A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study tests adequacy of FARIMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent errors.
In this paper we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving-average (SARMA) models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent.We relax the standard independence assumption on the error term in order to extend the range …
Graphical lasso models ASR utterance dependencies for consistent WER estimation.
In this paper, we obtain asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the implied volatility associated with a European call pricing function. We show that these formulas imply Lee's moment formulas for the implied volatility and the tail-wing formulas due to Benaim and Friz. In addition, we analyze Pareto-type tails o…
Deep learning identifies space objects from uncorrelated observations.
New method identifies structural parameters without assuming uncorrelated errors.
New bounds for kernel regression under non-Gaussian noise.
We present a simple and general result that the sign of the variations or increments of uncorrelated times series are predictable with a remarkably high success probability of 75% for symmetric sign distributions. The origin of this paradoxical result is explained in details. We also present some tests on synthetic, fi…
This paper tackles unpaired data in multi-view learning, proposing a new framework and models.
Proposes adjusting neural network errors for time series forecasting.
New model selects uncorrelated and discriminative features for unsupervised feature selection.
We study least squares linear regression over uncorrelated Gaussian features that are selected in order of decreasing variance. When the number of selected features is at most the sample size , the estimator under consideration coincides with the principal component regression estimator; when , the esti…
Improved option pricing for SABR model using Gauss-Hermite quadrature.
This article presents a finite element method (FEM) for a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) to price two-asset options with underlying price processes modeled by an exponential Levy process. We provide a variational formulation in a weighted Sobolev space, and establish existence and uniqueness of the FEM-ba…
Polynomial-time method solves complex combinatorial semi-bandits.
We study the mass at the origin in the uncorrelated SABR stochastic volatility model, and derive several tractable expressions, in particular when time becomes small or large. As an application--in fact the original motivation for this paper--we derive small-strike expansions for the implied volatility when the maturit…
In an efficient stock market, the log-returns and their time-dependent variances are often jointly modelled by stochastic volatility models (SVMs). Many SVMs assume that errors in log-return and latent volatility process are uncorrelated, which is unrealistic. It turns out that if a non-zero correlation is included in …
We study the total least squares (TLS) problem that generalizes least squares regression by allowing measurement errors in both dependent and independent variables. TLS is widely used in applied fields including computer vision, system identification and econometrics. The special case when all dependent and independent…
In the present paper, a decomposition formula for the call price due to Alòs is transformed into a Taylor type formula containing an infinite series with stochastic terms. The new decomposition may be considered as an alternative to the decomposition of the call price found in a recent paper of Alòs, Gatheral and Radoi…
We formulate and analyze a graphical model selection method for inferring the conditional independence graph of a high-dimensional nonstationary Gaussian random process (time series) from a finite-length observation. The observed process samples are assumed uncorrelated over time and having a time-varying marginal dist…
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
New framework improves classification accuracy using Pillai's trace and ULDA.
In training speech recognition systems, labeling audio clips can be expensive, and not all data is equally valuable. Active learning aims to label only the most informative samples to reduce cost. For speech recognition, confidence scores and other likelihood-based active learning methods have been shown to be effectiv…
Markowitz' celebrated optimal portfolio theory generally fails to deliver out-of-sample diversification. In this note, we propose a new portfolio construction strategy based on symmetry arguments only, leading to "Eigenrisk Parity" portfolios that achieve equal realized risk on all the principal components of the covar…
Efficiently selects predictors in sparse regression without approximations.
PULSE estimator improves prediction in causal inference with bounded interventions.
Many practical applications of reinforcement learning constrain agents to learn from a fixed batch of data which has already been gathered, without offering further possibility for data collection. In this paper, we demonstrate that due to errors introduced by extrapolation, standard off-policy deep reinforcement learn…
This paper introduces a novel framework for generative models based on Restricted Kernel Machines (RKMs) with joint multi-view generation and uncorrelated feature learning, called Gen-RKM. To enable joint multi-view generation, this mechanism uses a shared representation of data from various views. Furthermore, the mod…
Recently, the visibility graph has been introduced as a novel view for analyzing time series, which maps it to a complex network. In this paper, we introduce new algorithm of visibility, "cross-visibility", which reveals the conjugation of two coupled time series. The correspondence between the two time series is mappe…
This paper studies ordered weighted L1 (OWL) norm regularization for sparse estimation problems with strongly correlated variables. We prove sufficient conditions for clustering based on the correlation/colinearity of variables using the OWL norm, of which the so-called OSCAR is a particular case. Our results extend pr…
Random Forests adapted for dependent data using GLS.
Multivariate Analysis (MVA) comprises a family of well-known methods for feature extraction that exploit correlations among input variables of the data representation. One important property that is enjoyed by most such methods is uncorrelation among the extracted features. Recently, regularized versions of MVA methods…
Based on the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) and on the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) methods we investigate the origin of multifractality in the time series. Series fluctuating according to a qGaussian distribution, both uncorrelated and correlated in time, are used. For the uncorrelated …
Anti-correlated noise improves machine learning model generalization.
Diffusion models simulate molecular dynamics with adjustable accuracy.
Improved image learning using elliptically contoured tensor-variate distributions.
Paper solves multi-dimensional passport option pricing problem using machine learning.
Sparse regularization such as regularization is a quite powerful and widely used strategy for high dimensional learning problems. The effectiveness of sparse regularization has been supported practically and theoretically by several studies. However, one of the biggest issues in sparse regularization is that i…
The paper maps time-series onto networks to reveal hidden joint information.
Paper presents a new framework for optimal asset and signal combination.
We investigate the use of alternative divergences to Kullback-Leibler (KL) in variational inference(VI), based on the Variational Dropout \cite{kingma2015}. Stochastic gradient variational Bayes (SGVB) \cite{aevb} is a general framework for estimating the evidence lower bound (ELBO) in Variational Bayes. In this work, …
Unified framework for large-scale hypothesis testing with confounders.
New algorithm reduces combinatorial semi-bandit regret efficiently.
We investigated distributions of short term price trends for high frequency stock market data. A number of trends as a function of their lengths was measured. We found that such a distribution does not fit to results following from an uncorrelated stochastic process. We proposed a simple model with a memory that gives …
ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or (what economists lable as) white noise as is usual in regression analysis while assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH is inconsistent with uncorrelated increments, violating the i.i.d. and white ass…
We discuss martingales, detrending data, and the efficient market hypothesis for stochastic processes x(t) with arbitrary diffusion coefficients D(x,t). Beginning with x-independent drift coefficients R(t) we show that Martingale stochastic processes generate uncorrelated, generally nonstationary increments. Generally,…
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
New method exploits independence in instrumental variable models for better causal inference.