USNRT uses tree-structured learning to improve uncertainty quantification of variance networks.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification of variance networks.
method Tree-structured local neural network model that partitions feature space into regions for training region-specific neural networks to predict mean and variance.
result USNRT shows superior performance in estimating uncertainty with variances on UCI datasets compared to recent methods.
JANET improves time series prediction with adaptive uncertainty regions.
problem Time series data's lack of exchangeability and multi-step prediction challenges.
method Proposes JANET, a framework for joint adaptive prediction regions with controlled error rates.
result Demonstrates superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse datasets.
Proposes CPO framework for robust decision-making with explainable uncertainty regions.
problem Overly conservative uncertainty regions in data-driven optimization lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Conformal-Predict-Then-Optimize (CPO) framework using conditional generative models and visual summaries.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and explainability in decision-making.
Optimizes ellipsoids for uncertainty regions in parameter estimation.
problem Learning minimal volume uncertainty ellipsoids for parameter estimation.
method Differentiable optimization approach using neural networks to approximate optimal ellipsoids.
result Approximately computed ellipsoids are smaller and more accurate than existing methods.
We report on time-varying network connectedness within three banking systems: North America, the EU, and ASEAN. The original method by Diebold and Yilmaz is improved by using exponentially weighted daily returns and ridge regularization on vector autoregression (VAR) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). We…
New algorithm improves graph-based active learning by identifying unexplored regions.
problem Improving graph-based active learning by identifying unexplored regions.
method Poisson Reweighted Laplacian Uncertainty Sampling (PWLL) with a diagonal perturbation.
result PWLL effectively identifies unexplored regions in graph-based data.
Localized uncertainty attacks target uncertain regions to create imperceptible adversarial examples.
problem Adversarial examples that are imperceptible to humans and strong under deterministic classifiers.
method Localized uncertainty attacks by perturbing uncertain regions, using predictive uncertainty or surrogate models.
result Localized uncertainty attacks produce strong adversarial examples that retain input similarity.
New algorithm improves deep learning stability with limited data.
problem Stability and robustness in reinforcement learning with scarce data.
method Uncertainty-aware trust region approach to policy optimization.
result Stable policy updates adapt to uncertainty levels during learning.
Bayesian framework for identifying localized regions of interest in dynamical systems.
problem Identifying regions of high-resolution uncertainty quantification in complex dynamical systems.
method Bayesian inference with Gaussian process surrogate and polynomial chaos expansion.
result Unified computational scheme reduces overall cost for uncertainty quantification.
A cubing strategy identifies stable hyperparameter regions for uncertainty quantification in spatial deep learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spatial deep learning models.
method Cubing-based diagnostic framework to recursively partition hyperparameter space and evaluate regions using scoring rules.
result Our approach produces competitive or superior predictive intervals compared to a statistical baseline model.
Proposes a method to identify critical regions in neural networks using adversarial attacks.
problem Capturing uncertainty in neural networks near decision boundaries.
method Adversarial attack method to derive uncertainty from input perturbations.
result The proposed method outperforms other uncertainty methods in capturing model uncertainty.
Paper introduces conformal prediction for reliable uncertainty quantification in landmark localization.
problem Systematic underestimation of total predictive uncertainty in landmark localization.
method Conformal prediction framework for multi-output regression, generating flexible prediction regions.
result Methods outperform existing approaches in validity and efficiency across 2D and 3D datasets.
Develops a category-theoretic approach to interpret conformal prediction.
problem Interpreting conformal prediction as a quantitative uncertainty tool.
method Category-theoretic approach to represent and decompose conformal prediction.
result Decomposes conformal prediction into two steps: predictive distributions and prediction regions.
VSPS creates flexible prediction regions for multi-target regression with guaranteed coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-target regression with complex distributions.
method Conditional normalizing flows with conformal calibration to identify dense regions.
result VSPS produces smaller, more informative prediction regions with robust coverage guarantees.
New method uses conformalization to create classification regions from ambiguous labels.
problem Creating provable guarantees in classification with uncertain labels.
method Conformal methods applied to credal regions for classification problems.
result New method provides smaller and more disentangled prediction sets.
Study on inventory management under uncertainty using smooth ambiguity preference.
problem Managing inventory under Knightian uncertainty with smooth ambiguity preference.
method Demonstrates continuous-time smooth ambiguity as the infinitesimal limit of Kalman-Bucy filtering with recursive robust utility. Solves forward-backward stochastic differential equations with quadratic growth to determine cost function. Derives value function and optimal control policy using variational inequalities and viscosity solutions. Transforms problem into two-dimensional singular control.
result Ambiguity drives decision-makers to act earlier, reducing the continuation region.
Bayesian optimization is a class of global optimization techniques. In Bayesian optimization, the underlying objective function is modeled as a realization of a Gaussian process. Although the Gaussian process assumption implies a random distribution of the Bayesian optimization outputs, quantification of this uncertain…
PaRCE estimates model confidence for CNNs across various uncertainties.
problem Limited holistic approach to estimating perception model confidence in CNNs.
method Probabilistic and reconstruction-based competency estimation.
result PaRCE best distinguishes between various types of samples and regions.
F-PACOH improves meta-learners' reliability in uncertain regions.
problem Overconfident uncertainty estimates in meta-learning.
method Meta-learning priors as stochastic processes in function space, directly steering predictions towards high epistemic uncertainty.
result Significantly outperforms other meta-learners in Bayesian Optimization.
We suggest a general approach to quantification of different forms of aleatoric uncertainty in regression tasks performed by artificial neural networks. It is based on the simultaneous training of two neural networks with a joint loss function and a specific hyperparameter λ>0 that allows for automatically detecting …
This paper introduces a new framework for quantifying predictive uncertainty for both data and models that relies on projecting the data into a Gaussian reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and transforming the data probability density function (PDF) in a way that quantifies the flow of its gradient as a topological…
EPICSCORE improves conformal scores by explicitly accounting for epistemic uncertainty.
problem Overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions due to lack of epistemic uncertainty.
method Model-agnostic approach using Bayesian techniques like Gaussian Processes, Dropout, and Regression Trees.
result Enhanced predictive intervals that adaptively expand in sparse data regions and maintain compact intervals in abundant data.
New algorithm quantifies uncertainty in regression models for complex data types.
problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models for complex data types.
method Model-free uncertainty quantification algorithm based on conditional depth measures and kernel mean embeddings.
result Provides faster convergence rates and non-asymptotic guarantees for prediction regions.
Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty in the output variable, using for example a quantile loss in Random Forests (Me…
CREDO assesses decision optimality under uncertainty without assuming a model.
problem Uncertainty in decision-making without reliable quantification of optimality.
method CREDO uses the inverse feasible region and conformal prediction balls to estimate decision optimality probability.
result CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality.
Spatially-aware metrics improve uncertainty evaluation in segmentation.
problem Uncertainty evaluation metrics treat voxels independently, ignoring spatial context.
method Proposed three spatially aware metrics incorporating structural and boundary information.
result Improved alignment with clinically important factors and better discrimination between uncertainty patterns.
Connects robust optimization to conformal prediction for uncertainty sets.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty in sensitive data.
method Defines Mahalanobis distance as a conformity score and generates conformal uncertainty sets.
result Conformal uncertainty sets provide valid and conservative ellipsoidal regions.
New method uses biased MD to create accurate MLIPs.
problem Creating a comprehensive data set for MLIPs.
method Bias MD by MLIP's energy uncertainty, using gradient-based uncertainties.
result Develops uniformly accurate MLIPs with lower computational cost.
DRF improves confidence and uncertainty assessment for multivariate conditional distributions.
problem Estimating multivariate conditional distributions with confidence and uncertainty.
method Developed a bootstrap approximation of the asymptotic distribution of DRF to derive inferential tools.
result Asymptotic coverage guarantees for confidence regions and hypothesis testing.
Bayesian approach improves uncertainty in deep learning models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Bayesian point of view, Gaussian approximability, semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises theorems.
result Bayesian credible regions have valid frequentist coverage, providing theoretical justification for deep learning.
Bayesian GNNs with temperature improve prediction efficiency in CP.
problem Efficiency of prediction sets in CP for GNNs.
method Introducing a temperature parameter into Bayesian GNNs within the CP framework.
result More efficient prediction sets achieved with the temperature parameter.
We describe a limitation in the expressiveness of the predictive uncertainty estimate given by mean-field variational inference (MFVI), a popular approximate inference method for Bayesian neural networks. In particular, MFVI fails to give calibrated uncertainty estimates in between separated regions of observations. Th…
Waldo method constructs valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference.
problem Constructing valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference with high-dimensional data.
method Reframes Wald test statistic and uses regression-based machinery for Neyman inversion.
result Waldo method produces conditionally valid and precise confidence regions.
When approximating a black-box function, sampling with active learning focussing on regions with non-linear responses tends to improve accuracy. We present the FLOLA-Voronoi method introduced previously for deterministic responses, and theoretically derive the impact of output uncertainty. The algorithm automatically p…
A new method improves efficiency of conformal prediction for ensemble models.
problem Efficiently estimating uncertainty for ensemble models without distributional assumptions.
method Proposes a multivariate score function to merge prediction regions of individual models, reducing conservatism.
result Demonstrates more efficient prediction regions compared to existing methods.
New method assesses financial and cyber risks under uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in risk assessment for financial and cyber systems.
method Combines stochastic approximation and distorted mix method to compute worst case average value at risk.
result Efficient algorithm for tail uncertainty in multivariate distributions.
New method improves uncertainty estimation in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem Underestimation of predictive uncertainty in Neural Linear Models (NLMs).
method Proposes a novel training method to capture useful predictive uncertainties and incorporate domain knowledge.
result Traditional training procedures for NLMs can drastically underestimate uncertainty in data-scarce regions.
Framework for confidence estimation in deep CT reconstructions.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning-based CT reconstructions.
method Sequential likelihood mixing framework with log-linear forward model.
result Deep models yield tighter confidence regions than classical methods.
Paper speeds up visualization of uncertain data.
problem High computational cost in reconstructing data uncertainties.
method Subdivide data spatially, adaptively reconstructing only necessary values, using GPR kernel and saved data observations to estimate upper bounds for level-crossing probabilities.
result Accurate estimation of value occurrence probabilities with low computation cost.
Bayesian optimization tackles constrained high-dimensional problems with penalties and trust regions.
problem Constrained optimization in high-dimensional black-box settings with expensive evaluations and complex feasibility regions.
method Penalty formulation, surrogate model, trust region strategy, Expected Improvement acquisition function.
result The proposed Trust Region method identifies high-quality feasible solutions with fewer evaluations and maintains stable performance.
MD-split+ creates locally valid prediction regions for complex data.
problem Localized prediction regions for complex data.
method Localized model performance-based partitioning of feature space X.
result MD-split+ creates valid prediction regions that scale to high dimensions.
Uncertainty principles such as Heisenberg's provide limits on the time-frequency concentration of a signal, and constitute an important theoretical tool for designing and evaluating linear signal transforms. Generalizations of such principles to the graph setting can inform dictionary design for graph signals, lead to …
We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or exponential families, it only requires knowledge about some mild regularity of the measu…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely employed in control and learning because of their principled treatment of uncertainty. However, tracking uncertainty for iterative, multi-step predictions in general leads to an analytically intractable problem. While approximation methods exist, they do not come with guarantees, mak…
Optimal transport improves multivariate prediction uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate learning tasks, especially in regression and classification.
method Introducing a novel Conformal Prediction procedure using optimal transport to handle multivariate score functions and construct flexible prediction regions.
result Ensures finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees for multivariate prediction sets.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
Develops a method for multivariate time series prediction intervals.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate time series forecasting.
method Conformal prediction method for multivariate time series.
result Empirically demonstrates valid coverage of prediction regions.
Dual random fields improve mineral potential predictions.
problem Limited understanding of multi-dimensional causalities and dependencies.
method Introduces dual random fields to pool response functions across the domain.
result Spatial inference and uncertainty assessment of response models and predictions.