A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Polynomial-time method solves complex combinatorial semi-bandits.
New algorithm reduces combinatorial semi-bandit regret efficiently.
Deep learning identifies space objects from uncorrelated observations.
Study tests adequacy of FARIMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent errors.
We present a simple and general result that the sign of the variations or increments of uncorrelated times series are predictable with a remarkably high success probability of 75% for symmetric sign distributions. The origin of this paradoxical result is explained in details. We also present some tests on synthetic, fi…
This paper tackles unpaired data in multi-view learning, proposing a new framework and models.
New model selects uncorrelated and discriminative features for unsupervised feature selection.
Improved option pricing for SABR model using Gauss-Hermite quadrature.
State entropy regularization improves robustness in reinforcement learning, especially under structured perturbations.
We study the mass at the origin in the uncorrelated SABR stochastic volatility model, and derive several tractable expressions, in particular when time becomes small or large. As an application--in fact the original motivation for this paper--we derive small-strike expansions for the implied volatility when the maturit…
We formulate and analyze a graphical model selection method for inferring the conditional independence graph of a high-dimensional nonstationary Gaussian random process (time series) from a finite-length observation. The observed process samples are assumed uncorrelated over time and having a time-varying marginal dist…
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
In this paper we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving-average (SARMA) models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent.We relax the standard independence assumption on the error term in order to extend the range …
Markowitz' celebrated optimal portfolio theory generally fails to deliver out-of-sample diversification. In this note, we propose a new portfolio construction strategy based on symmetry arguments only, leading to "Eigenrisk Parity" portfolios that achieve equal realized risk on all the principal components of the covar…
Efficiently selects predictors in sparse regression without approximations.
This paper introduces a novel framework for generative models based on Restricted Kernel Machines (RKMs) with joint multi-view generation and uncorrelated feature learning, called Gen-RKM. To enable joint multi-view generation, this mechanism uses a shared representation of data from various views. Furthermore, the mod…
Recently, the visibility graph has been introduced as a novel view for analyzing time series, which maps it to a complex network. In this paper, we introduce new algorithm of visibility, "cross-visibility", which reveals the conjugation of two coupled time series. The correspondence between the two time series is mappe…
Multivariate Analysis (MVA) comprises a family of well-known methods for feature extraction that exploit correlations among input variables of the data representation. One important property that is enjoyed by most such methods is uncorrelation among the extracted features. Recently, regularized versions of MVA methods…
Based on the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) and on the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) methods we investigate the origin of multifractality in the time series. Series fluctuating according to a qGaussian distribution, both uncorrelated and correlated in time, are used. For the uncorrelated …
Graphical lasso models ASR utterance dependencies for consistent WER estimation.
Anti-correlated noise improves machine learning model generalization.
Paper solves multi-dimensional passport option pricing problem using machine learning.
The paper maps time-series onto networks to reveal hidden joint information.
Paper presents a new framework for optimal asset and signal combination.
We investigated distributions of short term price trends for high frequency stock market data. A number of trends as a function of their lengths was measured. We found that such a distribution does not fit to results following from an uncorrelated stochastic process. We proposed a simple model with a memory that gives …
ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or (what economists lable as) white noise as is usual in regression analysis while assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH is inconsistent with uncorrelated increments, violating the i.i.d. and white ass…
We discuss martingales, detrending data, and the efficient market hypothesis for stochastic processes x(t) with arbitrary diffusion coefficients D(x,t). Beginning with x-independent drift coefficients R(t) we show that Martingale stochastic processes generate uncorrelated, generally nonstationary increments. Generally,…
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a popular method for projecting data onto uncorrelated components in lower dimension, although the optimal number of components is not specified. Likewise, multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm is a popular PCA-based method for estimating directions of arrival (DOAs) of …
Researchers use quantum chaos and RMT to analyze turbulence, revealing unique scaling laws.
In this work, we propose a subspace-based algorithm for DOA estimation which iteratively reduces the disturbance factors of the estimated data covariance matrix and incorporates prior knowledge which is gradually obtained on line. An analysis of the MSE of the reshaped data covariance matrix is carried out along with c…
New method identifies structural parameters without assuming uncorrelated errors.
A measure called relative cluster entropy distinguishes between correlated and uncorrelated sequences.
In this paper, we establish sample path large and moderate deviation principles for log-price processes in Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and study the asymptotic behavior of exit probabilities, call pricing functions, and the implied volatility. In addition, we prove that if the volatility function in an uncor…
Reward hacking exploits misspecified rewards, affecting agent capabilities and true performance.
Growth-optimal portfolios are guaranteed to accumulate higher wealth than any other investment strategy in the long run. However, they tend to be risky in the short term. For serially uncorrelated markets, similar portfolios with more robust guarantees have been recently proposed. This paper extends these robust portfo…
Paper introduces PRMs to learn non-Markovian stochastic rewards for reinforcement learning.
Paper addresses reward learning issues in RL, improving both under- and over-estimation.
This work analyzes the value of future reward information in RL.
We are often interested in explaining data through a set of hidden factors or features. When the number of hidden features is unknown, the Indian Buffet Process (IBP) is a nonparametric latent feature model that does not bound the number of active features in dataset. However, the IBP assumes that all latent features a…
In this paper, we obtain asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the implied volatility associated with a European call pricing function. We show that these formulas imply Lee's moment formulas for the implied volatility and the tail-wing formulas due to Benaim and Friz. In addition, we analyze Pareto-type tails o…
Self-supervised reward prediction improves RL in sparse reward settings.
The study categorizes reward errors in reinforcement learning, finding some can be beneficial.
Reward collapse occurs when ranking-based reward models yield uniform rewards for different prompts.
Reward models need more than just accuracy for effective RLHF.
Proposes a method to boost deep reinforcement learning with sparse rewards.
Action guidance helps agents learn true objectives in games with sparse rewards.
New RL method uses distance between states instead of rewards for sparse reward environments.