This paper uses a diffusion model to forecast electrical loads with uncertainty.
problem Uncertainties in electrical load forecasting due to renewable energy and external events.
method Diffusion-based Seq2Seq structure for epistemic uncertainty and robust additive Cauchy distribution for aleatoric uncertainty.
result Ability to separate and quantify both types of uncertainties in load forecasting.
When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for example, uncertainty that is intrinsic to the training set may be well-handled by a B…
Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.
problem Inaccurate estimation of project cost contingency reserves due to ignoring different types of uncertainty.
method Quantitative determination of project cost contingency reserves using Monte Carlo Simulation considering aleatoric, stochastic, and epistemic uncertainties.
result The proposed method provides more accurate contingency reserves that align with actual project risks.
Develops a framework to quantify uncertainties in multiple ML models.
problem Uncertainty in ML model predictions and model inputs.
method Develops a theoretical framework to decouple and transform uncertainties.
result Generates joint distribution of ML predictions considering uncertainties.
Alternative proofs for various inequalities on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Various functional inequalities on Riemannian manifolds.
method Generic functional inequality, Riccati pairs, solving Riccati-type ODE.
result Alternative proofs for multiple inequalities, including Hardy-type and Caccioppoli inequalities.
Proposes HetSNGP method for joint model and data uncertainty modeling.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for safety-critical applications.
method Jointly models model and data uncertainty with HetSNGP method.
result Outperforms baseline methods on challenging out-of-distribution datasets.
This paper examines sources of uncertainty in machine learning from a statistical perspective.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning models.
method A conceptual, basic science approach examining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
result Sources of uncertainty are diverse and cannot always be decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic.
Formulates superhedging under costs and uncertainty for continuous assets.
problem Superhedging with transaction costs and model uncertainty for continuous processes.
method New topological framework for continuous asset prices with parametric model uncertainty.
result Formulates a superhedging theorem in the presence of transaction costs and model uncertainty.
Reinforcement learning agents are faced with two types of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty stems from limited data and is useful for exploration, whereas aleatoric uncertainty arises from stochastic environments and must be accounted for in risk-sensitive applications. We highlight the challenges involved in simultan…
SON learns SPDE solutions and uncertainty from noisy data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in SPDEs with unknown model uncertainties.
method Combining DeepONet and SNNs, SON models stochasticity and predicts uncertainty.
result SON accurately captures solution structure and quantifies predictive uncertainty.
Study highlights how model choice affects uncertainty estimation in neural network regression.
problem Uncertainty estimation under model misspecification in neural network regression.
method Analyzed the impact of model choice on uncertainty estimation in neural network regression, focusing on aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Model misspecification leads to unreliable uncertainty estimates, highlighting the importance of choosing appropriate models.
Study finds uncertainty estimators weakly correlate with LLM hallucinations.
problem Characterizing the relationship between uncertainty estimators and LLM hallucinations.
method Systematic empirical study of diverse uncertainty estimators across hallucination types and benchmarks.
result Uncertainty estimators weakly correlate with LLM hallucinations, depending on hallucination type and LLM.
Method provides formal guarantees for decomposing model uncertainty.
problem Decomposing model uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components.
method Higher-order calibration using k-snapshots.
result Formal guarantees for aleatoric uncertainty matching real-world distribution.
This paper analyzes uncertainty in DFN simulations using sensitivity analysis.
problem Uncertainty in estimating QoI due to epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in DFN simulations.
method Sensitivity analysis to attribute uncertainty to input parameters and aleatoric uncertainty.
result Characterizes uncertainty in DFN flow simulations with heteroskedastic aleatoric uncertainty.
New framework for robust hypothesis testing using Sinkhorn uncertainty sets.
problem Non-convex robust hypothesis testing problem.
method Exact mixed-integer exponential conic reformulation and convex approximation.
result Satisfactory testing performance and computational efficiency.
Study shows uncertainty calibration improves BO performance, but not as much as model type.
problem Effect of model uncertainties on Bayesian optimization performance.
method Extensive study comparing different surrogate models and their uncertainty calibration.
result Gaussian Processes outperform other models in BO, and uncertainty calibration does not significantly improve regret.
Unified Uncertainty Calibration improves AI predictions by combining different types of uncertainty.
problem AI classifiers struggle with uncertainty, leading to miscalibrated predictions and poor performance.
method Unified Uncertainty Calibration (U2C) combines aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties to improve prediction quality.
result U2C outperforms traditional reject-or-classify methods across various ImageNet benchmarks.
The study improves Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities on hyperbolic spaces.
problem Improving Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities on hyperbolic spaces.
method Establishing scale-dependent Poincaré-Hardy type identities and choosing suitable parameters, potentials, and vector fields.
result Derives new versions and substantially improves existing inequalities.
BO algorithms improve binary and preferential optimization by distinguishing between types of uncertainty.
problem Optimizing expensive functions with binary or pairwise comparisons.
method Proposed new acquisition functions distinguishing between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty.
result New acquisition functions outperform state-of-the-art heuristics in binary and preferential BO.
Cooperative model disentangles data uncertainties.
problem Disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in real-world data.
method Cooperatively trains a variance estimation network with a Bayesian neural network.
result Improves mean estimation and disentangles uncertainties.
Various strategies for active learning have been proposed in the machine learning literature. In uncertainty sampling, which is among the most popular approaches, the active learner sequentially queries the label of those instances for which its current prediction is maximally uncertain. The predictions as well as the …
Proposes a method to identify critical regions in neural networks using adversarial attacks.
problem Capturing uncertainty in neural networks near decision boundaries.
method Adversarial attack method to derive uncertainty from input perturbations.
result The proposed method outperforms other uncertainty methods in capturing model uncertainty.
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
This paper studies directed exploration for reinforcement learning agents by tracking uncertainty about the value of each available action. We identify two sources of uncertainty that are relevant for exploration. The first originates from limited data (parametric uncertainty), while the second originates from the dist…
Measuring uncertainty is a promising technique for detecting adversarial examples, crafted inputs on which the model predicts an incorrect class with high confidence. But many measures of uncertainty exist, including predictive en- tropy and mutual information, each capturing different types of uncertainty. We study th…
In this paper we investigate a utility maximization problem with drift uncertainty in a multivariate continuous-time Black-Scholes type financial market which may be incomplete. We impose a constraint on the admissible strategies that prevents a pure bond investment and we include uncertainty by means of ellipsoidal un…
BNP extends Neural Processes using bootstrap to better model uncertainty.
problem Limitation of NP in modeling stochastic processes with a single latent variable.
method Introduces BNP by incorporating bootstrap to estimate uncertainty without assuming a specific form.
result Demonstrates improved flexibility and robustness of BNP on various data types.
New fairness measures account for prediction uncertainties to detect bias.
problem Fairness of ML models is not well-defined and measures are limited.
method Introduce new fairness measures based on aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Uncertainty-based measures reveal bias not captured by existing measures.
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
Paper tackles robust offline RL for non-Markovian processes, improving efficiency and applicability.
problem Learning robust policies for non-Markovian decision processes with limited offline data.
method Proposes a novel algorithm with dataset distillation and LCB design for robust values, derived new dual forms, and introduces concentrability coefficients.
result Proves polynomial sample efficiency for finding ε-optimal robust policies.
A new framework for measuring uncertainty in machine learning models.
problem Uncertainty measures for second-order distributions in machine learning models have theoretical flaws.
method Formal criteria and a general framework based on the Wasserstein distance.
result The Wasserstein distance-based measure satisfies all proposed criteria for meaningful uncertainty measures.
Unified Bayesian framework for uncertainty quantification in mechanics.
problem Propagation of input uncertainties and inference of unknown parameters.
method Bayesian probability theory for forward and inverse problems.
result Unified theoretical framework for both forward and inverse UQ.
This paper compares uncertainty estimation methods for deep learning in autonomous vehicles.
problem Ensuring safety in autonomous vehicles through accurate uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A comparative survey of uncertainty quantification methods in deep neural networks.
result Different methods for uncertainty quantification in DNNs have advantages and downsides for specific AV tasks and types of uncertainty.
Bayesian method detects outliers and uncertain points in data.
problem Detecting outliers and uncertain points in data using Bayesian methods.
method Generative model of data curation for aleatoric uncertainty, combining with epistemic uncertainty and outlier exposure.
result Principled Bayesian approach outperforms methods using aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty alone.
Paper proposes a new method to quantify uncertainty in machine learning models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in multiclass classification models.
method Distance-based approach using Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs).
result Effective uncertainty measures for multiclass classification.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasin…
Paper proposes a new model to assess risks in energy storage systems considering both exogenous and endogenous uncertainties.
problem Current risk assessment ignores the stochastic nature of energy storage availability.
method Data-driven unified model with exogenous and endogenous uncertainty description for four types of generic energy storage.
result Comparative results show more severe risks for endogenous uncertainty, suggesting new strategies for system operators.
MAPIE provides uncertainty quantification for ML models.
problem Estimating uncertainties in ML model predictions.
method Conformal prediction methods for single-output regression and multi-class classification.
result Strong theoretical guarantees on marginal coverages.
This paper studies uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting models.
method Analysis of UQ methods from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, including statistical decision theory.
result Different UQ methods have different strengths and weaknesses, with Bayesian methods being more robust in mean prediction and frequentist methods providing more extensive coverage.
We present a method to quantify uncertainty in the predictions made by simulations of mathematical models that can be applied to a broad class of stochastic, discrete, and differential equation models. Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for determining how accurate the model predictions are and identifying which input …
Estimating global pairwise interaction effects, i.e., the difference between the joint effect and the sum of marginal effects of two input features, with uncertainty properly quantified, is centrally important in science applications. We propose a non-parametric probabilistic method for detecting interaction effects of…
Due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications, many of which are coming with safety requirements, the notion of uncertainty has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In particular, the idea of distinguishing between two importan…
New methods for quantifying insurance claim cost uncertainty using LightGBM and GLMs.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty in insurance claim costs.
method Proposed non-conformity measures for GLMs and GBMs with Tweedie loss.
result Locally weighted Pearson residuals outperform other methods in maintaining nominal coverage with smallest average width.
Framework for imputing time series data with uncertainty measures.
problem Handling missing values in time series data, especially in healthcare.
method Uncertainty-aware multivariate time series imputation framework.
result Selective imputation of less uncertain values improves downstream tasks.
Method estimates uncertainty in CT reconstructions.
problem Lack of accurate uncertainty estimates in deep-learning CT reconstructions.
method Linearised deep image prior with conjugate Gaussian-linear model error bars and Gaussian surrogate for TV regularisation.
result Method provides superior calibration of uncertainty estimates.
We define a generalized likelihood function based on uncertainty measures and show that maximizing such a likelihood function for different measures induces different types of classifiers. In the probabilistic framework, we obtain classifiers that optimize the cross-entropy function. In the possibilistic framework, we …
GEBM improves uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks.
problem Challenges in quantifying epistemic uncertainty in graph neural networks.
method Energy-based model (EBM) that aggregates uncertainty at different structural levels.
result Significantly improves predictive robustness and achieves best separation of in-distribution and out-of-distribution data.
We introduce a setup of model uncertainty in discrete time. In this setup we derive dual expressions for the super--replication prices of game options with upper semicontinuous payoffs. We show that the super--replication price is equal to the supremum over a special (non dominated) set of martingale measures, of the c…