Fortuna simplifies uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in deep learning models.
method Supports various calibration techniques including conformal prediction and scalable Bayesian inference.
result Simplifies benchmarking and builds robust AI systems.
Bayesian meta learning improves uncertainty quantification in regression.
problem Trusting uncertainty quantification in Bayesian regression.
method Trust-Bayes framework for Bayesian meta learning, optimizing for trustworthy uncertainty quantification.
result Lower bounds and sample complexity for trustworthy uncertainty quantification are characterized.
Unified taxonomy for ML uncertainty in physics, validated.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for physics.
method Unified taxonomy, principled validation tools.
result Illustrated validation tools with examples.
Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.
problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
Bayesian neural network models improve uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression models with heteroscedastic noise.
method Proposes Bayesian Last Layer neural network models and EM algorithms for parameter learning.
result Capable of disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
Uncertainty Toolbox aids in assessing and improving uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
problem Disparate evaluation metrics and implementations hinder direct comparison of uncertainty quantification results.
method Provides an open-source Python library for assessing, visualizing, and improving uncertainty quantification.
result Facilitates more accurate and comparable uncertainty quantification across different works.
This study introduces axioms to assess regression uncertainty measures.
problem Limited formal justification and evaluations of uncertainty measures in regression settings.
method Introduces axioms and analyzes entropy- and variance-based measures in a predictive exponential family context.
result Provides a principled foundation for reliable uncertainty assessment in regression.
New method quantifies uncertainty at class level for better decision-making.
problem Improving cost-sensitive decision-making in classification tasks.
method Label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures based on non-categorical metrics.
result Proposed measures adhere to desirable properties and improve uncertainty quantification.
Study benchmarks uncertainty quantification in chest X-ray classification.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification for medical AI models.
method Evaluation of 13 uncertainty quantification methods on MIMIC-CXR-JPG dataset.
result Insights into effectiveness and disentanglement of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
QUAM improves uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
problem Estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep learning models.
method QUAM identifies regions with high divergence between predictions and a reference model.
result QUAM has lower approximation error of epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods.
New GP-based method improves uncertainty quantification for causal functions.
problem Challenges in quantifying uncertainty for causal effects, especially for entire functions.
method GP-based approach using inner-product of observational functions in RKHS, with tractable posterior moments and calibration.
result Improves uncertainty quantification while maintaining causal effect estimation performance.
New method quantifies uncertainty in imaging problems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in imaging inverse problems.
method Equivariant bootstrapping based on parametric bootstrap algorithm.
result Delivers accurate high-dimensional confidence regions.
Paper improves uncertainty quantification in PINNs using error bounds and solution bundles.
problem Uncertainty quantification in PINNs for differential equation systems.
method Two-step procedure with Bayesian Neural Networks and heteroscedastic variance.
result Improved uncertainty estimation over PINNs solutions in differential equation systems.
Novel framework for uncertainty quantification in metric spaces.
problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models with metric responses.
method Developed algorithms for large datasets, agnostic to predictive models, with asymptotic and non-asymptotic guarantees.
result Asymptotic and non-asymptotic guarantees for special cases, demonstrated in clinical applications.
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
SMURF-THP improves Transformer Hawkes process models by providing uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification for Transformer Hawkes process predictions.
method Score matching for learning the score function of event arrival times.
result SMURF-THP outperforms likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration.
The paper argues that uncertainty quantification in ML is application-specific and proposes a flexible family of measures.
problem The need for proper uncertainty quantification in machine learning for safety-critical applications.
method A flexible family of uncertainty measures tailored to specific applications, using proper scoring rules to control characteristics.
result Different uncertainty measures are more suitable for different tasks (e.g., selective prediction, out-of-distribution detection, active learning).
SVGP KAN integrates uncertainty quantification into Kolmogorov-Arnold networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in scientific machine learning models.
method Sparse variational Gaussian process inference with Kolmogorov-Arnold topology.
result Demonstrated ability to distinguish aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in various scientific applications.
CUQ-GNN adapts uncertainty quantification for graph data, improving on GPN.
problem Defining meaningful uncertainty on graph data with domain-specific characteristics.
method Combines Graph Neural Networks with Posterior Networks using Normalizing Flows.
result CUQ-GNN produces more flexible and effective uncertainty estimates.
Develops a framework for inferring causal relationships in networked data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Extracting reliable inference from complex Hawkes network data with uncertainty.
method Statistical inference framework based on maximum likelihood estimation and concentration inequalities of continuous-time martingales.
result Provides a non-asymptotic confidence set for uncertainty quantification.
This work tackles uncertainty quantification in language models, proposing a principled approach.
problem Challenges in identifying task-specific uncertainties in large language models.
method Bayesian decision theory, focusing on a similarity measure between generated and hypothetical true responses.
result Derives a measure for epistemic uncertainty based on a missing data perspective.
Paper introduces conformal prediction for reliable uncertainty quantification in landmark localization.
problem Systematic underestimation of total predictive uncertainty in landmark localization.
method Conformal prediction framework for multi-output regression, generating flexible prediction regions.
result Methods outperform existing approaches in validity and efficiency across 2D and 3D datasets.
ProbFM provides principled uncertainty quantification for financial forecasting.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in financial applications.
method Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition using Deep Evidential Regression (DER).
result DER maintains competitive forecasting accuracy while providing explicit epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition.
Survey and framework for consistent uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Partial uncertainty coverage and inconsistencies in deep learning uncertainty quantification.
method Bayes' theorem and conditional probability densities applied to all major sources of uncertainty.
result Improved robustness and reliability of neural network predictions in real-world scenarios.
New method improves calibration of BayesCG for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Bayesian conjugate gradient method's poor calibration limits its utility.
method Randomized postiteration strategy to enhance posterior calibration.
result The method improves the distribution of posterior errors and enhances uncertainty quantification.
Proposes a new method for robust uncertainty quantification in regression tasks.
problem Robust uncertainty estimation for deep neural networks in regression tasks.
method Generalized Auxiliary Uncertainty Estimator (AuxUE) scheme, considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result DIDO method provides robust uncertainty estimates in noisy inputs, scalable to image-level and pixel-wise tasks.
New BNN architectures reduce computational cost for uncertainty quantification.
problem High computational cost in Bayesian neural networks.
method Partial trace-class Bayesian neural networks (PaTraC BNNs).
result Comparable uncertainty quantification with fewer parameters.
Survey on uncertainty in ML and DL, covering sources, quantification, and decision-making.
problem Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in ML and DL for risk-sensitive applications.
method Structured review of literature, categorizing uncertainty, assessing uncertainty quantification techniques.
result Broadened scope of uncertainty discussion and updated DL uncertainty quantification methods.
A method constructs a stochastic surrogate from dimensionality reduction results for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification.
problem High-dimensional uncertainty quantification with physics-based models.
method Constructs a stochastic surrogate model from dimensionality reduction results.
result Preserves convenience of sequential dimensionality reduction and Gaussian process regression while overcoming limitations.
Post-hoc uncertainty quantification improves on pre-trained neural networks without underfitting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks is underfitting or computationally demanding.
method Gaussian Process Activation function (GAPA) for neuron-level uncertainty, with two methods: GAPA-Free and GAPA-Variational.
result GAPA-Variational outperforms Laplace approximation on most datasets in uncertainty quantification metrics.
CP-ROC bands improve graph classification accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distributional shifts in graph classification.
method Conditional Prediction ROC (CP-ROC) bands for graph classification, developed for TGNNs and adaptable to GNNs.
result Statistically guaranteed coverage for CP-ROC under local exchangeability condition, improving prediction reliability.
Bayesian deep learning tackles uncertainty in high-dimensional systems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic partial differential equations.
method Bayesian neural network (BNN) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) for efficient sampling of posterior distributions.
result The method efficiently handles high-dimensional problems with almost independent computational cost.
Efficiently quantifies uncertainty in subsurface flow using neural networks guided by theory.
problem Uncertainty in dynamic subsurface flow predictions.
method Theory-guided Neural Network (TgNN) for efficient uncertainty quantification.
result TgNN surrogate improves efficiency of uncertainty quantification compared to MC method.
This paper compares uncertainty estimation methods for deep learning in autonomous vehicles.
problem Ensuring safety in autonomous vehicles through accurate uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A comparative survey of uncertainty quantification methods in deep neural networks.
result Different methods for uncertainty quantification in DNNs have advantages and downsides for specific AV tasks and types of uncertainty.
New method for efficient uncertainty quantification in DeepONets.
problem Efficient uncertainty quantification for DeepONets with limited and noisy data.
method Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for ensembles of DeepONets.
result Improved uncertainty estimates for DeepONet predictions.
This paper connects noise injection to Bayesian inference for neural networks, improving model uncertainty.
problem Improving the reliability and confidence of neural network predictions through uncertainty quantification.
method Introducing noise into neural network parameters during training and inference to estimate prediction uncertainty.
result The MCNI method outperforms baseline models in regression and classification tasks.
Paper introduces variance-based measures for second-order uncertainty quantification in classification problems.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions and decision-making.
method Second-order uncertainty quantification using variance-based measures.
result Variance-based measures effectively quantify uncertainty on a class-based level and are competitive with entropy-based measures.
The paper improves uncertainty quantification for node classification using distance-based regularization.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning models, especially for node classification tasks.
method Graph posterior networks (GPNs) with UCE loss function, followed by a distance-based regularization.
result The proposed distance-based regularization outperforms state-of-the-art methods in OOD detection and misclassification detection.
The paper analyzes uncertainty quantification in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
problem Analyzing uncertainty in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
method Theoretical guarantees and limitations for pointwise credible sets are derived for a rescaled Brownian motion prior with a sparse variational Gaussian process method.
result Theoretical characterization of asymptotic frequentist coverage for credible sets, distinguishing conservative and overconfident cases.
A new method reduces complexity and uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in complex neural networks.
method Condensed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (cSVGD) method.
result Condensed SVGD provides uncertainty quantification on parameters.
A new method decomposes subjective risk into epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
problem Uncertainty quantification in modeling decisions.
method Subjective risk decomposition using strictly proper loss.
result Recovery of classic uncertainty measures and new learning-theoretic connections.
BayesIMP combines multiple causal graphs to estimate average treatment effects with uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in causal inference from multiple datasets.
method Bayesian Interventional Mean Processes (BayesIMP) integrating probabilistic integration and kernel mean embeddings.
result Improvements in average treatment effect estimation over state-of-the-art methods.
New framework for robust uncertainty quantification in strategic settings.
problem Machine learning model predictions can be strategically altered by informed agents.
method Strategic Conformal Prediction framework
result Theoretical guarantees and experimental validation show remarkable effectiveness.
NCP improves deep classifier uncertainty quantification efficiency.
problem Uncertainty quantification for deep classifiers in high-stake applications.
method Neighborhood Conformal Prediction (NCP) algorithm.
result NCP produces smaller prediction sets than traditional CP methods.
Proposes a new method for localized uncertainty quantification in random forests using proximity measures.
problem Localized uncertainty quantification in random forests for improved reliability of predictions.
method Forming localized distributions of Out-Of-Bag (OOB) errors around nearby points defined by similarity measures (proximities) to create prediction intervals for regression and trust scores for classification.
result Localized prediction intervals and trust scores enhance model accuracy and provide higher accuracy-rejection AUC scores than competing methods.
Optimizes sampling for faster convergence in Bayesian experimental design and uncertainty quantification.
problem Efficiently selecting samples for faster convergence in Bayesian experimental design and uncertainty quantification.
method Output-weighted acquisition functions leveraging likelihood ratio to guide sampling towards relevant regions.
result Superiority of the proposed method in uncertainty quantification and rare event identification.
Paper introduces efficient uncertainty estimation in LLMs without multiple forward passes.
problem Accurate uncertainty quantification in LLMs remains challenging.
method Evidential Knowledge Distillation to create compact student models.
result Efficient uncertainty estimation achieved with single forward pass.