virus spread using mathematical equations.
problem Understanding the spread of influenza A virus infection.
method Mathematical model and analysis of dynamical system.
result Surface trajectories and asymptotic behavior of the system.
In this theoretical paper, I propose creation of a venture bank, able to multiply the capital of a venture capital firm by at least 47 times, without requiring access to the Federal Reserve or other central bank apart from settlement. This concept rests on obtaining default swap instruments on loans in order to create …